Newfoundland and Labrador Election November 2015

[Newfoundlander]

This Monday will likely get the ball rolling for the upcoming election. The Electoral Boundaries Commission will release its final report Monday morning that will see 8 seats removed from the House of Assembly. That afternoon the government will table legislation to reduce the number of seats and delay the election till the end of November so that it doesn't occur at the same time as the federal election. With the electoral boundaries in place the parties will likely spend the summer nominating candidates.

As well, Corporate Research Associates will be releasing a poll Monday morning. It will be the first poll since the provincial budget and the first with Earle McCurdy as leader of the NDP.

Yesterday it was announced that the PC Party had hired Darell Fowlie as a campaign strategist. Fowlie was a Deputy Minister in David Alwards office when he was Premier of New Brunswick.

Today the Liberals announced that a new communications person has been hired in the Official Opposition Office. As well they have hired an ad agency for their campaign that has previously worked on campaigns for the PC Party.

[Michael Hardner]

Great - do you have a link with any predictions or maybe predictions for yourself ?

Who do you like in this race ?

[Newfoundlander]

The Liberals have been riding high in the polls for a good while now, after coming third in the popular vote in 2011. They've also won a slew of by-elections, winning seats formally held by the PCs.

The Liberals have been having a rough year but I don't know if it'll show in the polls, due to anger with the PCs and no alternative in the NDP. The Liberals had brought up the idea of cutting the number of seats and when Premier Paul Davis went through with it the Liberals were caught off guard. There were numerous flip flops on Dwight Ball's part and disagreements within the caucus over the new electoral map. They will also have to redo 20-odd nominations and incumbents will be forced to face off against each other. The party has also faced criticism, similar to Trudeau, regarding not having much in the way of policy. A "policy announcement" recently that they had talked about for weeks turned out to be a plan to develop some economic policies by this September. The public seem to be getting sick of this. Last week they announced they had paid off the party's debt, which they've had since 2003, but it turned out afterwards that three banks waived their interest and penalties. They paid back $500,000 on a debt that had reached almost $900,000. The party did not immediately give details on how much they paid back and whether they had debt written off. It got messy for them and hasn't gone over well with people. The PCs did get a similar deal in the early 2000s.

I will provide some more info on the other parties in a little while. But I don't like the Liberals.

[Newfoundlander]

While the Liberals haven't been having a great six months, the NDP haven't had a great couple of years and the PCs have had a tough four years.

After placing second in the popular vote in 2011 - third in seats - the NDP had continued to see their support rise and by 2013 they had overtaken the PCs for first place. (Up until then the PCs had continuously led in opinion polls since probably 2001 or 2002) However, by the end of 2013 the NDP saw their support collapse after a caucus revolt against leader Lorraine Michael led to two MHAs - and many supporters - leave the party. Michael survived a leadership review in May 2014, but that was largely because so many people had left the party. The NDP performed poorly in four by-elections after the leadership review and Lorraine evenrually called it quits this January. Earle McCurdy was elected leader of the party in March. McCurdy was the president of the Fisheries Union from just after the cod moratorium in 1992 until the end of 2014. He was a household name in the province but he's a polarizing figure among the public and even his union. He's a gifted politician but he has taken over a party that trails badly in the polls and has little to no on the ground organization. We haven't heard a whole lot from McCurdy since he won the leadership, besides responses to issues like the budget and whatnot. He's likely focused more on organizing the party for this fall. Had we heard more from him over the last number of months I think the party could have benefitted at the expense of the other two parties, though that may still happen in Monday's poll.

I'll give some information on the PCs probably tomorrow.

[Michael Hardner]

A lot of information- what are the issues ?

[Newfoundlander]

A lot of information- what are the issues ?

I guess the collapse of oil prices is kind of the big issue in a sense of the problems it's causing. The province's deficit is now pegged at $1.1 billion for this year and the government is looking at raising income taxes and the HST by two points to rein in the deficit. They've also announced they will not move forward with some capital projects like a new mental health hospital or a new prison. There's also questions around government spending and money not being saved etc. etc.

Like most provinces health care and the economy are big issues, but the collapse of oil prices has changed the conversation around those issues.

[Topaz]

Isn't there an issue between Nfld and the Feds over fishing and the EU trade agreement???

[Michael Hardner]

...but the collapse of oil prices has changed the conversation around those issues.

Central Canada should note that Alberta isn't the only "oil" province. Thanks.

[Newfoundlander]

Isn't there an issue between Nfld and the Feds over fishing and the EU trade agreement???

Yeah, that never really gained much traction.

[Newfoundlander]

The new CRA poll out this morning saw the NDP surge in support. They're now at 22% compared to the PCs at 27% and the Liberals at 50%. In the last poll which was conducted throughout February the NDP had been at 13% while the PCs were at 31% and the Liberals at 56%.

Dissatisfaction with the government also increased. 47% approve of the government while 46% disapprove of their performance. 56% approved of the government in the last poll. It's not surprising after the budget to see dissatisfaction up and support for the PCs down. However, the Liberals might be a bit worried that they couldn't take advantage of the PCs drop.

Here's the poll. http://cra.ca/support-grows-for-nl-ndp/

The Premier also announced that the provincial election will occur on November 30, 2015. The electoral boundaries report was submitted to government this morning and was tabled in the house this afternoon. There's still no copy posted online yet.

[Michael Hardner]

The NDP are surging everywhere, it seems.

[Newfoundlander]

Here's the final report of the electoral boundaries commission. http://www.nledbc.ca/reports

There were no substantial changes from the preliminary report that was released in April. The legislation surrounding removing 8 district is now being debated in the House of Assembly. The government is also changing the fixed date election legislation to delay the election by about a month so it doesn't conflict with the federal election. As well they're also changing the rules around calling by-elections. In NL the government must call by-election within 3 months of the seat becoming vacant. That will now change to 6 months in an election year. Former cabinet minister Kevin O'Brien has announced he's running federally so under the current legislation it was possible that his resignation could have led to a by-election before the provincial election.

[Newfoundlander]

The series finale of our local CBC political show featured a leaders debate. I doubt anyone here is interested in watching the full thing but it was pretty good. In the related articles section of the page there are some clips from the debate.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/on-point-hosts-the-first-leaders-debate-for-2015-election-1.3111714

[Newfoundlander]

Due to the reduction in the number of seats in the House of Assembly two Liberal MHAs have announced this past weekend that they will be challenging one another for their party's nomination in the district of St. George's - Grand Lake. Stelman Flynn and Scott Reid were both elected in by-elections only last year. This nomination battle is taking place on the west coast but two other Liberal MHAs are suppose to square off against each other in a district on the Avalon Peninsula. Steve Crocker - who was also elected last year - and Sam Slade - who was elected in a 2013 by-election - announced after the preliminary report that they would both seek their party's nomination in Trinity Bay de Verde (which is the current name of Crocker's district but the boundaries are changed).

As well, Liberal MHA Jim Bennett's seat was largely merged with his leader's seat in the redistribution. While he currently represents a district on the northern peninsula he has announced he's going to run for the Liberal nomination in Lewisporte-Twillingate, which is nowhere near his current district. Part of the district is represented by the Speaker of the House of Assembly - who isn't running for re-election - and part is represented by Natural Resources minister Derrick Dalley, who is expected to run there.

The PC caucus fared much better than the Liberal caucus with the redistribution, despite being larger. After the initial report, Child, Youth and Family Services minister Sandy Collins announced that he would switch to the neighbouring district of Gander - which is currently held by a former minister who's running federally - due to his seat being merged with the Finance minister Ross Wiseman's district. Wiseman has been around since 2001 so I wouldn't be surprised to see him decide not to seek re-election.

As well tomorrow NDP leader Earle McCurdy will announce where's he is going to run. He has done polling in the district of St. John's West, a seat the NDP nearly won in 2011. The seat is currently held by PC cabinet minister Dan Crummell - first elected in 2011 - and the Liberal candidate had been former MP Siobhan Coady. Coady will have to secure the nomination again now that the districts have been changed, though St. John's West didn't change much.

Former NDP leader Lorraine Michael and MHA George Murphy still haven't announced where they will run. Part of Michael's district was merged with Murphy's district. They're suppose to announce where they are running this week.

[Newfoundlander]

Lorraine Micahel announced last week that she's running in St. John's East Quidi Vidi.

George Murphy announced he's not running for re-election after just one term.

[Newfoundlander]

Incumbent MHA Rex Hillier lost the Liberal nomination in Conception Bay South (CBS) tonight. Hillier was narrowly elected in a by-election last October in a seat that was considered a PC stronghold. Steve Porter - who challenged Hillier a year ago for the nomination - was the successful candidate. If Hillier wants to make a bid in another seat the only logical option for him is to challenged Premier Paul Davis, who represents the neighbouring district. Hillier actually succeeded Davis as a town councillor in CBS when Davis entered provincial politics.

[Michael Hardner]

Detailed analysis - thank you.

[Newfoundlander]

A poll out today is devastating for the PC Party. The party has now fallen back to third place - in 2013 they were in third for part of the year - with the NDP having surged. Abacus released a poll this morning showing that the NDP has gone from 9% in March to 25%. The PCs have fallen from 32% to 21% while Liberals went from 57% to 53%.

Even worse for the party are the regional numbers. Back in March there was a big discrepancy in support for the PCs throughout the province. Their numbers were pitiful in Labrador and the west but improved big time in the central and eastern areas of Newfoundland. However, now their numbers are low everywhere. With these sort of numbers winning seats will be a big struggle for them.

http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/VOCM_ProvincialBallot_June20151.pdf

[Newfoundlander]

Former Minister Kevin O'Brien resigned his seat today to run federally. O'Brien left cabinet earlier in the year after spending about ten years in various posts. At the time of the cabinet shuffle he announced he was planning to run federally.

[Newfoundlander]

If things had not been going bad enough for the PC Party, today they fired their recently hired campaign strategist Darell Fowlie. Fowlie was a deputy minister in the office of former New Brunswick Premier David Alward and is tied to a scandal in that province.

[Michael Hardner]

Here's a link to the story:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/darell-fowlie-fired-by-n-l-pcs-over-larry-s-gulch-scandal-1.3143252

[Newfoundlander]

I should have posted the link. Thanks.

The PCs were supposedly planning to announcing their election team next week. So that will likely be delayed a while.

Edited July 9, 2015 by Newfoundlander

[Newfoundlander]

When Paul Davis became premier last year he sparked outrage after he appointed Judy Manning - a virtually unknown St. John's - as Minister of Justice and Public Safety as well as Attorney General. Despite numerous by-elections opportunities Manning refused to run in either of them and was instead opting to run in her home district of Placentia St. Mary's when the seat became available. (Long story but Felix Collins - who was then and is now again the Attorney General - had already said he would not run again in that district. It is believed he had indicated he'd resign his seat for Manning but never did) Her whole not running was a big issue and other stuff that probably wasn't a big deal became a controversy just because she was the un-elected minister. Back in March she was removed from cabinet when Davis decided to reduce the number of ministers. Manning was supposedly quite upset over the whole thing.

Anyway, today the PCs opened nominations in Placentia St. Mary's and sources say that Manning will be seeking the party's nomination. She has not done interviews since leaving cabinet and it was unclear whether she would still run. She's also expected to face a challenge for the nomination.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/judy-manning-seeking-pc-nomination-in-placentia-st-mary-s-sources-say-1.3157462

[Newfoundlander]

Judy Manning secured the PC nomination last night in Placentia St. Mary's. About 1000 people voted and she received about 60% of the vote. The Liberals and NDP do not currently have candidates in place, though at least 3 people have come forward for the Liberals.

[Newfoundlander]

Liberal MHA Jim Bennett - who ran for the leadership in 2013 and also served as leader for three months in 2006 before being forced to resign - lost the party nomination in the district of Lewisporte Twillingate this week. Bennett was elected in 2011 in St. Barbe, the district was merged with Liberal leader Dwight Ball's seat and Liberal MHA Chris Mitchelmore's seat earlier the year. Lewisporte Twillingate was nowhere near the district he now holds.

I'd imagine the party is delighted to see him gone. He has made numerous idiotic comments over the years and has been nothing but a headache for the party.