Conservative attack adds on Trudeau:Right on schedule

[hitops]

Not true.

I believe there are seats in BC,Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia that went to the NDP from conservative.

I agree that the NDP huge growth spurt did come from the liberal,bloq and greens.But now that the NDP is official opposition and very strong in the role,there appeal will be extend into the less traditional conservative areas.

I find many conservative voters just that,conservative in their voting habits and slow to change their vote,but still open to change!

Give it some time because these things take many years.

WWWTT

You said not true, and then agreed that NDP growth does did not come from CPC. So I'm confused.

[punked]

It's the simple fact that the NDP does not take votes from the CPC, those votes came largely from other parties. Both the Block and LIberals lost 40 seats each in the last election, total of 80, and NDP gained most of those. CPC is not going to win much in Quebec. If they lose votes, it will be mostly to the liberals in english Canada, but liberal votes can also have the effect of diminishing the NDP and resulting a CPC win in some ridings. If they destroy Justin by election day, the NDP becomes a real threat. The best strategy would be, IMO, to just let NDP and Liberals fight it out.

Another way to look at it is simply look at Ontario. Nearly all the ridings they lost, they lost to the NDP. In every one of those cases, CPC was second. That means a few more liberal votes gives them those ridings. Because most of the NDP gains in english Canada came from the liberals, it follows that most liberal gains would come back from the NDP rather than from the CPC.

Nope I am sorry you are wrong. Go back and look at your numbers. The Cons have 73 of Ontario's 103 seats they are above their high water mark every point the Liberals gain is an Ontario seat they wont win this election. They like the vote split right where it is right now. Every vote that is gained by the Liberals is a seat in Ontario the Cons lose.

Edited April 16, 2013 by punked

[Keepitsimple]

It seems that most posters believe that the only way Trudeau canm be successful is if he keeps his mouth shut. Even his supporters don't seem to be calling for him to say anything of substance. Doesn't seem to say much about the CBC and Toronto Star choice for the next Prime Minister of Canada, does it?

[BubberMiley]

Today, the Canadian Liver Foundation made the following statement:

The Canadian Liver Foundation is grateful for Mr. Trudeau’s past support of our fundraising efforts. Liver disease is a serious national health issue which does not receive enough attention.

The footage used in the recent political ad was filmed at the Canadian Liver Foundation’s What a Girl Wants fundraiser held November 17, 2011 in Ottawa. Mr. Trudeau was willing to not only attend our event but also generously donate a lunch to be auctioned off to raise funds for liver disease research and education. This auction item raised $1,900 and the event raised $128,000.

The Foundation believes Mr. Trudeau should be applauded for his commitment to an important health issue that affects an estimated 3.4 million Canadians.

Attacking someone for taking part in a fundraiser. Stay classy, CPC.

[hitops]

Nope I am sorry you are wrong. Go back and look at your numbers. The Cons have 73 of Ontario's 103 seats they are above their high water mark every point the Liberals gain is an Ontario seat they wont win this election. They like the vote split right where it is right now. Every vote that is gained by the Liberals is a seat in Ontario the Cons lose.

Ok let's look at the number again. In the last election, the CPC gained 2% of voter share and the NDP gained 12.5%. Liberals lost 7.4% and the Block lost 4%. It's clear that the NDP won votes from the liberals in english Canada, and mostly from the Block in Quebec, far more than from the CPC. The CPC did improve, but that is a VERY modest 'high water mark', if that's what you want to call a 2% gain.

Now back to Ontario. In the vast majority of ridings, where the CPC won, the NDP were second, and vice versa. That means that votes from Liberal to NDP benefitted the CPC. Because we already know that NDP gains were mostly Liberal losses in english Canada, it follows that if the liberals won votes back, they would mostly come back from the NDP. The CPC did not change much, very few would come to them from the CPC. Therefore if the liberals have a better candidate, that is more likely to hurt the NDP than the conservatives.

Looking specifically at the CBC 2011 electoral map results, I cannot find many CPC-won riding in Ontario where shifting the NDP vote to the Liberals would result in a liberal victory, if any. But about half or more of the NDP-won ridings would result in a CPC victory is more votes were shifted to the Liberals.

Hence my conclusion. Chasing voters from Trudeau will mean chasing them to Mulcair, not Harper, for the most part.

Edited April 16, 2013 by hitops

[Archanfel]

Not if Mr. Trudeau realign the Liberals to real liberalism where each citizen is considered a rational being that is free to make choices and take responsibilities for the choices he/she made. Then the Conservaties will be seriously challenged.

Ok, you guys can laugh now.

Edited April 16, 2013 by Archanfel

[WWWTT]

You said not true, and then agreed that NDP growth does did not come from CPC. So I'm confused.

Yes sorry LOL.It should have read "not entirely true"

WWWTT

[punked]

Ok let's look at the number again. In the last election, the CPC gained 2% of voter share and the NDP gained 12.5%. Liberals lost 7.4% and the Block lost 4%. It's clear that the NDP won votes from the liberals in english Canada, and mostly from the Block in Quebec, far more than from the CPC. The CPC did improve, but that is a VERY modest 'high water mark', if that's what you want to call a 2% gain.

Now back to Ontario. In the vast majority of ridings, where the CPC won, the NDP were second, and vice versa. That means that votes from Liberal to NDP benefitted the CPC. Because we already know that NDP gains were mostly Liberal losses in english Canada, it follows that if the liberals won votes back, they would mostly come back from the NDP. The CPC did not change much, very few would come to them from the CPC. Therefore if the liberals have a better candidate, that is more likely to hurt the NDP than the conservatives.

Looking specifically at the CBC 2011 electoral map results, I cannot find many CPC-won riding in Ontario where shifting the NDP vote to the Liberals would result in a liberal victory, if any. But about half or more of the NDP-won ridings would result in a CPC victory is more votes were shifted to the Liberals.

Hence my conclusion. Chasing voters from Trudeau will mean chasing them to Mulcair, not Harper, for the most part.

No you are wrong. The Liberals make up the mushy middle. Harper needs a weak Liberal party to get the center right vote go far right. A strong NDP does that for him.

[WWWTT]

Ok let's look at the number again. In the last election, the CPC gained 2% of voter share and the NDP gained 12.5%. Liberals lost 7.4% and the Block lost 4%. It's clear that the NDP won votes from the liberals in english Canada, and mostly from the Block in Quebec, far more than from the CPC. The CPC did improve, but that is a VERY modest 'high water mark', if that's what you want to call a 2% gain.

There are two factors that you are not including.

The voter turnout in 2011 was much improved over 2008.And the green vote went down.

WWWTT

[Shakeyhands]

for you aspiring attack ummm.... ad'ers.

http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2013/04/16/is_that_the_worst_you_can_do_send_in_your_attack_ads.html

I so wish our friend from Halton was still around...

[Shakeyhands]

There are two factors that you are not including.

The voter turnout in 2011 was much improved over 2008.And the green vote went down.

WWWTT

Stats are fun!

[Bryan]

I love how the left keeps saying these ads will backfire on the Conservatives. Now where have I heard that before.....

A Short History of Backfiring Reporters

Here's Canwest News Service in early 2007, 20 months before the Stephane Dion-led Liberals lost 18 seats and the federal election:

"Negative Tory ads could backfire, say experts."

Here's The Canadian Press on March 2nd, 2009, before the Conservatives' attack ads against Michael Ignatieff were released:

"Any attempt by the Tories to smear rookie Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff would backfire with recession-ravaged Canadians, Liberals say."

Canadian Press headline in May, 2009, after the ads were released and two years before the Ignatieff-led Liberals were decimated in the federal election:

"Tory attack ads find audience, but could backfire: poll."

The Star, June 1, 2009:

"Tory attack ads backfiring..."

Now, the Justin Trudeau era. An editorial in today's Star --

"Conservative attacks on Justin Trudeau backfire on Harper".

A CTV report published today, with the byline "CTVNews.ca Staff", begins --

"Attack ads released hours after Justin Trudeau was named leader of the Liberal party, framing the 41-year-old as being "way over his head," may backfire on the governing Conservatives, says one public relations expert."

Ah yes, the experts. In yesterday's Globe and Mail, in report headlined "Negative ad strategy holds risks for Conservatives, experts say", Gloria Galloway writes:

"Can the ads backfire, and under what circumstances? All three experts said yes..."

http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/a-short-history.html

Edited April 17, 2013 by Bryan

[BubberMiley]

I love how the left keeps saying these ads will backfire on the Conservatives. Now where have I heard that before.....

Maybe it was when The Left said that it might backfire for Romney to take quotations wildly out of context.

In other words, keep on underestimating the intelligence of voters, CPC. They'll just trust you that Justin Trudeau said that Quebeckers are better than the rest of Canada.

[Benz]

Attacking Trudeau's credibility is like killing a fly with dynamite. Trudeau doesn't have any credibility and such negative attacks may turn out against the CPC. Trudeau's skull might be empty, still he has a pretty face and may gain sympathy just because of the negativeness the CPC will abuse of. It's obvious Trudeau will bet everything on the image. What else can he offer anyway.

[ReeferMadness]

These ads are so low they're beneath contempt.

[Bryan]

These ads are so low they're beneath contempt.

If you believe that, what you're saying is you believe Trudeau himself to be beneath contempt.

[WWWTT]

Maybe it was when The Left said that it might backfire for Romney to take quotations wildly out of context.

In other words, keep on underestimating the intelligence of voters, CPC. They'll just trust you that Justin Trudeau said that Quebeckers are better than the rest of Canada.

You're comparing Justin to Barak???

Furthermore,our political systems are different,we have a parliamentary representation.

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

These ads are so low they're beneath contempt.

Actually I find them very amusing and done with a strong traditional Canadian flavour of humor!

WWWTT

[PIK]

I wish he would start sounding like a politicion instead of a drama queen and his little speech on boston and how it is seared into his nightmares.

Edited April 17, 2013 by PIK

[hitops]

No you are wrong. The Liberals make up the mushy middle. Harper needs a weak Liberal party to get the center right vote go far right. A strong NDP does that for him.

But that's not what happened. At their weakest, liberal party voters went mostly to the NDP rather than CPC. See the numbers in previous post. The liberal party is positioned to take more NDP than CPC votes, if last election's numbers are any hint.

[Spiderfish]

...the Tories better start getting some good material.

If this is really the best they've got they're in big trouble.

I was thinking the same thing about the Liberals.

[Guest Derek L]

But that's not what happened. At their weakest, liberal party voters went mostly to the NDP rather than CPC. See the numbers in previous post. The liberal party is positioned to take more NDP than CPC votes, if last election's numbers are any hint.

Exactly, and the Liberals will have to make their "initial assault" on Quebec………Will a tact to the left under Justin help them steal NDP market share? Who’s to say, but you can damn well bet the NDP won’t oppose any Conservative attack adds on the Liberals……

[Guest Derek L]

I wish he would start sounding like a politicion instead of a drama queen and his little speech on boston and how it is seared into his nightmares.

Exactly……If the Prime Minister of Canada and faced with a similar attack, would he suffer from nightmares or bring in the army and allow the police to round-up “dissidents” like his father……..

[WWWTT]

But that's not what happened. At their weakest, liberal party voters went mostly to the NDP rather than CPC. See the numbers in previous post. The liberal party is positioned to take more NDP than CPC votes, if last election's numbers are any hint.

Then why the Justin attack adds???

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Exactly, and the Liberals will have to make their "initial assault" on Quebec………Will a tact to the left under Justin help them steal NDP market share? Who’s to say, but you can damn well bet the NDP won’t oppose any Conservative attack adds on the Liberals……

Just like the conservatives won't mind the liberals attacking the NDP,or vise versa.(the NDP will welcome liberals attacking conservatives)

As far as the liberals attacking the NDP in Quebec?That's going to be a tuff one with Mulcair at the helm and many young likeable NDP MP's!

Pretty much kiss the 5 conservative MP's in Quebec goodbye,they're going to have a hard time come 2015.

WWWTT