Canada can do. -----US not so much?

[Smallc]

Actually its not just three cities, we have the 3rd most overvalued realestate market in the world,

That's mostly Vancouver, Victoria, and Toronto skewing the numbers.

combined with large inventories stagnant wages,

Wages have, since the 70s, stayed just above the rate of inflation.

and lower personal savings rates than ever before.

That is troubling, but people still generally have their previous savings. I'm not saving anything right now. Every extra cent I have goes into reducing my debt.

This is a very dangerous set of conditions. It doesnt necessarily mean we WILL have a major economic blow out, but it means we are very vulnerable towards one.

We are definitely vulnerable. Hopefully someone has their finger still on the trigger.

[dre]

That's mostly Vancouver, Victoria, and Toronto skewing the numbers.

Wages have, since the 70s, stayed just above the rate of inflation.

That is troubling, but people still generally have their previous savings. I'm not saving anything right now. Every extra cent I have goes into reducing my debt.

We are definitely vulnerable. Hopefully someone has their finger still on the trigger.

That's mostly Vancouver, Victoria, and Toronto skewing the numbers.

Im not sure about that. Im in a small town on vancouver Island and one of my homes I bought in 2002 is still worth about double what I paid. Even though theres tons of supply... large inventories... and many houses sitting on the market for over a year. Im fairly certain I will lose most of that home equity... and its really figures on a piece of paper that I did nothing to earn anyways.

And that brings up another major problem, with the government using low interest rates to prevent a realestate correction. People are now taking this phony home equity, and they are taking out record ammounts of mortgage credit lines against it. You can see how one bubble feeds another.

Canadians in the relatively near term, are not only going to have to deal with the housing bubble bursting, but a large credit bubble as well.

Theres bright spots as well... we are in a better position than most western countries because we have so many resources we can flog. But that will get harder as well, if theres problems in the global economy. A severe slump would shut down the oil patch completely, and a lot of our other exports as well.

Edited April 13, 2012 by dre

[Smallc]

Im not sure about that. Im in a small town on vancouver Island and one of my homes I bought in 2002 is still worth about double what I paid. Even though theres tons of supply... large inventories... and many houses sitting on the market for over a year. Im fairly certain I will lose most of that home equity... and its really figures on a piece of paper that I did nothing to earn anyways.

We can probably expand the Victoria thing to all of Vancouver island. Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, and a few other places have harly any supply, rental or purchase.

And that brings up another major problem, with the government using low interest rates to prevent a realestate correction. People are now taking this phony home equity, and they are taking out record ammounts of mortgage credit lines against it. You can see how one bubble feeds another.

That is a problem. Hopefully someone will act if it continues.

Canadians in the relatively near term, are not only going to have to deal with the housing bubble bursting, but a large credit bubble as well.

It probably won't be at the levels seen elsewhere. I go to another forum where a few members explained it quite well, but I don't know enough myself.

Theres bright spots as well... we are in a better position than most western countries because we have so many resources we can flog. But that will get harder as well, if theres problems in the global economy. A severe slump would shut down the oil patch completely, and a lot of our other exports as well.

I don't think there would be anything that would completely shutdown oil production in Canada, baring a price drop to under $20. What we may see is a slowdown world wide. Then, it will all be about how each country is doing relatively. We'll still look not bad, assuming that the BC and Toronto housing markets don't drag us down too far.

[dre]

We can probably expand the Victoria thing to all of Vancouver island. Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, and a few other places have harly any supply, rental or purchase.

That is a problem. Hopefully someone will act if it continues.

It probably won't be at the levels seen elsewhere. I go to another forum where a few members explained it quite well, but I don't know enough myself.

I don't think there would be anything that would completely shutdown oil production in Canada, baring a price drop to under $20. What we may see is a slowdown world wide. Then, it will all be about how each country is doing relatively. We'll still look not bad, assuming that the BC and Toronto housing markets don't drag us down too far.

Actually Iv read its not worth it to harvest oil in Fort Mac at anywhere less than 80 dollars, and it doesnt get really profitable until up around 100.

[Smallc]

Actually Iv read its not worth it to harvest oil in Fort Mac at anywhere less than 80 dollars, and it doesnt get really profitable until up around 100.

I think it depends which projects you're talking about. Some of the new technologies are very expensive. Some of the older stuff is going around $20 - 30, IIRC. The Saskatchewan deep drilling and that in North Dakota needs $40 oil. The Shallow drilling in Saskatchewan and Alberta needs about $15.

[dre]

I think it depends which projects you're talking about. Some of the new technologies are very expensive. Some of the older stuff is going around $20 - 30, IIRC. The Saskatchewan deep drilling and that in North Dakota needs $40 oil. The Shallow drilling in Saskatchewan and Alberta needs about $15.

Ahhh yup. Good point. I was thinking oil sands production, definately in spots where conventional drilling works it will be much less.

[Smallc]

Ahhh yup. Good point. I was thinking oil sands production, definately in spots where conventional drilling works it will be much less.

Even some of the oilsands projects are very cheap. The newer technologically driven projects aren't.

[dre]

Hear, hear. The fact is that borders are quietly falling in many meaningful ways.

I disagree completely. Eventually you will see the exact opposite and by that I mean the localization of political power and decision making. This will be driven by regionalism, but also common sense... It's very expensive to government people from afar, and they really dont like it.

Eventually you will see both economic and political localization again. Most things people consume will be produced locally, and I think you will start to see the decentralization of political power simply because centralization is not sustainable, and expensive brutal force is necessary to force it on people.

What you are proposing will never work because people dont want it and they never will. As soon as things start to go a bit sideways you will see regionalization because people will feel like they no longer have meaningfull control. All attempts to implement a one size fits all approach will go the way of the Roman Empire, the British Empire, and the Soviet Union.

We were actually a lot closer to a one world government 2000 years ago than we are now.

[Michael Hardner]

I disagree completely. Eventually you will see the exact opposite and by that I mean the localization of political power and decision making. This will be driven by regionalism, but also common sense... It's very expensive to government people from afar, and they really dont like it.

Regionalism is another way in which national borders fail.

What you are proposing will never work because people dont want it and they never will. As soon as things start to go a bit sideways you will see regionalization because people will feel like they no longer have meaningfull control. All attempts to implement a one size fits all approach will go the way of the Roman Empire, the British Empire, and the Soviet Union.

You're proposing the same thing, though.

We were actually a lot closer to a one world government 2000 years ago than we are now.

And the future one world government will look a lot like 2000 years ago, I suspect.

[fellowtraveller]

Canadians should thank Paul Martin for his monetary policies every day. He probably above all saved our Canuck bacon.

But, Harper's governing financial policies since the economy shit hit the fan have been fiscally sound..well except for the G-8 , G20 etc. cost fiasco.

Oh baloney.

The tight mortgage qualification rules that helped save our bacon are a result of the Bank Act, passed sometime in the 1870s.

Every govt since then has tinkered with the associated regulations, especially since the creation of CMHC as an instrument of social policy in 1946. CMHC is the fed govt vehicle for regulating residential mortgages, in conjunction with the strict controls on bank lending found in the Bank Act.

Paul Martin had nothing to do with it, except in his minor tinkering in quailfication standards via CMHC as does every PM and Finance Minister.

[fellowtraveller]

Even some of the oilsands projects are very cheap. The newer technologically driven projects aren't.

The first oilsands projects had unproven technology and were considered very risky with oil at around $12/barrel, it was far from certain they would ever show a profit..

Syncrude was built in part with cash investments from Ontario, Alberta and Ottawa govts. The portion invested by oil companies was guaranteed, they got their money back plus interest out of operations before they paid a penny in royalties.

Relative to the first couple of developments (GCOS now called Suncor, and Syncrude) the new technologies are much less risky.

Edited April 26, 2012 by fellowtraveller

[PIK]

You seem to have naked contempt for any type of spending restraint what-so-ever... Not suprising because you grew up in the era of limitless money. But that era is drawing to a close, and folks in the west are in for a major wakeup call. This global political class that spends thousands of dollars on hotel rooms, and throws gigantic lavish parties for itself is in for a hell of a wake up call to.

And spending on these things is way down, but you will alway have someone that gets a little greedy.