maplesyrup Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Popular Vote Analysis Canada Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 40.8%, 36.7%, down 4.1% Con: 37.7%, 29.6%, down 8.1% New Dem: 8.5%, 15.7%, up 7.2% Bloc: 10.7%, 12.4%, up 1.7% Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis British Columbia Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 27.7%, 28.6%, up 0.9% Con: 56.7%, 36.2%, down 20.5% New Dem: 11.3%, 26.6%, up 15.3% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Alberta Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 20.9%, 22.0%, up 1.1% Con: 72.4%, 61.6%, down 10.8% New Dem: 5.4%, 9.5%, up 4.1% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Saskatchewan Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 20.7%, 27.2%, up 6.5% Con: 52.5%, 41.8%, down 10.7% New Dem: 26.2%, 23.4%, down 2.8% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Manitoba Party/2000/2004/Change Lib:32.5%, 21.4%, down 11.1% Con: 44.9%, 50.0%, up 5.1% New Dem: 20.9%, 28.6%, up 7.7% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Ontario Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 51.5%, 44.7%, down 6.8% Con: 38.0%, 31.5%, down 6.5% New Dem: 8.3%, 18.1%, up 9.8% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Quebec Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 44.2%, 37.9%, down 6.3% Con: 11.8%, 8.6%, down 3.2% New Dem: 1.8%, 4.6%, up 2.8% Bloc: 39.9%, 48.8%, up 8.9% Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis New Brunswick Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 41.7%, 44.6%, up 2.9% Con: 46.2%, 31.1%, down 15.1% New Dem: 11.7%, 20.6%, up 8. 9% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Nova Scotia Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 36.5%, 39.6%, up 3.1% Con: 38.7%, 28.0%, down 10.7% New Dem: 24.0%, 28.5%, up 4.5% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Prince Edward Island Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 47.0%, 52.5%, up 5.5% Con: 43.4%, 30.7%, down 12.7% New Dem: 9.0%, 12.5%, up 3.5% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Newfoundland and Labrador Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 44.9%, 48.0%, up 3.1% Con: 38.4%, 32.3%, down 6.1% New Dem: 13.1%, 17.5%, up 4.4% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Nunavut Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 69.0%, 51.2%,, down 7.8% Con: 8.1%, 14.5%, up 6.4% New Dem:18.3%, 15.3%, down 3.0% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Western Arctic Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 45.3%, 39.4%, down 5.9% Con: 27.7%, 17.2%, down 10.5% New Dem: 26.9%, 39.1%, up 12.2% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Popular Vote Analysis Yukon Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 32.9%%, 45.9%, up 13% Con: 34.6%, 20.9%, down 13.7% New Dem: 32.1%, 25.4%, down 6.7% Bloc: Grn: CHP Oth: Please let me know if there are any errors. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Seat Count Analysis Seat Count Canada Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 172, 135, down 37 seats Con: 78, 99, up 21 seats New Dem: 13, 19, up 6 seats Seat Count British Columbia Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 5, 8, up 3 Con: 27, 22, down 5 New Dem: 2, 5, up 3 Seat Count Alberta Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 2, 2, no change Con: 24, 26, up 2 Seat Count Saskatchewan Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 2, 1 down 1 Con: 11, 13, up 2 New Dem: 2, 0, down 2 Seat Count Manitoba Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 5, 3, down 2 Con: 5, 7, up 2 New Dem: 4, 4, no change Seat Count Ontario Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 100, 75, down 25 Con: 2, 24, up 22 New Dem: 1, 7, up 6 Seat Count Quebec Party/2000/2004/Change Bloc: 38, 54, up 16 Lib: 36, 21, down 15 Con: 1, 0, down 1 New Dem: Seat Count New Brunswick Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 6, 7, up 1 Con: 3, 2, down 1 New Dem: 1, 1, no change Seat Count Nova Scotia Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 4, 6, up 2 Con: 4, 3, down 1 New Dem: 3, 2, down 1 Seat Count Prince Edward Island Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 4, 4, no change Con: New Dem: Seat Count Newfoundland and Labrador Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 5, 5, no change Con: 2, 2, no change New Dem: Seat Count Nunavut Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 1, 1, no change Con: New Dem: Seat Count Western Arctic Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 1, 1, no change Con: New Dem: Seat Count Yukon Party/2000/2004/Change Lib: 1, 1, no change Con: New Dem: Please let me know if I have made any errors. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Popular vote numbers tell the tale By comparison, the united-right Conservatives won the support of about 30 per cent of voters, compared to the 37.8 per cent who voted for either the Alliance or the Progressive Conservatives in 2000. That's down eight percentage points, though the party earned 99 seats. The New Democratic Party was the big winner of the night in terms of popular vote. Its number rose seven percentage points, to more than 15 per cent in 2004, as it took 19 seats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAC Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Interesting analysis, MS. 1 slip I noted. The Canada seat figures for the NDP got put in as the BC results too. I'm sure you'd love to see the NDP elect 19 in BC, but ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 DAC....thanks for the heads up. I have made the corrections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 New West It's time for these Western separatists to live in the real world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted June 30, 2004 Author Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Has anyone seen this? Student Vote 2004 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Remus Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Has anyone seen this?Student Vote 2004 I find it hard to believe the strength ot the conservatives in the student vote. I had always thought as the polls usually sugest that conservatism is aquired with age. interesting post MS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 In Quebec, 10,000 students voted and in Ontario, 125,000 voted. There were votes in only 38 Quebec ridings. There is a general disinterest in federal politics in Quebec which is even stronger among the young. I'd bet well over half francophone Grade 11 students don't know who the PM of Canada is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2004 Death wish And to the Tory dingbats in the war room claiming Paul Martin supports child pornography, do you teeny tiny Tories figure you're clever this morning? I'm tired of shaking my head at all these rubes and their death wish. It was an election for the Tories to win. And they didn't. In fact, they blew it. The Liberals are at their most vulnerable, they call the election at the wrong time, run a horrible campaign coming out the gate and the Tories still could not take them. The Tories don't even come close. Not even with the help of their strange presumed bedfellows, the left-wing separatist Bloc. This is the best political analysis on the Tory's defeat coming out of the West that I have seen since the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted July 1, 2004 Report Share Posted July 1, 2004 These are the two I liked: I know Big L doesn't always treat me as well as he should. He takes me for granted, knowing I'm always there to support him, whatever his faults. Linda Someone in Toronto Sun "With me, it was Harper," said her husband. "The guy scared me. He gave you the feeling he was up to something he didn't want you to know about." Earl Macrae in Ottawa Sun I can understand why federalists in Quebec voted Liberal and why people in the Maritimes voted Liberal. But I'm still confused about Ontario and BC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 1, 2004 I don't think the Tory problems had much to do with the Liberal attack ads. What's this big deal about attack ads anyways, the Tories ran them as well. I think where Harper ran into trouble is when he was asked about abortion rights for women. Instead of being clear, he tried to fudge it, and he blew the campaign right there in my opinion. Abortion is something we have dealt with in Canada quite awile ago. To have brought it into play during the election campaign the way Harper did, was a major blunder, from which he really never recovered. Add that to sexual exploitation of children issue, and he was toast. We all know he loves the US, but this was a Canadian election campaign. Maybe he forgot that, who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 11, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2004 Ipsos-Reid's credibility, or lack thereof. Date-------------Pop Vote-----Actual Vote Jun 28 (vote)-------------------4% Jun 25----------6% Jun 22----------6% Jun 19----------7% Jun 15----------6% Jun 10----------7% Jun 05----------6% So first of all, let's look at the actual results for the Green Party, compared to Ipsos-Reid's last poll before the actual election was off (down) by a staggering 50% which confirms my hunch about Ipsos-Reid's credibility And what did Ipsos-Reid say on June 5th? Of note, the seat projection model is now pointing to the potential of two Green Party seats in British Columbia. Now what is one supposed to assume when one sees a statement like this, eh? slavik44.........cut the mumbo-jumbo, and just out of curiousity, which seats were Ipsos-Reid suggesting the Greens might win? It couldn't have been Saanich-Gulf Islands, as pretty well anyone in BC who knows anything about politics knew that the Greens were not even in the running in that seat - that they were going to finish last, well maybe ahead of the Communist candidate. What kind of game was Ipsos-Reid playing, eh? If a federal election were held tomorrow, Paul Martin and the Liberal Party would garner 32% of the decided vote (down 2 points) while Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party would attract the support of 31% of decided voters (up 1 point). Meanwhile, Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party (17%, up 1 point) and Jim Harris and the Green Party (6%, unchanged) hold steady in the national polls, while 3% of decided voters would cast their support for some “other” party. Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois have 11% of the national decided vote -- in the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attracts 45% of decided votes (up 1 point), leading the Liberals (28%, down 1 point) by 17 points in this province Look at the wording that is highlighted. Unbiased my ass! :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted July 11, 2004 Report Share Posted July 11, 2004 The Green result is within the margin of error. But MS, the last few days of the campaign saw an orgy of negative ads by the Liberals. The ads' basic point was that if the Tories won, the sky would fall in (Canada would join the US, the economy would implode, the Christian right would takover, etc. etc.) As a result, ALL parties saw their vote numbers drop a little except the Liberals. (I suspect the bulk of the change was in Ontario, particularly among women.) This explains why many of the polls were wrong. Your party, the NDP, probably suffered the most. It might have had the balance of power. Incidentally, I do not think these past elections have been healthy for Canada. Warren Kinsella says rightly that attack ads work. They do. But if Canada is going to exist, it must be an oeuvre of idealism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 11, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2004 The Green result is within the margin of error.But MS, the last few days of the campaign saw an orgy of negative ads by the Liberals. The ads' basic point was that if the Tories won, the sky would fall in (Canada would join the US, the economy would implode, the Christian right would takover, etc. etc.) As a result, ALL parties saw their vote numbers drop a little except the Liberals. (I suspect the bulk of the change was in Ontario, particularly among women.) This explains why many of the polls were wrong. Your party, the NDP, probably suffered the most. It might have had the balance of power. Incidentally, I do not think these past elections have been healthy for Canada. Warren Kinsella says rightly that attack ads work. They do. But if Canada is going to exist, it must be an oeuvre of idealism. So what if they are within the margin of error when you are out by 50%. When their polls are publicized the margin of error gets short shrift in most media coverage. Ipsos-Reid did everything in their power to belittle or discredit NDP strength. Ipsos-Reid polled the NDP at 14% in BC during the campaign. August1991.....even you were buying into it. Just read the wording in any of their press releases. I quoted one above which was blantantly biased against the NDP. Ipsos-Reid are a joke and should be held up to ridicule. Angus Reid has already said that the non-response rate went from 60% to 80% i believe while he was involved in polling. He suggests now it may be closer to 90%. Polling the way Ipsos-Reid works does not have much of a future. Their polling was done or used to manipulate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted July 11, 2004 Report Share Posted July 11, 2004 On second thought, the final result for the Green Party is not within the margin of error, and I don't think the "polls" were the "1 poll in 20" that's wrong. And, unlike you, I don't think Ispsos-Reid played around with the numbers to make the Greens look stronger at the expense of those evil NDP. Rather, the Liberal attack ads really kicked in at the end and many people who previously intended to vote Green got scared and voted Liberal. PM PM owes Herle big time for pulling this one out of the fire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 11, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2004 Validated Results by the Returning Officer Validation Date: June 30, 2004 38th General Election Saanich—Gulf Islands British Columbia Electoral District No. 59024 Valid ballots: 63,771 Rejected ballots: 159 Total ballots cast: 63,930 Candidate Party Votes Jennifer Burgis New Democratic Party 13,763 Andrew Lewis Green Party of Canada 10,662 Gary Lunn Conservative Party of Canada 22,050 Mary Moreau Independent 214 David Mulroney Liberal Party of Canada 17,082 Total number of validated votes: 63,771 The Green Party candidate came in fourth, 52% behind the winner's tally, 17% of the total votes cast in the riding, and would have been last, if it were not for an Independent candidate who had 214 votes slavik44/august1991........which seats were the Greens supposed to have a shot at, according to Ipsos-Reid in BC? Your silence is deafening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 12, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 12, 2004 Martin's Liberals are limping in B.C. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 14, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2004 How the race was won True, many Canadians did not like Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and were concerned about the possibility of his becoming prime minister. Close to half those interviewed agreed with the statement that "Stephen Harper is just too extreme." But this perception was there from the beginning of the campaign, and Mr. Harper's overall ratings were no worse than those of Paul Martin. And despite the very personal nature of the final attack ad, Mr. Harper's ratings did not go down in the last days of the campaign.Similarly, there were certainly some Canadians who perceived the Conservative Party to be just too extreme: about 10 per cent in our survey. Around 30 per cent saw hardly any difference, or no difference at all, between the new Conservative Party and the former Alliance Party, and just over 40 per cent agreed with the statement that "The Conservative Party is a threat to Canada's social programs." But these figures remained quite stable throughout the campaign, and they did not increase in the last days. Interesting analysis - not the usual blather we got from the media pundits or pollsters like Ipsos-Reid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 15, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2004 Oh, Canada! (191) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 17, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2004 NDP seeks a shortcut for better results at the polls Interesting analysis - what is the future for the Green party, among other things? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
udawg Posted July 18, 2004 Report Share Posted July 18, 2004 Interesting how the votes were distributed differently this time... Conservatives were down 10% in popular votes across the country... and still managed to substantially increase their number of seats. As for the student vote, many young people (at least in my area) are utterly disgusted with the corruption in the Liberal government. Not to mention, being an agricultural area of Saskatchewan, nobody around here is laughing at the lack of action by the federal government to help farmers hurt by BSE and (continued) American subsidies. And of course, there's the gun registry. Which everyone here hated, even before it cost several billion dollars. But mostly, it's the corruption that really caught the attention of teenagers around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted July 18, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2004 The US farmers are laughing all the way to the bank. How is the cattle industy regulated? Is it impacted in any way by our trade agreements, such as Expensive (Free) Trade Agreement, NAFTA, etc. It is a waste of time to just whine. If there is a complaint about the feds: 1 what specifically is the complaint based on, which unfair practice, which trade agreement has jurisdiction, etc.? 2 what is the proposed solution, that the feds are not already doing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caesar Posted July 18, 2004 Report Share Posted July 18, 2004 udawg; re; BSE I do believe that the Federal government did provide funding for BSE. Unfortunately, in Alberta that money seemed to go to the big meat packing plants (many American owned) and not to the farmers. Our fishing industry and logging industries in BC never get subsidized by the Federal government. Only, farmers with cattle that were destroyed by government sources without any signs of BSE should be compansated. Small farmers who could not afford crop insurance should have been offered long term loans with no interest. Why did the industry not stop this dubious practice of feeding animal parts to herbivores long ago. This industry should be fighting back; not the federal government. The USA is being unreasonable. Why would you support Harper who would sell us out to that country. Until the USA resumes fair trading practices; we should look elsewhere for trading partners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAC Posted July 19, 2004 Report Share Posted July 19, 2004 Interesting how the votes were distributed differently this time... Conservatives were down 10% in popular votes across the country... and still managed to substantially increase their number of seats. Of course. This time they weren't splitting their vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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