Ontario NDP leading Polls

[Mr.Canada]

I'm actually thinking it'd be great to see the NDP win in Ontario. The last time they governed the province hatred for them destroyed the federal party, and once they were defeated they were replaced with a strong conservative government that reformed Ontario.

The rae days almost bankrupted Ontario. I don't know if we can withstand that again.

[Newfoundlander]

The rae days almost bankrupted Ontario. I don't know if we can withstand that again.

You'd save the country though!

[MiddleClassCentrist]

I'm actually thinking it'd be great to see the NDP win in Ontario. The last time they governed the province hatred for them destroyed the federal party, and once they were defeated they were replaced with a strong conservative government that reformed Ontario.

Ontario is already more conservative that Alberta. We have fewer public servants, and spend less on social policies than they do.

The RAE NDP government was trying to act responsibly. It just didn't go over well.

NDP governments elected in Canada have a better record on Fiscal spending than the Cons or Libs, BTW.

Cons and Libs are big spenders, just spend on Corporate supporters and other pet projects.

[Newfoundlander]

Ontario is already more conservative that Alberta. We have fewer public servants, and spend less on social policies than they do.

The RAE NDP government was trying to act responsibly. It just didn't go over well.

NDP governments elected in Canada have a better record on Fiscal spending than the Cons or Libs, BTW.

Cons and Libs are big spenders, just spend on Corporate supporters and other pet projects.

There have been soooo many NDP governments too.

[punked]

There have been soooo many NDP governments too.

There have been quite a few. Remind me what is the count right now in the country with NDP, Con, Lib, and other.

[Newfoundlander]

There have been quite a few. Remind me what is the count right now in the country with NDP, Con, Lib, and other.

My issues with the report, or page that someone typed up, is that it gave little detail and made no sense. I'll admit the NDP have provided good governance in some provinces, and my previous comments on this subject are just partisan.

My issues with the report is that you can't compare how the NDP in Manitoba did in 2003 with how the PCs did in Newfoundland and Labrador in 1986.

As well just because parties have the same names doesn't mean they all govern alike. If someone came out with a report saying the NDP have done a better job balancing the budget because they implemented these 6 policies compared to the Liberals because they implement these policies then it would make some sense.

Even though the NDP have affiliated parties in 9 provinces they all run on different policies. Lorraine Michael has campaigned on free post secondary education, full day kindergarten and universal child care. None of the provinces where the NDP have governed has any of these things to my knowledge. The PC Party in this province have been more left wing then some NDP governments. I've seen it written that Roy Romanow's NDP government was like a PC government, Darrel Dexter is criticized for his "austerity budgets". People say Gary Doer was a big L Liberal and I saw an article a few weeks ago from a New Democrat that the Manitoba NDP campaigned to the right of the PC Party last year.

[TheNewTeddy]

The Ontario NDP has an inefficient vote distribution, and will not win a majority if they win the popular vote - or even a minority.

These numbers are a bit out of date, but lets use them.

http://esm.ubc.ca/ON11/forecast.php

I'll teach you how to forecast elections the way I do - and the way everyone else does after seeing how well what I do works.

Firstly take our poll numbers.

N36 P35 L22

Now, without changing any numbers on the link, hit "forecast"

This will show us that our "starting point" is

L42.3 P31.6 N16.8 G8.0 O1.3

Now hit the back button.

Since the Greens won't be winning any seats, and Independents can not be forecast this way, set the GRP-GRP square to 0.000 and the OTR-OTR square the 0.000 as well.

(if you are lost already, you might not be able to figure all of this out sorry)

Now what we need to do is figure out our "ratio". Doing that is simple. Whip out a calculator and throw in our two NDP numbers 16.8 and 36. You are going to divide them. We get 0.46666 This is our base factor. Now apply that "base factor" to our poll. It changes as so.

N16.8 P16.3 L10.3

This is the exact same poll, but at lower numbers. Numbers we can work with. Now you divide the PC and Liberal numbers by the PC and Liberal numbers. Both should result in something below 0.

Our PC number is 16.3 divided 31.6 which results in 0.430. This is the number we put in the PC-PC cell on that website.

The Liberal number is 0.243

Now hit "show results by" and pick your fav option. I'm choosing PC descending.

Hit forecast and POW

The results are

PC - 53 seats

NDP - 44 seats

Lib - 10 seats

What you've done here is a projection by ratio. It is a bit "weird" because you are forced to have 1 as a maximum. What the ratio says is the Liberals are going to lose 3/4ths of their vote per riding and the PC Party about half. Reality is the NDP will pick up votes, but this website does not have a way to show that.

This works far better than a "raw swing". The Liberals are down 20 points so many just lower their result in each riding by 20. What of the ridings where the Liberals took less than 20 points? Are they going to pick up negative votes? (I wish!)

You can now scroll though these results to see what the riding by riding projection is. To help, I shall prepare a map!

[TheNewTeddy]

Map!

http://i1218.photobucket.com/albums/dd408/TheNewTeddy/ontprov.png