what happened in Alberta yesterday

[fellowtraveller]

You have to go back a couple of years to get it right, the recent past greatly affects the present.

1) 2006- Klein quits, leadership battle begins. Frontrunners are an oldboy oilpatch favorite Jim Dinning, Morton as hard right 2nd place, Stelmach as third place rural moderate. The PC leadership process has a couple of quirks in the process, First, anybody in AB can vote on PC leader by buying a $5 memebership. Second, there is preferential voting where not just your fiorst choice but also your second pick can have influence on the winner.

After the first ballot it looks quite likely that Calgary oilpatch fave Dinning will be beaten by calgarysocial dinosaur nightmare Morton. Albertans including many non-PCs take note and join the party in droves and elect non-Calgarian moderate Stelmach as leader and Premier.

Wildrose is really born at this moment, in two ways. Calgary business peope have picked the PC leader for decades, and they don't like having a northern farmer as Premier because they cannot control him. They don't like it at all, and that includes a bunch of oldschool Tory ministers still in office, icluding Morton himself. There is another group of ministers- the church kind- who also hate it that Morton has lost, since he hates women and gays. The evangelicals massed behind Morton, and came really close to backing his bid for power. They brought many people to Wildrose. Wildrose organizes and fundraises, dissent grows between Stelmach and the old guard within the PCs, many of whom have been MLAs and Minsiters for decades.

Calgary has been shut out of power, for the first time in decades of Calgary based Premiers.

2)Fast forward a few years. Stelmach has won a huge majority, but can see the cracks within his own party and the quiet growth and big oil money and church votes in Wildrose. He knows their support within his own party is almost entirely the extreme right. He knows he will have big trouble from Wildrose if he is leader in the next election, due in a year. He knows a chunk of his support is irretrievably gone, so he knows he a) has to resign and move the Party into the niddle. There are votes to be mined there, because the Liberals are coming apart at the seams. (liberasls got 26% of popular vote in 2008!).

When the leadership campaign runs, the hardcore right rump represented by dinosaurs like Morton and Orman do badly, not surprising since the hard right wing has defected to Wildrose. The two remaining are Gary Mar and Alsion Redford, both centrist Red Tories. They are more or less the same candidate, though Mar is much more oldboy than Redford. Significantly, both are from Calgary.

Redford runs a brilliant campaign and comes from behind to win. Rememeber the ease of joining the PC party to vote on leader, it happens again- many outsiders and many Liberals join the PCS and vote for Redord becuase she is not at all unlike them. The Liberal Party is in serious disarray now, haing elected a new leader themselves(Raj Sherman) who is widely perceived as being a fool.

[u]3)Fast forward to April, 2012.[/u] Redford knows that Wildrose has momentum, but she aso knows through quiet polling that it is soft and there are many undecided. She also knowsd that voter turnout was very low last election, and many Tories stayed home secure in the knowledge then that a win was inevitable.

The campaign for the last weeek for the PCs has three themes: get that vote out, get a viral campaign to highlight the homophobia and social conservatism of the Wildrose, and try to get some strategic voting going so that Libs and NDP will shift votes to her. Of the three, the last was by far the least important since many Liberals had already shifted to her in the center, and NDP voters are the elast likely to vote PC under any circumstances. The most importsant is getting out the vote, since she knew Wildrose had already peaked with committed votes, there weren't any more hard right or hard religious to get.

And it worked.

The voter turnout went from 41% in 2008 to 57% in 2012, an huge increase and very unusual in Canada. They came out because they saw the threat of the draconian social conservatism of Widlrose. They mostly voted PC because they are mostly PC, and they knew Redord was a centrist .

The lack of impact of strategic voting was clear with NDP support increasing from 8% in 2008 to 10% in 2012. If there had been any significant startegic voting, it should have dropped.

The Liberals polled a solid 26% in 2008 and a dismal 10% this year. All of that 16% went to Redford, but it did not go on April 23, it went in the previous three years as the party collapsed. The Libs really jumped ship when they helped elect Redford as PC leader, and many more left when they elected the dismal Raj Sherman.

The PCs polled 44%, a drop from 52% in 2008. They actually lost much more than 8%, since the Wildrose gained popular vote dramatically from 7% to 34%, nearly all from the PCs. The PCs replaced almost all of it with centrist votes from the Liberals.

An interesting result is the electoral map of Alberta. Calgary is overwhelmingly PC, with a couple of Wildrose and Liberals. Edmonton is strongly PC, with a some NDP and a coupke Liberals in the mix. Eveything rural in the north is PC. The only place the Wildrose dominated was southern rural Alberta- the Bible Belt.

4) The future, as in 2016: The biggest political challenges in Alberta will be tied to the economy, and the future is not that bright. America, our only customer, is rapidly increasing domestic oil prodcution. We have no other markets. Natural gas is in very sharp decline as North American inventories soar. The rosy pictures painted by everybody will be very hard to achieve in this environment.

But politically:

NDP won't crack their 10% threshold with their current leader, who is as charismatic as a turnip. They might do a little bit better with Rachel Notley.

The Liberals are deceased for the foreseeable future, they have conceded the center to the PC and have nowhere to go and nobody to lead them there anyway.

The Wildrose have maxed out their vote now, and have to move to the center socially to expand that. Danielle Smith is well capable of playing that chameleon, but it will not sell well with her power base. Not well at all.

PCs as noted have a perfect base now, with all others isolated and on the far right and left, but face really serious money problems ahead. Howe they handle that will determine their future.

[eyeball]

PCs as noted have a perfect base now, with all others isolated and on the far right and left, but face really serious money problems ahead. Howe they handle that will determine their future.

What really serious money problems, how to spend it?

I thought Alberta was the poster province for fiscal acuity and responsibility that the rest of us are recklessly not emulating.

[fellowtraveller]

I thought Alberta was the poster province for fiscal acuity and responsibility that the rest of us are recklessly not emulating.

Tell you what, do a little homework on natural gas and bitumen prices, then drop back so we can have an informed discussion.

Here is a hint: natural gas price in 2008 was around $12, now it is under $2.

Can you see how that would affect the Canadian economy, not just Alberta?

[Wilber]

Bigger hit for BC. It has lots of gas but little oil.

[waldo]

Here is a hint: natural gas price in 2008 was around $12, now it is under $2. Can you see how that would affect the Canadian economy, not just Alberta?

other factors, ya think? Warm winter... extremely warm winter across North America, current over-supply, and... coal is still king! Those planned and forecast major U.S. shifts to natural gas have been stymied by the industry coal barons and their enabling U.S. GOP puppets (the EPA and clean(er) air is bad don't ya know). The U.S. shale gas push is overdue for a dose of safety reality... in any case, it's current penetration isn't the cause of the current over-supply. And... the Asian LNG market... if (when?) those 13 per month LNG tankers start shipping from Kitimat.....

[waldo]

The lack of impact of strategic voting was clear with NDP support increasing from 8% in 2008 to 10% in 2012. If there had been any significant startegic voting, it should have dropped.

The Liberals polled a solid 26% in 2008 and a dismal 10% this year. All of that 16% went to Redford, but it did not go on April 23, it went in the previous three years as the party collapsed. The Libs really jumped ship when they helped elect Redford as PC leader, and many more left when they elected the dismal Raj Sherman.

your own comment, "NDP voters are the least likely to vote PC under any circumstances", undercuts your position against the impact of strategic voting. In any case, your continued hard-on for Raj Sherman is your self-serving rationale to not accept that strategic voting made a significant difference in the outcome. For what it's worth the polling "experts" seem to be rallying to strategic voting as a key factor in their dismal polling/predictions.

[waldo]

The Wildrose have maxed out their vote now, and have to move to the center socially to expand that. Danielle Smith is well capable of playing that chameleon, but it will not sell well with her power base. Not well at all.

it won't sell... period. In her post-analysis offering, Smith flat-out showed her political expediency... that she would be willing to change on a dime. Wildrose principles... what principles?

Wildrose leader Danielle Smith:

You can only govern with a mandate from the people, and if the people aren’t interested in going a certain direction, you have to be the one to change. You have to be the one to modify your policies to be able to fit where Albertans are. … There are clearly some policies that cause them some pause, cause them some concern. And we have to address those.

The party must revisit its policy on conscience rights, its desire to set up an Alberta pension plan and establish a provincial police force.

Wildrose’s environmental stance also needs to be reviewed.

I think we have to revisit our position on climate change and whether or not Albertans want to see a more comprehensive policy to deal with greenhouse gases

probably the single-most personal stoopid comment from Smith came forward in the CBC televised leaders forum... where Smith ignorantly challenged the science behind AGW climate change. The resounding audience catcalls and boos cascaded into a national media spotlight on the Wildrose flat-earthers!

[eyeball]

Here is a hint: natural gas price in 2008 was around $12, now it is under $2.

Can you see how that would affect the Canadian economy, not just Alberta?

Yes but why couldn't Alberta see that coming and why isn't there a hedge against that built into an energy program? Oh right, I forgot, there is no program. We're just winging it and letting the market blow our fortunes hither and yon. Real smart that.

Edited April 25, 2012 by eyeball

[Tilter]

Yes but why couldn't Alberta see that coming and why isn't there a hedge against that built into an energy program? Oh right, I forgot, there is no program. We're just winging it and letting the market blow our fortunes hither and yon. Real smart that.

If you are Mining oil you have to contend with the accompanying Natural Gas, especially in Alberta. In some areas it's hard to put up a fence--- the gas will blow the posts right out of the hole, which becomes your next gas well :lol:

on the serious side-- I have been on farms in Southern Alberta which use the natural gas that comes up with the Well Water. They use an expander separator to get the gas from the water & then use it to run a generator for electricity, heating & to run the small engines necessary for farm use.

One good program would be to Liquefy the gas & transport it to the eastern Canada. The drivers in Toronto & Montreal (& points between) could use it in their cars as a clean, cheap non-polluting fuel.

[eyeball]

One good program would be to Liquefy the gas & transport it to the eastern Canada. The drivers in Toronto & Montreal (& points between) could use it in their cars as a clean, cheap non-polluting fuel.

Another would be to use it as clean cheap non-polluting fuel to power publicly and privately owned oil refineries in Alberta.

[dlkenny]

What really serious money problems, how to spend it?

I thought Alberta was the poster province for fiscal acuity and responsibility that the rest of us are recklessly not emulating.

Well, it was. Ralph Klein struck a very unique balance. He was ruthless early on and empowered a very strong conservative budget that ultimately got alberta out of debt and into a very enviable fiscal position. He was a strong leader and didn't waiver, he was willing to press forward with the changes that were necessary and not be concerned about the people he angered in the process. He knew alberta would be better for it. When the fiscal ship had been patched and brought back into the black he began using the newly available funds for social programs and infrastructure.

The trouble is that the PC has been in a leadership vacuum since Ralph left. His successors have reverted to standard politics, creating legislation designed to boost popularity and to avoid losing an election rather than making hard decisions that are right for the province. Sometimes the right thing isn't popular and Ralph knew that. Danielle Smith is a strong leader but unfortunately the wildrose has too many hard right, social conservatives to be a logical choice for most people. Redford isn't a leader, she doesn't have a grasp on the fiscal realities of her promises and she doesn't have the guts to make a decision and press forward in the face of adversity. The reason why the Wildrose became so popular is because of Smith's leadership ability, but the reality of the hard right in her party scared average albertans enough that tthey came out to vote against them. That is the reason why we have another PC majority.

Edited April 26, 2012 by dlkenny

[fellowtraveller]

your own comment, "NDP voters are the least likely to vote PC under any circumstances", undercuts your position against the impact of strategic voting. In any case, your continued hard-on for Raj Sherman is your self-serving rationale to not accept that strategic voting made a significant difference in the outcome. For what it's worth the polling "experts" seem to be rallying to strategic voting as a key factor in their dismal polling/predictions.

We already know how much your polling experts know by their laughable results. Your faith in them in the face of the facts is touching. The main reason

Here are some more facts for you: NDP % of the popular vote from 2008 to 2012 actually INCREASED in both Edmonton and Calgary. So I guess they did not vote stategically, wouldn't you agree.

And here is another fact: the Liberal vote did go to Redford, but it went long before the general election on Monday. The Liberals were in big, big trouble before Sherman became leader, his leadership doomed them. They were fortunate indeed to keep official party status and did it on the basis of a few very solid MLAs getting re-elected. I don't see a way out for them, they have lost it all now. Their base is gone, their MLAs are all elected in spite of being Liberals, not because of it.

[fellowtraveller]

Here is the decisive factor on Monday, as described in my #3 in the OP above, and confirmed this morning by a guy called Peter Lougheed

the % of eligible voters who cast ballots went up an astonishing 16% from 2008 to 2012, which may be unprecendented. And they did not vote Wildrose, they voted PC.

That is a reason too why Danielle Smith has a hard road ahead internally, wihtin her party. The bloom is off the Rose(sorry) already, with such a major asskicking on Monday after such huge expectations. Her problem now is: how to expand the vote? I think she is very close to being tapped out, the hard right and strongly organized church groups already voted in their entirety. The people she needs to add are in the cente and left, and Wildrose is the party least likely to appeal to them. If she dares to move to the centre, she will lose a lot of the right.

[fellowtraveller]

Another would be to use it as clean cheap non-polluting fuel to power publicly and privately owned oil refineries in Alberta.

You ned to read up on distribution of commodities like oil, or perhaps understand the semantics of upgrading vs refining.

Natural gas is already used to upgrade bitumen into synthetic crude in Alberta, about 65% presently is done on site(Suncor for example) or at huge complexes like Shells combo upgrader/refinery at Scotford.

But the entire planet refines crude oil locally, not half a plane t away. Finished procuts like gasoline, diesel, lube oils, heating oil are refined much closer to where they are needed.

I agree that more bitumen should be upgraded in Canada before being shipped as synthetic crude.

other factors, ya think?

No, the current very low price in North America for natural gas is due to massive oversupply. That will not change soon.

[waldo]

Here is a hint: natural gas price in 2008 was around $12, now it is under $2. Can you see how that would affect the Canadian economy, not just Alberta?

other factors, ya think? Warm winter... extremely warm winter across North America, current over-supply, and... coal is still king! Those planned and forecast major U.S. shifts to natural gas have been stymied by the industry coal barons and their enabling U.S. GOP puppets (the EPA and clean(er) air is bad don't ya know). The U.S. shale gas push is overdue for a dose of safety reality... in any case, it's current penetration isn't the cause of the current over-supply. And... the Asian LNG market... if (when?) those 13 per month LNG tankers start shipping from Kitimat.....

No, the current very low price in North America for natural gas is due to massive oversupply. That will not change soon.

full quote added to reinforce you conveniently left out my multiple references to, 'over-supply'... in any case, again, the current price of natural gas reflects upon several conditions... and I touched on a few of the key/principal ones.

[waldo]

your own comment, "NDP voters are the least likely to vote PC under any circumstances", undercuts your position against the impact of strategic voting. In any case, your continued hard-on for Raj Sherman is your self-serving rationale to not accept that strategic voting made a significant difference in the outcome. For what it's worth the polling "experts" seem to be rallying to strategic voting as a key factor in their dismal polling/predictions.

We already know how much your polling experts know by their laughable results. Your faith in them in the face of the facts is touching.

ya see... when someone includes reference to, "For what it's worth"... it may not be worth much, hey? Also, another clue for you: note the "" scary quotes around "experts". As for your labeling the polling experts results, "laughable", more analysis is beginning to line-up around their accuracy... at the time they were taken. Clearly, the Wildrose literally imploded on itself the last week forcing 2 key impacting factors to rise: strategic voting and increased progressive voter turnout.

Here are some more facts for you: NDP % of the popular vote from 2008 to 2012 actually INCREASED in both Edmonton and Calgary. So I guess they did not vote stategically, wouldn't you agree.

yes, I would agree... in line with your earlier statement; the one I quoted, where you say, "NDP voters are the least likely to vote PC under any circumstances"

And here is another fact: the Liberal vote did go to Redford, but it went long before the general election on Monday. The Liberals were in big, big trouble before Sherman became leader, his leadership doomed them. They were fortunate indeed to keep official party status and did it on the basis of a few very solid MLAs getting re-elected. I don't see a way out for them, they have lost it all now. Their base is gone, their MLAs are all elected in spite of being Liberals, not because of it.

no - the Liberal shift in the last week was strategic voting... but it wasn't and wouldn't have been enough to account for the overall result. Your own link to Lougheed's comment/analysis highlights his opinion stating the principal cause of the overall Alberta results reflects upon the return of the Progressive voters within the Progressive Conservatives... those that had not voted for several elections given the antics of Klein/Stelmach. Is a so-called MLW member fellowtraveller, "fact"... one that can't be substantiated, hey?