Big Guy Posted January 28, 2015 Author Report Posted January 28, 2015 I am surprised and disappointed that with the technology available today that weather forecasting has not appeared to have advanced to a point where we can predict with certainty, how the atmosphere will react. We can send and drop a probe on Mars and the Moon is easy access. With enough sensors, historical empirical data, longitudinal data and an understanding of physics and chemistry, I would have assumed that by now we would have developed computer programs which would give us accurate and timely results. Weather and climate have such an important impact on economics that I would assume that the anticipation and prediction of changes would be a priority. I could continue but the arthritis in my hands is acting up - BTW - that means rain is coming. Quote Note - For those expecting a response from Big Guy: I generally do not read or respond to posts longer then 300 words nor to parsed comments.
Bryan Posted January 28, 2015 Report Posted January 28, 2015 All one need do is look at Boston today. Expected top have two ft of snow. Even two feet is not that bad. People who don't get a lot of snow grossly over-react when it happens. Quote
On Guard for Thee Posted January 28, 2015 Report Posted January 28, 2015 I'll refer you to your earlier post, damned if they do AND don't. Quote
On Guard for Thee Posted January 28, 2015 Report Posted January 28, 2015 I'll refer you to your earlier post, damned if they do AND don't. Exactly correct. If they didn't shut down flights and the storm had been 30 miles west, there would have been people stuck all over the place in places they weren't scheduled to go, and the airlines would have been on the hook for hotel rooms up the ying yang. Funny people don't seem to understand that. Is it like the first time it has happenned? Quote
jbg Posted January 28, 2015 Report Posted January 28, 2015 Apparently NYC got off pretty easy vis a vis the forecast. Seems the storm veered a bit. The Canadian east coast looks to be taking the brunt of it now.A forecast for 24" - 36" is unbelievably extreme and should not have been made. We've had two storms over 24" and one of those is highly dubious. The first, on 12/26-27/1947 was legit. New York City got 26.4" and the suburbs 40 km to the north got 36" or so. The difference is explained by a small admixture of sleet/ice pellets that is common. The second one, in February 2006 supposedly left 26.9". No doubt it was an intense storm but the surrounding stations came in with 18"-20". I doubt that record. For safety's sake they should have forecast 12" to 18". That would advise all that a dangerous storm was on the way. This was overhyped. Quote Free speech: "You can say what you want, but I don't have to lend you my megaphone." Always remember that when you are in the right you can afford to keep your temper, and when you are in the wrong you cannot afford to lose it. - J.J. Reynolds. Will the steps anyone is proposing to fight "climate change" reduce a single temperature, by a single degree, at a single location? The mantra of "world opinion" or the views of the "international community" betrays flabby and weak reasoning (link).
Wilber Posted January 28, 2015 Report Posted January 28, 2015 Airlines have more places to serve than the US north east and have to allocate resources accordingly. Like everyone else when it comes to weather, they make an educated guess and hope for the best. The least expensive jet airliner Boeing makes starts at just under $80M USD. They don't make any money sitting on the ground. Quote "Never trust a man who has not a single redeeming vice". WSC
On Guard for Thee Posted January 28, 2015 Report Posted January 28, 2015 A forecast for 24" - 36" is unbelievably extreme and should not have been made. We've had two storms over 24" and one of those is highly dubious. The first, on 12/26-27/1947 was legit. New York City got 26.4" and the suburbs 40 km to the north got 36" or so. The difference is explained by a small admixture of sleet/ice pellets that is common. The second one, in February 2006 supposedly left 26.9". No doubt it was an intense storm but the surrounding stations came in with 18"-20". I doubt that record. For safety's sake they should have forecast 12" to 18". That would advise all that a dangerous storm was on the way. This was overhyped. The storm got bumped offshore around NT and Boston. Do we know how much snow then fell into the Atlantic? Forecasters do a pretty good job but sometimes they miss. This was/is a huge storm and if warnings weren't given everybody would be really upset. Better safe than sorry as the old adage goes. Quote
WIP Posted January 28, 2015 Report Posted January 28, 2015 I'm not saying vigilance and planning isn't a good thing. But a shut down of the city before you can be 100% sure it will hit is overkill. According to what I've heard, Fox News and friends were castigating the mayor for not closing the schools early enough during last year's snowstorm. It seems like his enemies want it both ways. Quote Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. -- Kenneth Boulding, 1973
Big Guy Posted January 29, 2015 Author Report Posted January 29, 2015 If nothing else, this could be looked at as an "emergency drill" where the response of the public can be gauged and problems rectified. I assume that the first test of an emergency response system should not be an emergency. Quote Note - For those expecting a response from Big Guy: I generally do not read or respond to posts longer then 300 words nor to parsed comments.
jbg Posted January 29, 2015 Report Posted January 29, 2015 The storm got bumped offshore around NT and Boston. Do we know how much snow then fell into the Atlantic? Forecasters do a pretty good job but sometimes they miss. This was/is a huge storm and if warnings weren't given everybody would be really upset. Better safe than sorry as the old adage goes.Exactly my point. More likely rain if falling into the Atlantic but we agree. Quote Free speech: "You can say what you want, but I don't have to lend you my megaphone." Always remember that when you are in the right you can afford to keep your temper, and when you are in the wrong you cannot afford to lose it. - J.J. Reynolds. Will the steps anyone is proposing to fight "climate change" reduce a single temperature, by a single degree, at a single location? The mantra of "world opinion" or the views of the "international community" betrays flabby and weak reasoning (link).
WIP Posted January 29, 2015 Report Posted January 29, 2015 The storm got bumped offshore around NT and Boston. Do we know how much snow then fell into the Atlantic? Forecasters do a pretty good job but sometimes they miss. This was/is a huge storm and if warnings weren't given everybody would be really upset. Better safe than sorry as the old adage goes. I was watching the weather channel closely, and at the peak intense period of the storm, most of the precipitation was falling over the Atlantic. So anyone with an ounce of sense, should consider it to be like dodging a bullet. Quote Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. -- Kenneth Boulding, 1973
On Guard for Thee Posted January 29, 2015 Report Posted January 29, 2015 I was watching the weather channel closely, and at the peak intense period of the storm, most of the precipitation was falling over the Atlantic. So anyone with an ounce of sense, should consider it to be like dodging a bullet. Unfortunately the Canadian east coast didn't quite dodge that bullet. I was just chatting with a friend who was visiting family down there and she said it was "wicked". I held short of gloating about the west coast wx. Quote
WIP Posted January 29, 2015 Report Posted January 29, 2015 Unfortunately the Canadian east coast didn't quite dodge that bullet. I was just chatting with a friend who was visiting family down there and she said it was "wicked". I held short of gloating about the west coast wx. You're right. It seems like even our media was devoting more attention to the storm coverage in Boston, than in Newfoundland. Quote Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. -- Kenneth Boulding, 1973
guyser Posted January 29, 2015 Report Posted January 29, 2015 You're right. It seems like even our media was devoting more attention to the storm coverage in Boston, than in Newfoundland.Perhaps, but in Newfoundland a storm like that in January is called Tuesday. Quote
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