Polling

cybercoma · March 3, 2012

Nanos!

j44 · March 3, 2012

Nanos!

Lol

Newfoundlander · March 3, 2012

Ekos tends to overestimate Green support and underestimate Conservstive support. They had the Conservstives at 34% on May 1, and the next day they won just under 40%. They were off by about 2 percentage points with the Greens last election and three points in 2008, but between 2008 and 2011 they had the Greens polling in the double digits.

MiddleClassCentrist · March 3, 2012

Ekos tends to overestimate Green support and underestimate Conservstive support. They had the Conservstives at 34% on May 1, and the next day they won just under 40%. They were off by about 2 percentage points with the Greens last election and three points in 2008, but between 2008 and 2011 they had the Greens polling in the double digits.

There's margin of error.

And then there was the fear factor of NDP in Ontario that boosted Conservatives fortunes in the province in final hours.

capricorn · March 3, 2012

And then there was the fear factor of NDP in Ontario that boosted Conservatives fortunes in the province in final hours.

With the NDP now sitting as government-in-waiting, that fear factor will likely blow through the roof come the next election. And not just in Ontario.

Newfoundlander · March 3, 2012

There's margin of error.

And then there was the fear factor of NDP in Ontario that boosted Conservatives fortunes in the province in final hours.

There's a margin of error but Ekos consistently has lower CPC numbers and higher Green numbers.

mentalfloss · March 3, 2012

It wasn't 308.

Sorry, I was just posting in this thread to let people know that if we want to have a monthly review of polls, it should happen sometime in the second week of every month as that is when 308 takes all the polls and puts them all into perspective.

They then do the seat redistribution with support graphs, etc. etc..

CPCFTW · March 4, 2012

This is a pretty good link for a summary of poll results:

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls.php

EKOS almost always has the NDP in a dead heat with the conservatives. Last 4 polls:

2012.03.01: 31.5 CPC, 29.2 NDP. (+1.7)

2011.05.01: 33.9 CPC, 31.2 NDP. (+2.7)

2011.04.30: 34.6 CPC, 31.4 NDP. (+3.2)

2011.04.28: 34.5 CPC, 29.7 NDP. (+4.8)

To be honest, I'm actually quite surprised by how little support the CPC has lost judging by these poll results. The CPC has only been cutting and pushing through controversial bills through the first year of its majority, and there is a negligible dip in support. Still have three years to push that into 40%+ territory (which would likely yield a 200 seat majority with Harper's campaigning... and some timely robocalls ).

Edited March 4, 2012 by CPCFTW

capricorn · March 4, 2012

To be honest, I'm actually quite surprised by how little support the CPC has lost judging by these poll results. The CPC has only been cutting and pushing through controversial bills through the first year of its majority, and there is a negligible dip in support.

Isn't it a fact that governments normally poll badly between elections? Something to do with government, especially a majority, making decisions that will irk any number of voters at any given time between elections.

Evening Star · March 4, 2012

To be honest, I'm actually quite surprised by how little support the CPC has lost judging by these poll results.

The two main opposition parties have interim leaders and significant members of the NDP front bench have been foolishly staying out of the House to focus on an uneventful leadership race. I don't know of anyone who thinks that Turmel has been a great leader. I'm actually surprised how stable their support has been, considering that!

Topaz · March 4, 2012

I think the timmy's and other coffee shops has better polls than the nationals of how people feel about the parties.

Evening Star · March 4, 2012

Isn't it a fact that governments normally poll badly between elections? Something to do with government, especially a majority, making decisions that will irk any number of voters at any given time between elections.

I think his point is that despite that, the CPC hasn't lost too much support.

CPCFTW · March 4, 2012

I think the timmy's and other coffee shops has better polls than the nationals of how people feel about the parties.

Yes we've heard all about your timmy's polls..

cybercoma · March 4, 2012

The two main opposition parties have interim leaders and significant members of the NDP front bench have been foolishly staying out of the House to focus on an uneventful leadership race. I don't know of anyone who thinks that Turmel has been a great leader. I'm actually surprised how stable their support has been, considering that!

Check out the Nanos page for the leadership numbers. Her support was higher than Harper's when she was appointed. I think the leader of the BQ has more support now. She sucks and the leadership vote couldn't come soon enough. Mulcair is going to have work to do rebuilding confidence in the party after he wins.

Newfoundlander · March 5, 2012

A new Nanos poll has the Liberals in second with Conservative support holding steady.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tory-support-steady-despite-robo-call-e-snooping-uproars-poll/article2357747/

Smallc · March 5, 2012

That seems far more plausible.

cybercoma · March 5, 2012

A new Nanos poll has the Liberals in second with Conservative support holding steady.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tory-support-steady-despite-robo-call-e-snooping-uproars-poll/article2357747/

Hardly surprising, given Rae's strong leadership and Turmel being terrible.

UofGPolitico · March 5, 2012

So in less than a year Rae has managed to put the Liberals back up to numbers they had before the election was forced last year. I mean, we are more than 3 yrs away from another vote, but still, I find that interesting and surprising none the less.

cybercoma · March 5, 2012

It will be more interesting to see what happens when the NDP has a real leader.

Newfoundlander · March 5, 2012

It will be more interesting to see what happens when the NDP has a real leader.

Same goes for the Liberals.

Newfoundlander · March 5, 2012

Here's the poll, some interesting results. The NDP are actually up in Quebec in this poll, even though they have a slight drop nationally. The Liberals also lead in Ontario.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/2012-02-BallotE.pdf

UofGPolitico · March 5, 2012

I don't know why they even bother polling Atlantic Canada with such a small sample size. The flucations are always so large. The Conservatives have jumped from 29% to 46% in a month lol.

mentalfloss · March 7, 2012

308 results are in.

Conservative support went down by 2%. NDP and Liberals remained steady in second and third place.

CPC - 33%

NDP - 28%

LIB - 24%

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zeiUSqdvk_o/T1YlsSOim4I/AAAAAAAAHWg/gCD-CgPJbCc/s1600/Monthly+Federal+Polls.PNG

Seat distribution is as follows:

CPC - 133 seats

NDP - 74 seats

LIB - 75 seats

BLOC - 25 seats

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-H_JWt7zN_Uo/T1YoNwsKIUI/AAAAAAAAHWo/az8BHupL7Yw/s1600/2012+February+Seats.PNG

Edited March 7, 2012 by mentalfloss

j44 · March 7, 2012

I don't know why they even bother polling Atlantic Canada with such a small sample size. The flucations are always so large. The Conservatives have jumped from 29% to 46% in a month lol.

I'll admit it. We really have no idea what we are doing here in NS.