New Technology and Job Losses

[Michael Hardner]

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20130409-robot-truck-platoons-roll-forward

Automated vehicles are coming, and with that we will lose an entire class of medium-pay jobs.

As McLuhan has illustrated, major technological change pretty much always results in a violent reaction in society. In this case, we can see what will happen: the owners of the technology and industry will pocket huge savings, consumers will benefit to a secondary degree ... and the masses of unemployed will be told to 'get a job'.

Question: What should we be doing differently about managing technological and social change, if anything ?

[Guest]

I think the new jobs in Emergency Services will make up for it.

[Bonam]

If the technology works as planned and delivers on its promise, then society will realize the following benefits:

- Reduced traffic

- Increased highway capacity without building new infrastructure

- Reduced fuel usage leading to lower oil prices, spurring growth in other areas

- Reduced greenhouse gas and pollution emissions, leading to a better environment

- Improved transportation and delivery times since trucks will be able to drive 24/7

- Reduced road accidents saving thousands of lives

Additionally new jobs will be created in:

- Truck & car robotics and automation

- Oversight, guarding, and refueling of unmanned vehicles

- Law, insurance, and regulation of unmanned vehicles

- Infrastructure design, updating, and construction to improve flow of mixed human/automatic traffic

Now, some truck drivers will lose their jobs. But, given the list of benefits above, this technology likely represents a strong net benefit to society, if it pans out. Or, if the technology doesn't pan out as expected, then the truck drivers will keep their jobs.

As I pointed out in the RBC thread, technological progress makes fundamental changes to society, bringing new benefits that more than offset the loss of now-obsolete jobs, which is in stark contrast to the practice of simply replacing current employees with others, where nothing changes except perhaps a slight savings (if even that) in the cost of the labour.

Edited April 12, 2013 by Bonam

[eyeball]

Question: What should we be doing differently about managing technological and social change, if anything ?

We should be increasing the moral pressure to make society's betters rich.

The last thing we want is the proles thinking technological change will somehow get them off the hook.

... and the masses of unemployed will be told to 'get a job'.

[Michael Hardner]

As I pointed out in the RBC thread, technological progress makes fundamental changes to society, bringing new benefits that more than offset the loss of now-obsolete jobs, which is in stark contrast to the practice of simply replacing current employees with others, where nothing changes except perhaps a slight savings (if even that) in the cost of the labour.

You're missing a step though. Your assessments of benefits is on the mark, as is your assessment of new jobs, and the fact that there will be social change. But how will the transition happen ? When machines came to society, a few got very rich - those who owned the machines - and there was no occupation for those whose livlihoods were lost.

My question from the OP stands - how will/can we manage the coming social change differently than in the past ?

So far we have 1 serious but incomplete answer, for which I am very grateful. And 2 sarcastic answers.

[Guest]

Deleted: I just got up, sorry.

Edited April 13, 2013 by bcsapper

[RNG]

I would be very scared to have someone, in fact anyone implement solutions to what are at present imaginary problems. In my experience the futurists have had an abysmal track record.

All changes have some negative effect. A "good" change carries with it a small, short-term negative effect and results fairly quickly into an improved situation. For example replacing a terrible boss with a good boss. There is still uncertainty and having to learn their particular traits. I won't both wasting your time with examples of bad change.

I think most of the younger generation now realize that the old truths so many of us grew up with, for example that you got a job and stuck it out and that led to a comfortable pension is not a given anymore. Hell, even governments are cutting back and letting people go in the current environment. So hopefully we won't have to do much since the population is becoming more and more aware of these things being operative and have some type of contingency plans.