punked Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Ok. You are at least consistent in your opinions. The trouble is it is very hard to justify building refining capacity in Alberta because of the distance from market. Especially since those refineries in Houston would be competiting with oil sands refineries and are closer to the markets/have existing pipelines. There is also very high likelyhood that oil sands refinery would be subject to punative duties because this 'CO2 issue' if there is no 'American Jobs' angle to use. China has no interest in refined output from the oil sands. Hell, they would rather put the raw bitumen in rail cars and ship it like coal. We could build the capacity but they would not buy it because they can get raw output from elsewhere. If short, I think believing that all of oil sands output can be refined in Canada is like believing in unicorns and faires. It may make you feel good but it is hardly a basis for a sane economic policy. Give em 10 years and China and the US will be begging for our refined products. You build this pipeline and you can kiss all those jobs good bye for life. We need to stop playing the short game. Boston got rich off of processing NS and NFLD Cod, we could have made that money but instead we stuck with the third world broken model of shipping all our resources and wealth away for a quick payday. We have to stop doing that because someone else gets to bank that wealth. Look at Halifax now compared to Boston we were dumb to do ship our wealth off 100 years ago and we are dumb to do it today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 (edited) Give em 10 years and China and the US will be begging for our refined products. You build this pipeline and you can kiss all those jobs good bye for life.I doubt that. In 10-20 years the transition to natural gas will be well under way since we have so much of the stuff now (they can make plastic from natural gas). In the meantime, if the pipelines do not get built then investment in the oil sands will come to a grinding halt and that guarantees that no refineries will get built (which is what the enviros want anyways). Edited October 2, 2011 by TimG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 I doubt that. In 10-20 years the transition to natural gas will be well under way since we have so much of the stuff now (they can make plastic from natural gas). In the meantime, if the pipelines do not get built then investment in the oil sands will come to a grinding halt and that guarantees that no refineries will get built (which is what the enviros want anyways). Wont happen this is what people say to try and scare people into shipping their jobs away but natural gas is undervalued right now on world markets. It was only 2 years ago it was 4 times the price it is today. Sorry that argument is wrong headed. In fact the catalyst to make plastics from natural gas makes it ultra-expensive to do that process anyway. If a pipeline is not build the oil companies will still be able to make money they will just need to invest in Canada first which is not what they want to do because it is the more expensive option but they will do it and they will bring their jobs here. Again to do not fall into the same trap in the West coast, as the East coast did, the promise of fast cheep money over long term expansion and wealth. It is bad policy that we have already seen fail in Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 (edited) Wont happen this is what people say to try and scare people into shipping their jobs away but natural gas is undervalued right now on world markets.What are you talking about? It is under valued because we have a glut. The price will rise as power stations get built and high oil prices drive conversions to natural gas as a vehicle fuel. The higher the oil price the faster the conversion to natural gas. There will be a new equilibrium but it is unlikely to be so high that Canada can dictate the terms of how the oil sands output is used. Plus you have all of the new oil discoveries coming online from the Bakken formation to the Isreal and Brazil. Sorry that argument is wrong headed. In fact the catalyst to make plastics from natural gas makes it ultra-expensive to do that process anyway.Which is cheaper: a cheap labour plant in China using their massive natural gas reserves or a high labour cost plant in Alberta using the oil sands bitutmen? I think you would be surprised.If a pipeline is not build the oil companies will still be able to make money they will just need to invest in Canada firstOr they will take their money elsewhere. Companies do walk away from resource projects if governments demand too much. The only way Canadian refining capacity would get built is if the government subsidized it. Edited October 2, 2011 by TimG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 What are you talking about? It is under valued because we have a glut. The price will rise as power stations get built and high oil prices drive conversions to natural gas as a vehicle fuel. The higher the oil price the faster the conversion to natural gas. There will be a new equilibrium but it is unlikely to be so high that Canada can dictate the terms of how the oil sands output is used. Plus you have all of the new oil discoveries coming online from the Bakken formation to the Isreal and Brazil. Which is cheaper: a cheap labour plant in China using their massive natural gas reserves or a high labour cost plant in Alberta using the oil sands bitutmen? I think you would be surprised. Or they will take their money elsewhere. Companies do walk away from resource projects if governments demand too much. The only way Canadian refining capacity would get built is if the government subsidized it. Yah I get it scare us out of jobs. Labor costs as mush in Texas as it does in Canada so I aint really scared of China's cheap labor. Sorry your arguments are incoherent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 (edited) Yah I get it scare us out of jobs. Labor costs as mush in Texas as it does in Canada so I aint really scared of China's cheap labor. Sorry your arguments are incoherent.The difference is in Texas they already have built the capacity and they would be competing with any plant built in Alberta. Do you really think a brand new plant in Alberta could complete with those plants in Texas?The only way a new plant in Alberta could compete is if it got it feedstock cheap but that simply means lower royalties for the government and less investment in the oil sands. I am sorry that you find economic reality scary but those are the facts. You would be better off believing in unicorns and fairies. Edited October 2, 2011 by TimG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 The difference is in Texas they already have built the capacity and they would be competing with any plant built in Alberta. Do you really think a brand new plant in Alberta could complete with those plants in Texas? The only way a new plant in Alberta could compete is if it got it feedstock cheap but that simply means lower royalties for the government and less investment in the oil sands. I am sorry that you find economic reality scary but those are the facts. You would be better off believing in unicorns and fairies. THEY ARE BUILDING A PIPELINE. That costs money they might not be able to build as many refineries as they already have in Texas but it sure would be a start if that money was invested in upping Canadian refining capacity. Again as long as they can make money they will. It is just this is cheaper and they can make more money, and really the only people getting the screws are the Canadians who could be doing the work they are exporting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 (edited) THEY ARE BUILDING A PIPELINE. That costs money they might not be able to build as many refineries as they already have in Texas but it sure would be a start if that money was invested in upping Canadian refining capacity.But they ARE investing in Canadian refining capacity ( see http://www.northwestupgrading.com/ ). And if this project succeeds they will build more. If the pipelines do not get built then oil sands investment will drop. Currently viable Canadian companies will go under and/or be bought for pennies on the dollar. Getting the product to market is a prerequisite to developing the oil sands. Edited October 2, 2011 by TimG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 But they ARE investing in Canadian refining capacity ( see http://www.northwestupgrading.com/ ). And if this project succeeds they will build more. If the pipelines do not get built then oil sands investment will drop. Currently viable Canadian companies will go under and/or be bought for pennies on the dollar. Getting the product to market is a prerequisite to developing the oil sands. That just isn't true. The building of this pipeline has been up in the air for a very long time. Yet the oil sands continue to get investment. If you think investment in a limited resources which is making huge profits is going to dry up you are being disingenuous. Investment might dry up if oil dips below 70-75 dollars a barrel because of the all the energy which must go into the extraction process but that is an unrelated matter. Just a few years ago we had a refinery project canceled in NB because Chicago refitted a refinery which took up the processing demand that would have been needed by the New Canadian plant. Building this pipeline is a sure fired way to stop those good jobs from moving to Canada. Oil isn't like Financing or Internet start ups you can't just pill up shop and move somewhere else. It is in the ground and being so you can make demands on industry. We are making the same mistakes Canada has made for 200 years. We are not willing to invest the time it will take to make this country rich we want the cheap quick money instead of the investment which create jobs for years to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Bill Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Yah I get it scare us out of jobs. Labor costs as mush in Texas as it does in Canada so I aint really scared of China's cheap labor. Sorry your arguments are incoherent. Punked, if we refined it here wouldn't we need a pipeline to send the gasoline down south? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Punked, if we refined it here wouldn't we need a pipeline to send the gasoline down south? Sure and once we have the refining capacity to do that we can but not until then. No one is going to build refineries and move jobs to Canada when they have refineries int he states with no oil supply going to the them that could the job. Build this pipeline and lose future jobs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Build this pipeline and lose future jobs.You are assuming that they would get built. If they did get built all you would do is create a bunch of unprofitable refineries that depend on feedstock provided below market. Any jobs gained in refining would be more than offset by the jobs lost in the oil patch. If you want refineries to add value to the economy they must be able to compete in an open market for the oil sands bitumen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Keep having an argument we aren't having please. Just because you want to make this about Environmentalist vs. Economic Expansion doesn't mean it is. I side with Shady on this. The context may differ but there are people who always take an anti-growth tack. One that depends more on abnegatin that advancement.But then again Al Gore's lifestyle ain't bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 I side with Shady on this. The context may differ but there are people who always take an anti-growth tack. One that depends more on abnegatin that advancement. But then again Al Gore's lifestyle ain't bad. You side with Shady because you love to give up good paying Canadian jobs to stick to the environmentalists. your hate for the left outweighs your love for Canada. That is fine but it is bad policy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 You are assuming that they would get built. If they did get built all you would do is create a bunch of unprofitable refineries that depend on feedstock provided below market. Any jobs gained in refining would be more than offset by the jobs lost in the oil patch. If you want refineries to add value to the economy they must be able to compete in an open market for the oil sands bitumen. Again they already re-fitting refineries in the states and stopping refinery openings in Canada. Part of this pipeline is already exporting raw product in to the states and planned refineries in Canada have been taken off the table. It is already happening this will make sure we fallow the same path Canada has always taken in not producing refined products. It is the wrong way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Bill Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 You side with Shady because you love to give up good paying Canadian jobs to stick to the environmentalists. your hate for the left outweighs your love for Canada. That is fine but it is bad policy. Ah punked, jbg is an American! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 2, 2011 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Again they already re-fitting refineries in the states and stopping refinery openings in Canada. Part of this pipeline is already exporting raw product in to the states and planned refineries in Canada have been taken off the table. It is already happening this will make sure we fallow the same path Canada has always taken in not producing refined products. It is the wrong way to go. You've yet to cite any of your absurd assertions. Not to mention that I'm still waiting for you to tell us what jobs are being shipped down south? How about during a bad recession, we let private companies invest in construction and energy projects, and the jobs that will accompany them? Why are you against economic growth and job creation? Not to mention that a stronger American economy helps Canada in the long run anyways. Stop trying to micromanage a large and complex economy. It didn't work for the soviet union, and it won't work for you either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Part of this pipeline is already exporting raw product in to the states and planned refineries in Canada have been taken off the table.Provide a cite to support your claim that refinery projects have been cancelled because of the pipeline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 2, 2011 Report Share Posted October 2, 2011 Provide a cite to support your claim that refinery projects have been cancelled because of the pipeline. They have been canceled because the "market" does support it, while at the same time many refits have been done at the other end of the already existing pipeline to keep demand down on refined products. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 3, 2011 Report Share Posted October 3, 2011 They have been canceled because the "market" does support it, while at the same time many refits have been done at the other end of the already existing pipeline to keep demand down on refined products.Still looking to see a cite. Where are you getting your information from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 3, 2011 Report Share Posted October 3, 2011 Still looking to see a cite. Where are you getting your information from? http://www.petroleum-economist.com/Article/2731549/Refinery-plans-reeling.html Same time the first pipeline was fired up to move 400,000 barrels of oil a day to the US. Hmmmmmm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 3, 2011 Report Share Posted October 3, 2011 (edited) Same time the first pipeline was fired up to move 400,000 barrels of oil a day to the US. Hmmmmmm.They are shutting down US east coast refineries too.http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20110928/BUSINESS/109280304/ConocoPhillips-shut-down-Pa-refinery There is no money to be made building refining capacity on the east coast right now. It has nothing to do with the pipeline. Edited October 3, 2011 by TimG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted October 3, 2011 Report Share Posted October 3, 2011 They are shutting down US east coast refineries too. http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20110928/BUSINESS/109280304/ConocoPhillips-shut-down-Pa-refinery There is no money to be made building refining capacity on the east coast right now. It has nothing to do with the pipeline. We have to think of it as a national strategy if we don't we are screwed. They spent plenty of money to re-fit refineries in Chicago to process this oil while at the same time stopping refineries in Quebec and NB. We would be silly to ship our jobs down a pipe but we will do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted October 4, 2011 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2011 They spent plenty of money to re-fit refineries in Chicago to process this oil while at the same time stopping refineries in Quebec and NB. Who's they? We would be silly to ship our jobs down a pipe but we will do it. Yes, jobs that don't exist. How about instead, you get out of the way of economic growth? Private captial is being put to use to actually build something. Something that will provide jobs, and an economic benefit to Canada, as well as America. If you want a planned out, command and control economy, go to Russia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 4, 2011 Report Share Posted October 4, 2011 (edited) They spent plenty of money to re-fit refineries in Chicago to process this oil while at the same time stopping refineries in Quebec and NB. We would be silly to ship our jobs down a pipe but we will do it.The refineries on the east coast are closing because there is too much capacity and the cost of crude is too high. Providing oil sands bitumen is not going to change those economics because pipelines are expensive. Chicago is in the midwest and already has a pipelines coming from texas, south dakota and alberta. It is also in the center of an area with 40-50 milion people - a market that far exceeds anything that an Alberta refinery could economically access. Edited October 4, 2011 by TimG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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