Predict how Canada will look like in 4 years

[Hal 9000]

I didn't have tie to peruse but I would be interested in finding out how you made a prediction into a fact.

I used a fact to make a prediction - big difference.

I don't expect you to understand the difference though.

[Hal 9000]

Hmmm, maybe you should look at your own post #190 then because that little piece of sarcasm certainly added nothing to the conversation so: TROLL!

But seriously, you have convinced me that CA's position in the moderation thread is the right one.

Do you have an opinion on the topic that we're discussing?

[msj]

Well, history is my guide.

Soon, we will have higher taxes to pay for Trudeaus promises. Higher taxes always come in higher gas prices and higher taxes to the middle class. Trudeaus middle class that he makes promises to, are not what we consider middle class. He considers us upper class.

Well, he has promised to increase income taxes for those earning $200,000 or more in taxable income.

Which is about 1ish % of the adult population.

Meanwhile, he has promised to cut income taxes for anyone earning $44k or more. Which does include a cut for those earning $200k+ it's just that the increase in taxes make it so that if one is making ~ $220k + then that person will be paying more.

So how you think that 1% of the population constitutes the middle class is beyond me.

I would peg the range at something like $75,000 to $175,000 per household and this range will do just fine from those tax cuts.

[msj]

Do you have an opinion on the topic that we're discussing?

Sure, I agree with what small has said above. "Trolling" or not he is bang on.

[msj]

Our 4-6 year forecast....

The Bank of Canada lending rates will double as they try to recoup their losses from those who renege on small debt, and others who stop buying into the real estate market.

Not sure who the "our" is here.

But they/you really don't understand how interest rates work based on the above statement.

Also, I would not be surprised if the BoC rate is double what it is now in 4 years.

Given that the overnight lending rate is 0.5% I would not be surprised if it is 1% in 4 years time.

In fact, this would be good as it would mean our economy is doing well so they raised interest rates to cool it.

Which is likely to happen thanks to the resurgent US economy.

Of course, watch out for the usual crappy Q4 GDP reports to come out of the US in the late winter ....

[Smallc]

If you believe what Trudeau says, then you know what I posted is factual.

BTW - You keep using the word partisan, so what? That means nothing to me. You're partisan too, we all are. It is a political site after all.

Partisan is fine - the unnecessary tone in the last month is disheartening.

[Hal 9000]

Well, he has promised to increase income taxes for those earning $200,000 or more in taxable income.

Which is about 1ish % of the adult population.

Meanwhile, he has promised to cut income taxes for anyone earning $44k or more. Which does include a cut for those earning $200k+ it's just that the increase in taxes make it so that if one is making ~ $220k + then that person will be paying more.

So how you think that 1% of the population constitutes the middle class is beyond me.

I would peg the range at something like $75,000 to $175,000 per household and this range will do just fine from those tax cuts.

First off, wherever you think the income line will be drawn is irrelevant - fact is; taxes will go up. And, as I just mentioned, fuel will go up. It's every left wing politicians plan to save you $100 bucks on income tax, but then bend you over for 1000$ in gasoline charges - it's so transparent that i'm really surprised more of you don't clue in.

Cost of oil and production has dropped, dollar has dropped somewhat - but gas prices climb $.10-15 per litre and you really don't see why? Oh yeah, blame big oil!

[Hal 9000]

Not sure who the "our" is here.

But they/you really don't understand how interest rates work based on the above statement.

Also, I would not be surprised if the BoC rate is double what it is now in 4 years.

Given that the overnight lending rate is 0.5% I would not be surprised if it is 1% in 4 years time.

In fact, this would be good as it would mean our economy is doing well so they raised interest rates to cool it.

Which is likely to happen thanks to the resurgent US economy.

Of course, watch out for the usual crappy Q4 GDP reports to come out of the US in the late winter ....

I actually shouldn't have said BofC rate, what I meant was the average mtg. lending rate which is usually about 3% above. My bad!

[msj]

I understand how gas prices work. And. the prices aren't always controlled by outside interests. Prices have gone up in US due to Obama's policies and it will go up here to pay for Trudeau's promises. Gas is easy to tax, just like smokes and alcohol, people will bitch and then pay it anyway - no biggie. Gas prices are all about where you like and what your political leaders want to tax it at. I say we'll hit 2.00 litre and I believe that based on prices that the Euros are paying.

People freak out about 1% increase or decrease in GST or 500$ income tax deduction for whatever, but a 12-15% increase in gas is a small blurb in the news - it's so comical that it's embarrassing.

Sure, I expect gas taxes to go up.

But they haven't yet and Trudeau has had little to nothing to do with the price of gas in the past several weeks contra your claim.

Hopefully Trudeau will do what the BC Liberals have done: bring in a carbon tax while offsetting those revenues with income tax cuts.

It's been quite popular here in BC. We even returned the BCL's to power albeit with a different leader ( but Gordon Campbell was getting long in the tooth and was very unpopular thanks to the HST).

[msj]

I actually shouldn't have said BofC rate, what I meant was the average mtg. lending rate which is usually about 3% above. My bad!

Yes your bad especially since mortgage rates are really set in the bond markets for which the BoC only has a fleeting influence on.

You really do not know your economics.

[msj]

Cost of oil and production has dropped, dollar has dropped somewhat - but gas prices climb $.10-15 per litre and you really don't see why? Oh yeah, blame big oil!

I'm not blaming anyone. The markets go up and down everyday.

Why are you blaming Trudeau for the spike around Nov 4 and 5 but then give him no credit for the average price dropping below those levels since then?

Take a look at the 1 month chart in Cdn cents per litre: http://www.gasbuddy.com/Charts (you will have to do it manually as it seems to reset to a US chart).

I know why: partisan political googles are on.

Edited November 18, 2015 by msj

[Hal 9000]

Yes your bad especially since mortgage rates are really set in the bond markets for which the BoC only has a fleeting influence on.

You really do not know your economics.

And has nothing to do with the central bank? Really?

[msj]

And has nothing to do with the central bank? Really?

Yes, really.

Most mortgages are based on fixed rates (set by the bond markets) and the overnight rate has nothing to do with those ( well maybe a tiny influence).

[Hal 9000]

I'm not blaming anyone. The markets go up and down everyday.

Why are you blaming Trudeau for the spike around Nov 4 and 5 but then give him no credit for the average price dropping below those levels since then?

Take a look at the 1 month chart in Cdn cents per litre: http://www.gasbuddy.com/Charts (you will have to do it manually as it seems to reset to a US chart).

I know why: partisan political googles are on.

OK, nothing will get settled tonight. I've given my predictions, but haven't seen yours. You seem to know that taxes will go up, you seem to know that gas prices will go up - so, i guess we agree on something.

As far as the gas and taxes - I guess we'll see. But, i'm willing to bet that I'm bang on, how about you?

[msj]

Forecasting is a waste of time so nothing from me on this.

[msj]

If you pay attention to the bond markets you will see mortgage rate are constantly fluctuating up and down all the time. Even when there has been no change to the overnight rate.

People don't notice because they don't pay attention to the bond market.

They only notice the rates during that brief window when they refinance their mortgage and then it's back to ignoring the fluctuations again.

[Hal 9000]

Forecasting is a waste of time so nothing from me on this.

Right, because you, like some of the others on here OGFT and Smallc, choose to react and agitate other posts rather than actually start a dialogue. No biggie! Some people get in the ring, some stand at the side and shout inane comments.

[Smallc]

Right, because you, like some of the others on here OGFT and Smallc, choose to react and agitate other posts rather than actually start a dialogue. No biggie! Some people get in the ring, some stand at the side and shout inane comments.

I actually made a prediction. Canada will be about the same as now. Some tax changes and legal weed isn't going to be a revolution...although the commute might be getting faster by then.

[Hal 9000]

I actually made a prediction. Canada will be about the same as now. Some tax changes and legal weed isn't going to be a revolution...although the commute might be getting faster by then.

The commute will be slower if everyone is smoking weed .

[msj]

Right, because you, like some of the others on here OGFT and Smallc, choose to react and agitate other posts rather than actually start a dialogue. No biggie! Some people get in the ring, some stand at the side and shout inane comments.

Criticism of statements I disagree with is not inane nor agitation.

My primary point here has been the hypocrisy of you blaming Trudeau for an increase in gas prices on a certain date (Nov 4/5) while happily ignoring the fact that prices have declined below those levels since then.

That is a kind of cognitive dissonance that can only be explained due to partisan politics.

The facts are staring you plainly in the face on this but you ignore it because you think gas prices and taxes and mortgage rates are all going to go up.

Well, it wouldn't/shouldn't be a surprise if any of those go up given just plain mean reversion: mortgage rates are at historic lows and gas prices are at lowish levels thanks to oil prices being at lowish levels.

Of course income taxes are going up for anyone earning $200,000+ because Trudeau has promised that while income taxes are going down for anyone making $44k to $200k also because Trudeau has promised that.

So that's about the extent of my forecasting.

[Hal 9000]

Actually, the gas prices are exactly the same here as the day Trudeau took office, but I haven't fuelled today so...

I'm not blaming Trudeau for that so much as acknowledging that the prices did increase based on the election results, but anyway, from here on we will see his direct involvement in canadian fuel prices.

P.S - The trend for fuel prices is usually a big increase at certain times (holidays, summer etc) and then a small decrease. And Yes, I know that fuel was higher at certain points before Trudeau was elected.

I'll bet you anything we see $2.00liter gasoline within 1 year.

[msj]

Actually, the gas prices are exactly the same here as the day Trudeau took office, but I haven't fuelled today so...

I'm not blaming Trudeau for that so much as acknowledging that the prices did increase based on the election results, but anyway, from here on we will see his direct involvement in canadian fuel prices.

Markets are forward looking.

The price increase should have happened on October 20th after he was elected rather than on November 4th when he became our official PM.

[Hal 9000]

Criticism of statements I disagree with is not inane nor agitation.

My primary point here has been the hypocrisy of you blaming Trudeau for an increase in gas prices on a certain date (Nov 4/5) while happily ignoring the fact that prices have declined below those levels since then.

That is a kind of cognitive dissonance that can only be explained due to partisan politics.

The facts are staring you plainly in the face on this but you ignore it because you think gas prices and taxes and mortgage rates are all going to go up.

Well, it wouldn't/shouldn't be a surprise if any of those go up given just plain mean reversion: mortgage rates are at historic lows and gas prices are at lowish levels thanks to oil prices being at lowish levels.

Of course income taxes are going up for anyone earning $200,000+ because Trudeau has promised that while income taxes are going down for anyone making $44k to $200k also because Trudeau has promised that.

So that's about the extent of my forecasting.

Dude, it's a classic "bait and switch" tactic. It's not real! Do you honestly think Trudeau can tax the 1% enough to cover his 16Billion dollar promises? No chance....not even maybe!

If you're a welfare mom or refugee, sure life will be great, for the rest of us - no so much.

[msj]

I'll bet you anything we see $2.00liter gasoline within 1 year.

They could get that high with a carbon tax of, say, 25 cents per litre and oil prices at around $125 (Brent).

Yes, possible.

One thing Trudeau does control and the other he doesn't control.

[msj]

Dude, it's a classic "bait and switch" tactic. It's not real! Do you honestly think Trudeau can tax the 1% enough to cover his 16Billion dollar promises? No chance....not even maybe!

We will have to wait and see their budgets over the next few years.

We will also have to see how the economy performs: the US will hopefully be a tailwind even if it leads to the headwinds of higher interest rates which will effect Canada more so thanks to the debt binge going on for 15 years now.

Edited November 18, 2015 by msj