Canada suffers from Dutch Disease

Canuckistani · May 30, 2012

Devilled eggs. MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.

waldo · May 30, 2012

a uniquely Canadian strain of Dutch Disease! ... "tarsands fever"... producing near-term economic benefits that are often overstated and unevenly spread across the country, and may be masking more significant long-term economic challenges.

Fletch 27 · May 31, 2012

DAMB YOU POTASH! When will Torontonians stop having penis envy, job envy, good hair envy, etc.etc. Suck it up buttercup, your now the armpit you used to call Calgary. Get over it. Take being a have-not graciously and let's roll on.

a uniquely Canadian strain of Dutch Disease! ... "tarsands fever"... producing near-term economic benefits that are often overstated and unevenly spread across the country, and may be masking more significant long-term economic challenges.

waldo · May 31, 2012

Get over it. Take being a have-not graciously and let's roll on.

do you have insights into alleviating Canada's Dutch Disease?

Timeline: Diagnosis of Dutch disease in Canada
1989 Ansari —asymmetry in the wage behavior in Canada “seems to support the basic tenets of

the Dutch disease hypothesis.”146

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2006 Lefebvre — “There are a number of signs [of Dutch disease] but, on the whole, the effects

seem likely to be limited.”147

Bergevin — “The Canadian economy is exhibiting many symptoms of the Dutch Disease”148

2008 OECD — “So far, there are no clear signs of Dutch disease. Nevertheless, the risk of

developing symptoms…requires close policy vigilance.”149

2010 Conference Board of Canada — “Canadian firms are now being exposed to the Dutch

disease virus…. Some firms… will fall prey and could well succumb...”150

CAIRN — there is “…some evidence of Dutch disease in the Canadian economy (at least in

some industries)” and recommended that future research investigate “…what Canada can do

to immunize its economy against this disease and avoid permanent lower rates of growth

resulting from a contraction of tradable innovative industries.”151

2011 MRB Partners — Canada has “advanced Dutch disease”/”severe case of Dutch disease”152

Bimenyimana & Valée — “…facts on the ground strongly suggest that Canada might suffer

from its own strain of the Dutch disease.”153

2012 Beine et al — “Part of the contraction in some manufacturing industries is due to a pure

Dutch disease effect”154

(146 Ansari, “The Dutch disease: The Canadian evidence,” 811.

147 Lefebvre, “Petrocurrency,” 1.

148 Bergevin, Energy Resources: Boon or Curse for the Canadian?, 6.

149 OECD Economic Surveys: Canada (2008), 25.

150 Hodgson, Learning to Live With a Strong Canadian Dollar, 7.

151 Shakeri and Gray, Has Canada caught Dutch Disease?, 2.

152 MRB Partners, O Canada (Part I) and Uh-Oh Canada (Part II), 16.

153 Bimenyimana and Valée, “Curing the Dutch disease in Canada,” 75.

154 Beine, Bos and Coulombe, Does the Canadian Economy Suffer from the Dutch Disease?, 2.

155 IRPP, Dutch Disease or failure to compete?, 23.)

Fletch 27 · May 31, 2012

Dude, grow up.... When I heard "hypothesis" in high school we all knew it meant...."let's see if this sticks"... Omg... Really? It's "fact" now? Even your boy is backing down off of that... Really? You cited a "hypothesis"?

My "hypothesis" for tomorrow will be that if I spend 9 dollars on a pack of smokes, I will be rewarded in a winning lottery ticket by end of day.... I will keep you posted on me expected great results.... Duh

do you have insights into alleviating Canada's Dutch Disease?

waldo · May 31, 2012

Dude, grow up.... When I heard "hypothesis" in high school we all knew it meant...."let's see if this sticks"... Omg... Really? It's "fact" now? Even your boy is backing down off of that... Really? You cited a "hypothesis"?

so... you did go to high-school! You could take that lofty education of yours and attempt to dispute the premise that Canada is, 'suffering from Dutch Disease'. You could do that, right?

Fletch 27 · May 31, 2012

Duhhhh... I just did that... It's a "hypothesis".... I dispute it... A "hypothesis" by all means and ambitions must be proven. This one has NOT been. Google has the one word in the first sentence....."hypothesis".... It will be a reaaaal eye opener I'm sure for you. Maybe check one of your blots for the term... I'm sure it will mean "Fact"!

so... you did go to high-school! You could take that lofty education of yours and attempt to dispute the premise that Canada is, 'suffering from Dutch Disease'. You could do that, right?

waldo · May 31, 2012

Duhhhh... I just did that... It's a "hypothesis".... I dispute it.

:lol: a "Fletch 27" verbal... unsubstantiated... dispute, carries no weight!

Fletch 27 · May 31, 2012

Dude... Before u look stupid..... Google "definition of hypothesis"..... I'm trying to help you here... Your quoting a "hypothesis"... I should really know what one is!

a "Fletch 27" verbal... unsubstantiated... dispute, carries no weight!

waldo · May 31, 2012

a "Fletch 27" verbal... unsubstantiated... dispute, carries no weight!

buddy, you can't reject simply based upon your vaunted verbal say - disprove it... sure you can! Step up and disprove that Canada is, 'affected by Dutch Disease'. Sure you can. The timeline reference I quoted/linked to includes almost a dozen references... perhaps you could start there, hey?

mentalfloss · May 31, 2012

Was listening to Power and Politics last night, and it sounds like Mulcair is being vindicated. The point ultimately rests that a case of dutch disease exists. The degree of which is what is now to be determined.

TimG · May 31, 2012

The point ultimately rests that a case of dutch disease exists.

Nonsense. Muclair is making political hay over the idea that the dutch disease and that government needs to act to counter its effects. Being able to show it is a minor effect that requires no special action on the part of government completely repudiates Muclair.

Canuckistani · May 31, 2012

I wouldn't say that 1/3 of manufacturing job losses is a minor effect. The report itself suggests things the govt should be doing. Just that setting your hair on fire isn't one of them.

mentalfloss · May 31, 2012

I wouldn't say that 1/3 of manufacturing job losses is a minor effect. The report itself suggests things the govt should be doing. Just that setting your hair on fire isn't one of them.

And even if it is minor right now, it's pretty obvious that the situation will become amplified if we focus entirely on resource extraction.

Smallc · May 31, 2012

Who said anything about focusing entirely on resource extraction? Who's doing that?

Canuckistani · May 31, 2012

And even if it is minor right now, it's pretty obvious that the situation will become amplified if we focus entirely on resource extraction.

The real danger is what happens when he resources run out or aren't in demand anymore. Canada for my entire life has agonized about being hewers of wood and drawers of water, and how we wanted to move beyond that. All of a sudden it's back to the future, and we're just fine with that.

Keepitsimple · May 31, 2012

Was listening to Power and Politics last night, and it sounds like Mulcair is being vindicated. The point ultimately rests that a case of dutch disease exists. The degree of which is what is now to be determined.

That's because the CBC focused on a report by the Pembina Institute....they are not a public policy think tank, nor do they have any balanced expertise in Economics - they are Environmental Activists. "Vindication" at the hands of CBC/Pembina is.....well, it is what it is.

waldo · May 31, 2012

Was listening to Power and Politics last night, and it sounds like Mulcair is being vindicated. The point ultimately rests that a case of dutch disease exists. The degree of which is what is now to be determined.

exactly... there are now many studies, several recent, several going back at least a dozen years. The question is a matter of degrees on how significant Dutch Disease has permeated and which manufacturing-industry sectors have been most affected.

TimG · May 31, 2012

I wouldn't say that 1/3 of manufacturing job losses is a minor effect. The report itself suggests things the govt should be doing. Just that setting your hair on fire isn't one of them.

There are many reports on the topic. You are quoting the worst case scenario. Other analysis have concluded that high value sectors like auto have not been impacted by the dollar much (it is the competition which is killing jobs in Canada and in the US).

mentalfloss · May 31, 2012

There are many reports on the topic. You are quoting the worst case scenario. Other analysis have concluded that high value sectors like auto have not been impacted by the dollar much (it is the competition which is killing jobs in Canada and in the US).

Actually, the situation gets worse as production goes up and costs remain externalized. So what we're seeing so far is the best case scenario. Give it 5-6 years and we may not have a manufacturing sector anymore.

Smallc · May 31, 2012

That's nothing but fear mongering. It's simply uneconomical to produce some things in NA now, because of our globalize world. We have to work on growing all parts of the economy. We can't hold back western resources, we have to find more things for the old economy to do.

wyly · May 31, 2012

Actually since the left has put all it's eggs into the C02 devil, we have forgotten about real pollution.

another one who doesn't understand the entire issue...take a seat in the corner next to TimG...

madmax · June 1, 2012

I wouldn't say that 1/3 of manufacturing job losses is a minor effect. The report itself suggests things the govt should be doing. Just that setting your hair on fire isn't one of them.

1/3 is significant. What is required now is the cost benefit analysis.

madmax · June 1, 2012

That's nothing but fear mongering. It's simply uneconomical to produce some things in NA now, because of our globalize world. We have to work on growing all parts of the economy. We can't hold back western resources, we have to find more things for the old economy to do.

There is nothing in that statement that isn't true since confederation and infact we have been a globalized world since Marco Polo and that need to trade sent some guy Named Columbus on a trek.

Countries have always faced competition from other countries for products and resources and have fought wars over them.

Countries have often balanced inequities in trade, commerce, development and productivity when the market fails or is under/overperforming.

No different then Paul Martin marching to New York to make a case for a stronger Canadian Dollar when the Canadian Fundamentals were being overlooked by the market.

Nothing said is out of the ordinary.

The costs should not be overlooked or Alberta may be looking like the Newfoundland fisheries in 50 years to 100 years , only with an environmental mess left behind for many many many many generations to deal with.

We were looking at a polluted lake in my area. Its stinks so bad its hard to imagine. Its not safe to swim in or fall into. This area was trashed by industrial manufacturing over 100 years ago.

The area is what is now refered to as a Brownsfield. It is nothing in the scope of the tailing ponds.

If the cost of development has been taken into account and/or the governments intent is to pick up the slack. Then the government should let the public know what these costs will be.

Canuckistani · June 1, 2012

There are many reports on the topic. You are quoting the worst case scenario. Other analysis have concluded that high value sectors like auto have not been impacted by the dollar much (it is the competition which is killing jobs in Canada and in the US).

Overall, 1/3 of the manufacturing job losses can be attributed to dutch disease. You can't look at one sector, say it's OK, and then claim that everything is OK. There are other factors that go into our manufacturing job losses - the recession and globalization. But where we can do something, we should be doing it, not just singing lullabys to ourselves that everything's OK. If we could indeed get 1/3 of those jobs back, that would be significant.