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Posted

I can't think of anything Mulcair has done that was wrong.

You think his stance on the niqab was politically right? I don't, and all national polls show conclusively the NDP decline began the day after his morally correct but politically naïve pronouncement on the niqab.

I'm amazed this obvious fact has escaped you.

When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one.

...... Lord Lytton

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Posted

You think his stance on the niqab was politically right? I don't, and all national polls show conclusively the NDP decline began the day after his morally correct but politically naïve pronouncement on the niqab.

I'm amazed this obvious fact has escaped you.

Trudeau took the exact same stance and it was the moment he began rising in the polls.

It's kind of the worst thing that any humans could be doing at this time in human history. Other than that, it's fine." Bill Nye on Alberta Oil Sands

Posted

Trudeau took the exact same stance and it was the moment he began rising in the polls.

The difference is that the NDP's base is in Quebec. And more than that, in the areas of Quebec that are not exactly known for being tolerant of other religions and cultures.

I think that what happened is that Trudeau stayed in the game by exceeding the low expectations that many people had. Then when the niqab debate happened, Mulcair's supporters in Quebec abandoned him for the Bloc or the CPC. And when that happened, the faction of the centre left that could go either NDP or Liberal started going Liberal. I'm not sure either of those are finished yet.

It really bothers me that this insidious and despicable tactic of the Conservatives seems to be working.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

Trudeau took the exact same stance and it was the moment he began rising in the polls.

Trudeau 's Quebec strength is English enclaves in Montreal. Mulcair's strength was among French Canadians that as a group were far more opposed to the wearing of the niqab than, for instance, English Quebecers.

The NDP was uniquely vulnerable in Quebec on this issue and the NDP brain-trust missed it - or gambled it's overwhelming lead in the province could absorb a 'principled hit'.

When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one.

...... Lord Lytton

Posted

his morally correct but politically naïve pronouncement on the niqab.

Would you prefer he had been politically smart and morally bankrupt?

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

Would you prefer he had been politically smart and morally bankrupt?

Do you accept the NDP's chances to form gov't are now completely blown due in large part to Mulcair's niqab stance?

Surely, if there ever was a trade off for the greater good this was it. From front runner to ignoble defeat - at least Mulcair will have his principles intact.

When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one.

...... Lord Lytton

Posted

Trudeau took the exact same stance and it was the moment he began rising in the polls.

There's a rather odd phenomena in electoral politics that can best be described as "winners win". It sounds like a ludicrous truism, but the logic behind it is that once the electorate starts to consider a party a winner, it creates its own momentum. When it happens, it's like a snowball, and what looked like a hard slog or even defeat at the beginning of a campaign can suddenly be transformed into victory.

Unfortunately, it's also true that "losers lose". Once the electorate decides a party is done, there's almost nothing right they can do. It doesn't matter at that point how much they pander, or how good they may seem in every possible way, it's sort of like how a good TV series will get canceled because nobody tuned in, and meanwhile American Idol as seventeen bazillion viewers.

We can debate how much of his father's acumen Justin Trudeau has inherited from his father, but he's inherited the charisma. Justin may even be better in some respects, because PET's charisma always had an edge, and he couldn't resist showing off, whereas his son seems a lot less arrogant.

What I find interesting about this whole scenario playing out is how it has turned normal electoral maneuvering on its head. Usually, an election is all about judging the incumbent. Elections are almost always about the government that's already in power, and whether they are deemed worthy to be given another term, or sent packing. The way the dynamic has played out this time is that people are talking more about the NDP's decline and the Liberals' rising fortunes, than about the Conservatives. In some strange way, the Tories have almost become the story on the second page, rather than the front page exclusive.

I think that's actually good for the Tories. For the first half of this campaign, they were acting as any incumbent government, particularly one in power so long, does. They were on the defensive, and at moments it almost looked as if they were on the ropes. With everyone fascinated by how the NDP could have gone from the mid-30s to the low-20s within the space of a month has absolutely captivated everyone; friend and foe alike.

But I expect, as the electorate accepts the NDP are a spent force, we'll spend the last days of this election in a more traditional street fight between the Grits and Tories. I feel a little bad for Mulcair, though I think he's run a good campaign, but he's not going to be taking his seat next to Layton in the NDP Hall of Fame, but rather joining Broadbent, McLaughlin and McDonough in the frustrated NDP camp.

Posted

Mulcair should have handled the TPP issue by saying that a caretake government has no authority to sign such an agreement for Canada and that the NDP will review the details of the agreement in full before deciding whether or not to support it.

Agree with this.

Posted

Do you accept the NDP's chances to form gov't are now completely blown due in large part to Mulcair's niqab stance?

Yes.

Do you accept that it was the right thing to do? And that good leaders do the right thing even if it's unpopular?

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

Do you accept the NDP's chances to form gov't are now completely blown due in large part to Mulcair's niqab stance?

Surely, if there ever was a trade off for the greater good this was it. From front runner to ignoble defeat - at least Mulcair will have his principles intact.

I don't think it has everything to do with Niqabs, though I think that plays a part. TPP plays into it, and also the fact that I think somehow the great mob of ABH types suddenly decided the Liberals had the better chance of beating the Tories.

Frankly, even if niqabs and TPP hadn't been issues, I have this funny feeling the NDP would still be in trouble. I think their base of support in Quebec was always incredible shaky.

Posted (edited)

I have a feeling the NDP soon will. Principled stands are all well and good, but if it means you're third party, it doesn't do you a lot of good.

And how far do you go? A couple of women have already been assaulted as a result of Harper's pathetic pandering to Islamophobes. What's it worth to you to get more seats?

The problem here isn't Mulcair, it's Harper and the Islamophobes.

ETA: This is why we need a new voting system. Third parties could stick to their principles without getting destroyed at the polls.

Edited by ReeferMadness

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

You think his stance on the niqab was politically right? I don't, and all national polls show conclusively the NDP decline began the day after his morally correct but politically naïve pronouncement on the niqab.

No freaking way would it have been the right thing to do for him to agree with the Tories and BQ on this. It might have played to a portion of the Quebec electorate but it would have completely destroyed the party otherwise. Most of the membership, outside a Quebec enclave, would have been deadly opposed. They would have lost my vote for a few elections if they did this, quite possibly. Moreover, he would have been going back on the NDP's own previous position on this and this sort of flip-flopping would not have played well. If they are not going to stand for principles like this, what good is it to have an NDP? If anything, I think Mulcair's error on this issue is that he has been too cagey, always prefacing his comments by talking about how uncomfortable the niqab makes him personally before explaining why it's not the issue to focus on. Trudeau's position has actually been more principled and inspiring; those are not words I usually use for Justin Trudeau.

Posted

Frankly, even if niqabs and TPP hadn't been issues, I have this funny feeling the NDP would still be in trouble. I think their base of support in Quebec was always incredible shaky.

Yeah, if the niqab issue is enough to lose their Quebec base, one has to wonder how strong that base was and how informed they were about the NDP in the first place. I'm not sure that's the sole reason, though. I didn't find the NDP campaign that inspiring until fairly recently and the Libs were campaigning well.

I think I actually feel a little resentful because Mulcair was waging such a good fight in the House for the last four years while the Liberals did so little. All of a sudden, they've emerged as a great progressive hope out of nowhere.

Posted

And how far do you go? A couple of women have already been assaulted as a result of Harper's pathetic pandering to Islamophobes. What's it worth to you to get more seats?

The problem here isn't Mulcair, it's Harper and the Islamophobes.

ETA: This is why we need a new voting system. Third parties could stick to their principles without getting destroyed at the polls.

I'm not saying it doesn't suck, and that it's all deeply wrong and deeply unfair, but it appears the voters are either buying into the Tories' "freaky Muslim ladies" line or giving Trudeau a free pass.

And a new voting system still wouldn't help a party that's skimming the low to mid-20s in popular support.

Posted

Possibly, the simplest explanation for this could be that NDP support was never that deep to begin with and the 2011 election was a fluke, owing to the weakness in both the LPC and BQ.

That's the explanation I go with. Quebec voters knew the Bloc was a dead end; the toppling of the Liberal-NDP coalition with Bloc support demonstrated to them that they could never expect to have any great say in Parliament by electing the Bloc. At the same time, Dion's campaign demonstrated just how not ready the Liberals were for prime time, and of course the Tories had managed to offend just about everyone in the province. So that left the NDP, who were rewarded because they hadn't angered anybody. They were the default federalist party in 2011, but not anymore.

Posted

Possibly, the simplest explanation for this could be that NDP support was never that deep to begin with and the 2011 election was a fluke, owing to the weakness in both the LPC and BQ.

Quebec voters have a reputation of being fickle. The NDP would be better off returning to their social democratic roots. It would be better for them and better for the country. The party was fooling itself to think it could remain what it was and still govern the country.

Social democrats should focus on changing the country, not become another centrist party.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

Dion's campaign demonstrated just how not ready the Liberals were for prime time,

Yeah. They picked a leader with intelligence and integrity, but not huge amounts of political savvy or charisma. I'm sure that's a lesson that won't be lost on anyone.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

Posted

Yeah. They picked a leader with intelligence and integrity, but not huge amounts of political savvy or charisma. I'm sure that's a lesson that won't be lost on anyone.

I'm actually a huge admirer of Dion, and frankly I think the success of federalist parties in Quebec of late owes more to him than to Harper. He's a bright man and a considerable legal scholar, but he was not a leader.

Posted

Liberal support picked up in Quebec at the same time at NDP dropped and yet both of them had the same niqab stance. There's gotta be more to it than that.

It's kind of the worst thing that any humans could be doing at this time in human history. Other than that, it's fine." Bill Nye on Alberta Oil Sands

Posted (edited)

I never saw what was supposed to be terrible about Dion's leadership tbh, and never thought he was less charismatic than Harper, although his English is heavily accented. I thought he was paying the price for the sponsorship scandal.

Edited by Evening Star
Posted

Liberal support picked up in Quebec at the same time at NDP dropped and yet both of them had the same niqab stance. There's gotta be more to it than that.

There is. The NDP's niqab stance was on page 1. The Liberals was on page 2. Everybody was more interested in the "How is the Orange Crush going to survive niqabs?"

And now Trudeau has seized the issue and made it his own, after the grenade went off in Mulcair's hands.

Posted

I never saw what was supposed to be terrible about Dion's leadership tbh, and never thought he was less charismatic than Harper, although his English is not good. I thought he was paying the price for the sponsorship scandal.

He was the choice of a deeply divided party. He had very little political capital within his own ranks, let alone with the voters. Unfortunately for the Liberals, Ignatieff proved just as bad, and in some critical ways, much worse.

Posted

I thought Dion made a very good point here about an awkward issue when it comes to NDP policy: how to reconcile their support for universal social programmes with their embrace of 'asymmetrical federalism' in the last 10 years.

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