F-35 Purchase Cancelled; CF-18 replacement process begins

[waldo]

Not quite, I do remember a time when we discussed the varying purchase prices, both inclusive of Lockheed aircraft prices and P&W prices for the engine, equating to a flyaway cost............said practice is no different for any other program.

None the less, said price would be a flyaway cost

no - in the past you have absolutely presented cost figures without qualifying it did not include the cost of the engine. It was quite the "tactic" used by LockMart for a while... of course, once the blogosphere latched onto it with all the scorn/criticism thrown at LockMart for "playing with figures", that eventually ended. But you did your part in pushing that lil' piece of propaganda.

notwithstanding it's quite rich to actually speak of a "flyaway" cost in the context of LRIP... notwithstanding no real specifics of what's included... and what's not included... within that cost ever seems to be clearly defined - how convenient.

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[waldo]

You're in agreement that sans international orders, per my link, the line would have closed in 2016.....per the then French Defense Minister

no - again, French orders existed on through to 2019... from that same 2013 dated article, your linked reference:

France will about halve its purchases of Dassault Rafale fighter jet planes over the next six years (waldo: 2013 plus 6 equals... wait for it... 2019).

Sources close to the minister said the estimates were based in part on a hypothesis that at least one country among other potential buyers would place an order before the end of 2019. (waldo: 2019? Why would that year be mentioned? )

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[waldo]

I provided two links with the cost of the additional purchases, in addition, the USNI link provided the breakdown for the more costly USN/USMC aircraft......simple math Waldo.........I have zero inclination to go through a ~2000 page US Government budget document to provide you with further proof.

I've looked at your 2 links...

You realize next Year's LRIP production of the F-35 is over 60 aircraft, in addition, the DoD has bought 11 additional F-35s, more than expected? (and the flyaway cost of the F-35A is now $98 million per?)

please provide a quote that supports your claim of a $98 million "flyaway cost" for the F-35A... or show your D 2.0 math that allowed you to arrive at such a figure. And while you're doing that, please state what's actually included within that so-called "flyaway".

[Derek 2.0]

no - again, French orders existed on through to 2019... from that same 2013 dated article, your linked reference:

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From the quoted passage:

the estimates were based in part on a hypothesis that at least one country among other potential buyers would place an order before the end of 2019.

Absent an order, the line was to close in 2016.......Dassault got additional orders, as such, the French Government can continue to procure additional aircraft.

[Derek 2.0]

notwithstanding it's quite rich to actually speak of a "flyaway" cost in the context of LRIP... notwithstanding no real specifics of what's included... and what's not included... within that cost ever seems to be clearly defined - how convenient.

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The term flyaway should be self explanatory......the cost of the sole aircraft once it rolls out of the plant in Fort Worth....no support costs, no training aides, no munitions (in the case of legacy aircraft, no ECM/EW/targeting pods etc).

[Derek 2.0]

please provide a quote that supports your claim of a $98 million "flyaway cost" for the F-35A...

I will, bet on it, once LRIP 10 is signed in the coming weeks and the contract details of both LRIP 9 and 10 are made public

or show your D 2.0 math that allowed you to arrive at such a figure.

Sure:

in all $1.33 billion for 11 additional F-35s: six more for the Marine Corps, three more for the Air Force and two more F-35s for the Navy.

Above is the total price for the additional F-35s, and the breakdown of the differing versions......

The Cost of the F-35B and F-35C:

The bill would also add $780 million for six additional F-35B Joint Strike Fighters for the Marine Corps and $255 million for two additional F-35C JSFs for the Navy

$1.33 Billion minus $780 + $255 = $295 million remaining

$295 million / 3 F-35As (For the USAF) = $98.3 million

And while you're doing that, please state what's actually included within that so-called "flyaway".

Nothing more than the what is required for the end user to "flyaway" the aircraft from Lockheed's Fort Worth plant/joint reserve base Fort Worth.

[waldo]

Absent an order, the line was to close in 2016.......

how does a production line close in 2016 while its still producing aircraft for the French military on through to 2019?

[waldo]

The term flyaway should be self explanatory......the cost of the sole aircraft once it rolls out of the plant in Fort Worth....no support costs, no training aides, no munitions (in the case of legacy aircraft, no ECM/EW/targeting pods etc).

which is why it's typically a farce to speak of "flyaway cost" until full production... particularly in the case of the F-35A which still, even after 8 iterations, still can't do diddly-squat. What should be talked about is the actual cost - the actual cost reflected within those respective U.S. House/Senate appropriation bills. You know, the costs that actually represent procurement and costs to upgrade existing prior LRIP versions and costs to roll across year-to-year appropriations bills (so-called "long-lead" funding that spans across LRIPs).

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[waldo]

$1.33 Billion minus $780 + $255 = $295 million remaining

$295 million / 3 F-35As (For the USAF) = $98.3 million

perfect! Nothing quite captures the nonsense you continue to play out with F-35 costing like this post of yours. Let me take your interpretation further:

- by D2.0 math, you would imply that the cost of a F-35C for the U.S. Navy is... $255/2 => $127 million --- and yet, the 2015 U.S. Senate appropriations bill, just with procurement costing alone, has the F-35C @ $297 million ($594/2). Geezaz! That's quite the drop.

- by D2.0 math, you would imply that the cost of a F-35B for the U.S. Marines is... $780/6 => $130 million --- and yet, the 2015 U.S. Senate appropriations bill, just with procurement costing alone, has the F-35B @ $200 million ($1,200/6). Geezaz! That's quite the drop.

- by D2.0 math, you would imply that the cost of a F-35A for the U.S. Air Force is... $295/3 => $98 million --- and yet, the 2015 U.S. Senate appropriations bill, just with procurement costing alone, has the F-35A @ $128 million ($3,331/26). Geezaz! That's quite the drop.

(again, those costs don't include upgrade costs to bring prior LRIP aircraft forward to the latest LRIP... nor do they include so-called "long-lead" costs that span across LRIPs). And, again, the most significant/complex testing has yet to be done!

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[Derek 2.0]

how does a production line close in 2016 while its still producing aircraft for the French military on through to 2019?

It wouldn't, as the then Defense Minister stated, post 2016, further production would be reliant upon international orders

[waldo]

It wouldn't, as the then Defense Minister stated, post 2016, further production would be reliant upon international orders

no - again, no production line closes in 2016... while its still producing planes until 2019!

[Derek 2.0]

perfect! Nothing quite captures the nonsense you continue to play out with F-35 costing like this post of yours. Let me take your interpretation further:

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Which Senate Bill? (i.e. which fiscal year) You're not suggesting these days old articles are wrong?

- by D2.0 math, you would imply that the cost of a F-35A for the U.S. Air Force is... $295/3 => $98 million --- and yet, the 2015 U.S. Senate appropriations bill, just with procurement costing alone, has the F-35A @ $128 million($3,331/26). Geezaz! That's quite the drop.

Directly related to the larger block buys, resulting in larger block production........just imagine how much it will drop once its in full rate production!!!

(again, those costs don't include upgrade costs to bring prior LRIP aircraft forward to the latest LRIP... nor do they include so-called "long-lead" costs that span across LRIPs). And, again, the most significant/complex testing has yet to be done!

Why would they? They also don't include fuel consumption, pilot's salary, cutting the grass at the air fields, dependent's dental costs etc etc etc.........

Presently, 78% of the aircraft's testing is complete.......

[Derek 2.0]

no - again, no production line closes in 2016... while its still producing planes until 2019!

Explain the then French Defense Minister's reference to 2016......

[waldo]

Explain the then French Defense Minister's reference to 2016......

you explain how a production is closed... when its still producing aircraft!

[Derek 2.0]

which is why it's typically a farce to speak of "flyaway cost" until full production...

Sure, because once its in full production it will be even cheaper.

particularly in the case of the F-35A which still, even after 8 iterations, still can't do diddly-squat.

IOC is months away, and as cited earlier, the first USAF squadron will go into the pool of combat capable aircraft.........

[Derek 2.0]

you explain how a production is closed... when its still producing aircraft!

Why would she bring up 2016 or the requirement of International orders to continue production through to 2019?

[waldo]

Why would she bring up 2016 or the requirement of International orders to continue production through to 2019?

you're reading what you want into that... again, is a production line closed if it's still producing planes?

[Derek 2.0]

you're reading what you want into that... again, is a production line closed if it's still producing planes?

Clearly, in the context of her then remarks, the line being underpinned to International orders post 2016, absent said orders, wouldn't be producing planes.

[waldo]

Which Senate Bill? (i.e. which fiscal year) You're not suggesting these days old articles are wrong?

already stated: U.S. Senate - 2015 Department Of Defense Appropriations Bill. Your "days old articles" are not the actual bills... just as your selective and self-serving D2.0 math is not the actual procurement costing.

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Directly related to the larger block buys, resulting in larger block production........just imagine how much it will drop once its in full rate production!!!

huh! "Larger block buys"? Say what: 2015 is 26 F-35A planes... 2016 is hardly "more". I put this following graphic forward earlier; of course, you ignored it. As I'm aware it reflects the most current U.S. DOD procurement timeline. Where's that "large block buy" difference between 2015 and 2016, particularly focused on a per U.S. military branch? Once again, your nonsense percolates to the top!

I gave you the number comparisons between your D2.0 math and the 2015 U.S. Senate appropriations bill... do you stand by your pricing implications for all 3 variants of the F-35? Yes or No?

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[waldo]

Clearly, in the context of her then remarks, the line being underpinned to International orders post 2016, absent said orders, wouldn't be producing planes.

you mean other than the ones for the French military on through to 2019... other than those? Just answer the question... is a production line closed if its still producing planes?

[waldo]

IOC is months away, and as cited earlier, the first USAF squadron will go into the pool of combat capable aircraft.........

just like the Marines F-35B IOC? Like that "combat capable"?

[Derek 2.0]

I gave you the number comparisons between your D2.0 math and the 2015 U.S. Senate appropriations bill... do you stand by your pricing implications for all 3 variants of the F-35? Yes or No?

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Of course, since you're stuck on LRIP 6/7 pricing, since fiscal year 2015 appropriations were initially requested in the Spring of 2014......nearly two years ago and four production contracts ago.

[Derek 2.0]

you mean other than the ones for the French military on through to 2019... other than those? Just answer the question... is a production line closed if its still producing planes?

The ones underpinned on international orders post 2016?

[waldo]

Presently, 78% of the aircraft's testing is complete.......

"Lorne Thompson"... from probably the biggest F-35 fanboy there is! Have you no shame? The only legitimate accounting of test progress comes from either the U.S. GAO review or from the Pentagon’s Director of Operational Test & Evaluation. In the past I've put forward posts rererencing from both sources detailing the abysmal testing progress and results... posts that you completely ignored! I note your source doesn't bother to provide any details on his statement that "The F-35 has completed 78% of its 8,000-sortie flight test program"... whatever the hell that actually means. Do you have a legitimate source that speaks to actual test points and related results for all facets of the planes infrastructure, weapon systems, etc. ... notwithstanding past occurrences where test points were "adjusted" to allow "successful completion"!

riddle me this: within the F-35 concurrency methodology (where development proceeds in parallel with testing), how much of testing needs to be redone when new faults/failings arise that impact upon prior testing results?

[waldo]

The ones underpinned on international orders post 2016?

what the hell does that even mean? Again, is a production line closed when it is still producing planes?