NDP Gains the Most in Latest Poll (Nov 10/04)

[maplesyrup]

Party/Election/Nov 10/04

Libs: 36.7%/37.2%/up 0.5%

Cons: 29.6%/26.8%/down 2.8%

NDP: 15.7%/17.4%/up 1.7%

Bloc: 12.4%/10.4%/down 2%

Greens: 4.3%/4.3%/no change

[maplesyrup]

Canada

Libs: 37

Cons: 27

NDP: 17

Bloc: 10

Grn: 4

BC

Libs: 27

Cons: 38

NDP: 24

Bloc:

Grn: 4

AB

Libs: 25

Cons: 54

NDP: 13

Bloc:

Grn: 4

Prairies

Libs: 38

Cons: 24

NDP: 24

Bloc:

Grn: 9

Ontario

Libs: 48

Cons: 26

NDP: 19

Bloc:

Grn: 4

Quebec

Libs: 27

Cons: 10

NDP: 13

Bloc: 44

Grn: 3

Atlantic

Libs: 47

Cons: 33

NDP: 14

Bloc:

Grn: 5

[Cartman]

The Atlantic percentages seem strange to me. I would like to know why the Green Party is doing slightly better there than in BC and why the Libs are so strong.

[maplesyrup]

Overall, since the election,

The NDP has gained:

4.5% on the Conservatives

3.7% on the Bloc

and

2.2% on the Liberals.

Not too shabby a performance now, impacted by having our leader Jack layton in the House of Commons!

[maplesyrup]

The Atlantic Region has usually backed the Liberals, or governing party, being dependent on equalization payments. The NDP had a bit of strength there when the NDP leader was from Halifax.

[August1991]

Maple Syrup, this recent poll is vitually identical to the election result, given the margin of error.

As to Atlantic Canada, the sample size there is so small that I'm not surprised the result might seem "strange".

But I have a question. How do the BC poll results translate for the coming provincial election?

BC

Libs: 27

Cons: 38

NDP: 24

Bloc:

Grn: 4

How do Federal Liberals in BC vote provincially?

[maplesyrup]

The NDP has gone from 4.6% support in the last federal election to 13% support now in Quebec.

I think having a leader that was born in Quebec and Layton's position on the Clarity Act has made some inroads.

I think Layton is on the right track, but I wonder what the NDP has to do now to increase that support even more in Quebec, so that it will materialize into seats in the next federal election.

[Slavik44]

Maple Syrup, this recent poll is vitually identical to the election result, given the margin of error.

As to Atlantic Canada, the sample size there is so small that I'm not surprised the result might seem "strange".

But I have a question. How do the BC poll results translate for the coming provincial election?

BC

Libs: 27

Cons: 38

NDP: 24

Bloc:

Grn: 4

How do Federal Liberals in BC vote provincially?

My guess would be that under normal circumstances, the NDP and Liberals may get a split. However with the provincial liberals bouncing around 40% I would wager they are being supported by one group.

[maplesyrup]

Make Parliament work: Poll

Canadians would most likely blame the Conservatives if the minority government in Ottawa collapses, according to a new poll out today.

Interestn' analysis. And that is why both Harper and Martin are all bluster when they talk about bringing down the government.

[Cartman]

Maple Syrup, this recent poll is vitually identical to the election result, given the margin of error.

Its possible, but you could easily reduce the SE by decreasing your sig. level so the statistic probably holds.

[maplesyrup]

This is one of the reasons the NDP is slowly gaining support in federal politics:

NDP may force House vote on controversial missile defence: NDP's Blaikie

NDP Deputy Leader Bill Blaikie says his party could introduce a votable motion in the House of Commons before or after the Christmas break to ensure the country's elected MPs can have their input before the Paul Martin government signs an agreement with the U.S. on the controversial national missile defence (NMD) shield.

"It's certainly an option," said Bill Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona, Man.), who is also his party's defence critic, in an interview with The Hill Times in reacting to Defence Minister Bill Graham's (Toronto Centre, Ont.) recent statement that a vote in the House on the NMD should take place after Canada has signed an agreement with the U.S.

"Well, the point would be to have people [MPs] express their feelings, their position on this before there was an actual agreement negotiated. The other point is that we want to know who is in favour of it, in principle, and who isn't because at the moment the Conservatives are trying to have it both ways," he said.

Mr. Blaikie, a 25-year-veteran of the Commons, declined to say when the NDP would introduce a motion in the House if it decides to do so. He also declined to comment on the wording of the motion.

All opposition parties are given a certain number of supply days during which they may propose motions for debate -- some of which can be made votable -- on any matter falling within the jurisdiction of the federal government.

What is the point of having a vote after the deal has been agreed to? Democracy my ass. When the NDP go ahead with this vote, you will see the other parties start to sweat about it. Chances are it won't get approval because party politics controls the MPs, but it should prove enlightening nevertheless. /67

[Bakunin]

im sorry maple but first there are only 2 poll that can be acurate in quebec, the leger marketing poll and "crop lapresse" poll because they learned with time how poll had to be made in quebec to be accurate.

often they where showing the bloc at 55% while it never passed the 45-50%. and they where showing the liberal with a lot less % than they should. it must be the way they share the undecided voters (undecided tend to be liberal that don't want to say it) and how they choose the voters.

and in reality it look is more like that:

Quebec

Libs: 27 --> 33-35%

Cons: 10 --> 7-12%

NDP: 13 -->5-10%

Bloc: 44 -->35-45%

Grn: 3 -->0-1%

and the voting day, ndp and conservative goes even more down.

[Big Blue Machine]

They don't have a chance in quebec so it's probably a go thing that the support goes to the BLoc.

[Newfie Canadian]

The Atlantic Region has usually backed the Liberals, or governing party, being dependent on equalization payments.

Speaking as an Atlantic Canadian, eqaulization has no direct bearing on how I vote.

First, I look at the people running. Keep in mind that the biggest urban centers in the Atlantic region would be considered medium sized suburbs to places like Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto or Montréal, so it's easy to know more about the people running in your area. The biggest center in my district has about 5000-6000, and my district of Avalon covers the entire Avalon Peninsula except St. John's and it's immediate area.

Then I look at the party. Atlantic Canadians have had a hard time forgetting the attitudes and remarks of Harper in 2002 when he said that Atlantic Canadians suffered from a "defeatist attitude". In NL, the CPC carries the baggage of the federal PC party, which presided over the loss of the railway and the closure of the cod fishery. The CPC has done very little to overcome these gaffes/deficiencies/attitudes.

I've explained in other posts the perception of the NDP.

[Guest eureka]

I hardly think that equalization payments have much to do with how anyone votes. They have nothing to do with what party is in office since they are a constitutional right of every province.

It seems that the only province that does not complain is the only province that has always been a contributor - Ontario. I wonder whether any province has any justification for complaint since all but Ontario have been recipients of aid from this source.

Complaints about equalizarion have no basis and have never been more than political plays by one fortunate, for the moment provincial political leader and some with the same base who have transferred their selfishness to the federal scene.