Realistically, how big a majority could Layton get?

TTM · April 29, 2011

and polling seems to indicate the Greens(May) will win a seat from the conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn....

There are rumours of the Greens possibly winning Vancouver Centre as well. I don't know how credible they are, but this article is interesting:

http://www.commonground.ca/iss/238/cg238_Fry.shtml

Harry · April 29, 2011

Looking mighty fine in BC for Mr Jack Layton

Roadmap to May 2: British Columbia

Things have moved so fast during this election, that I've started and tossed more blogposts than usual. But time to put my own list of ridings in play to paper before it's too late.

In doing so, I have tried my best to avoid looking at the many other lists out there, for fear of contaminating my own perceptions. I did answer Calgary Grit's questionnaire in a timestamped textfile that's been sitting on my hard-drive for a few weeks. At the time I had a higher NDP seat count than any of the other contestants, but one that now seems low by many standards.

Still, as any regular reader would know by now, I favour the qualitative approach to calling individual seats when the numbers alone won"t do the job, and in this election they clearly won't. That does leave things open to greater influence of the heart than head, but that's the risk we all take on E-minus-4, isn't it.

Anyway, that being said, I'll forge ahead with my look at the races to watch, starting out west.

Strong contested races:

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/roadmap-to-may-2-british-columbia/

yarg · April 30, 2011

Looking mighty fine in BC for Mr Jack Layton

Roadmap to May 2: British Columbia

Things have moved so fast during this election, that I've started and tossed more blogposts than usual. But time to put my own list of ridings in play to paper before it's too late.

In doing so, I have tried my best to avoid looking at the many other lists out there, for fear of contaminating my own perceptions. I did answer Calgary Grit's questionnaire in a timestamped textfile that's been sitting on my hard-drive for a few weeks. At the time I had a higher NDP seat count than any of the other contestants, but one that now seems low by many standards.

Still, as any regular reader would know by now, I favour the qualitative approach to calling individual seats when the numbers alone won"t do the job, and in this election they clearly won't. That does leave things open to greater influence of the heart than head, but that's the risk we all take on E-minus-4, isn't it.

Anyway, that being said, I'll forge ahead with my look at the races to watch, starting out west.

Strong contested races:

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/roadmap-to-may-2-british-columbia/

They are missing your spam on Rabble North Report, strange how you're ashamed to use the same name here.

Harry · April 30, 2011

Things are just getting better and better for the NDP, now only 4% out of first place.

Le NPD gonflé à bloc

Le Québec voit orange. À quelques heures d'un scrutin qui s'annonce historique, le NDP récolte l'appui de presque un électeur québécois sur deux, loin devant le Bloc québécois qui régnait pourtant en maître dans la province depuis 1993.

Les Québécois s'apprêtent donc à prendre un virage important aux élections fédérales de lundi, lesquelles modifieront considérablement la donne politique non seulement au Québec, mais dans l'ensemble du pays.

Un dernier coup de sonde avant le jour du vote réalisé par la firme Angus Reid pour le compte de La Presse et du Toronto Star confirme donc que le NPD a le vent dans les voiles.

Ce coup de sonde donne aux troupes néo-démocrates de Jack Layton 45% des appuis au Québec, contre 26 % au Bloc québécois, 16% au Parti libéral et 13% au Parti conservateur. Depuis le début de la campagne, les appuis au NPD ont donc plus que doublé.

À l'échelle du pays, le Parti conservateur se maintient en tête avec 37% des intentions de vote, une hausse de deux points de pourcentage par rapport au dernier sondage mené il y a 10 jours. Le NPD voit ses appuis bondir de trois points pour se fixer à 33%. Le Parti libéral encaisse le coup. Ses appuis, qui étaient à 22%, tombent sous la barre des 20% pour la première fois de son histoire et sont maintenant à 19%.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/29/01-4394847-le-npd-gonfle-a-bloc.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS1

Harry · April 30, 2011

Ontario and BC, eh! Amazin' surge by the orange team.

Layton’s gains in Ontario and B.C. narrow Harper’s lead to five points

With only three crucial campaigning days left, Jack Layton and the NDP continue to close the gap on the Conservatives, narrowing Stephen Harper’s advantage now in key battlegrounds of Ontario and British Columbia, according to the latest Nanos Research survey.

Given the slim five-point lead for the Conservatives nationally, the NDP and Liberals could win more seats combined than the Tories on May 2 with a “rump” separatist party holding the balance of power, pollster Nik Nanos says.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/laytons-gains-in-ontario-and-bc-narrow-harpers-lead-to-five-points/article2003488/

Harry · April 30, 2011

An Amway meeting. Quite pathetic really.

Ballroom dancing on Harper's Economic Scare Tactics Express

Things are going well thanks to his own vigilance, Mr. Harper assured the gathering (no nod was given to our good position going into the recession, nor to our resource-based economy). But the economy is on a hair trigger. It could blow at any moment.

The guy's nothing if not on-message. But as Jack Layton's cheery, concerned NDP climbed in the polls, it struck me that the Tory scaremongering of this campaign might backfire: Sometimes, when faced with dismal economic times, people turn to a party that promises security.

For a party that hopes to govern on one issue, the economy, the Conservatives have been as sketchy on details as the other parties. When questioned by Paul Wells of Maclean's about billions of dollars in budget cuts that were announced in the Conservatives' ill-fated 2011 budget but never explained (still more money magically appeared in their election platform), Finance Minster Jim Flaherty tried to sound excited about the savings to be had were the government to start using direct deposit for employment-insurance cheques.

Really, that's Canada's great untapped resource? Direct deposit? That better not be Stage 3.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/tabatha-southey/ballroom-dancing-on-the-economic-scare-tactics-express/article2004406/

Edited April 30, 2011 by Harry

Harry · April 30, 2011

Here's the English version

NDP support continues to climb, poll shows

Jack Layton continues to surge in popularity among voters, giving his New Democrats vital momentum going into Monday’s election, largely at the expense of the Liberals, a new poll reveals.

The NDP are at 33 per cent support nationwide, up three percentage points in recent days and just four points back from the Conservatives who are at 37 per cent, up two, according to the latest Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse.

The Liberals have dropped by three percentage points this week to 19 per cent. That’s where the NDP stood at the start of the campaign, illustrating the stunning turn in fortunes for both parties. The Green Party is up one percentage point to 4 per cent.

The growth of the NDP’s popularity has shown little signs of ebbing, Mukerji said.

“There was a lot of discussion that it might be peak, it might crest. It seems like it’s gaining some momentum,” he said.

While surprising now, the roots of the NDP surge were evident before the election in polls that showed Layton was popular with voters.

“There was a large number of Canadians who were not enthralled with the prospect of a Tory majority. And you had a Liberal leader who was deeply unpopular, who hadn’t even really assured his own base, and you had an NDP leader who was very popular,” Mukerji said in an interview Friday.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/983246--ndp-support-continues-to-climb-poll-shows

Harry · April 30, 2011

Why is everybody so surprised?

Jack Layton’s amazing race

How Layton turned an also-ran NDP party into an organized and aggressive operation

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/29/jacks-amazing-race/

mikedavid00 · April 30, 2011

How Layton turned an also-ran NDP party into an organized and aggressive operation

He must have taken pointers from the massage parlors he used to frequent (as his wife factually confirms).

Now we know why they call him 'Jack'. A 'Smiling Jack'.. heheh... that must have a been an item on the menu. HAHAHA!!

BubberMiley · April 30, 2011

I think this massage parlor story might be just enough to send them over the top. Could you please start another thread about it?

Harry · April 30, 2011

I think this massage parlor story might be just enough to send them over the top. Could you please start another thread about it?

Exactly what the doctor ordered for the NDP - keep it up folks. :rolleyes:

Edited April 30, 2011 by Harry

Harry · May 1, 2011

Things just keep looking better and better for the NDP with each passing hour.

Roadmap to May 2: The Prairies

Continuing our look at the contests to watch out for in local ridings, we move eastward to the three prairie provinces, which are seeing less an orange wave than merely several outbreaks of orange brushfires.

Again, I've avoided looking at others' lists in order to keep my own perceptions untainted, though I'll be studying them all later to see if I missed anything.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/roadmap-to-may-2-the-prairies/

Harry · May 1, 2011

Panic stricken and desperate Harper is now making a fool of himself by begging for Liberal votes.

Harper's behaviour is just pitiful. So long sucker.

Harper has to know when he is being ridiculed he is toast. Done like dinner. Canadians will be awakening to a wonderful new era on Tuesday morning.

Harper pleads with Liberal supporters to vote Tory to stop NDP

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/983413--harper-pleads-with-liberal-supporters-to-vote-tory-to-stop-ndp?bn=1

Mr.Canada · May 1, 2011

Panic stricken and desperate Harper is now making a fool of himself by begging for Liberal votes.

Harper's behaviour is just pitiful. So long sucker.

Harper has to know when he is being ridiculed he is toast. Done like dinner. Canadians will be awakening to a wonderful new era on Tuesday morning.

Harper pleads with Liberal supporters to vote Tory to stop NDP

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/983413--harper-pleads-with-liberal-supporters-to-vote-tory-to-stop-ndp?bn=1

Will you still support PM Layton when our taxes consume 50% of our paychecks?

BubberMiley · May 1, 2011

Will you still support PM Layton when our taxes consume 50% of our paychecks?

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. I like that.

Hydraboss · May 1, 2011

Panic stricken and desperate Harper is now making a fool of himself by begging for Liberal votes.

Harper's behaviour is just pitiful. So long sucker.

Harper has to know when he is being ridiculed he is toast. Done like dinner. Canadians will be awakening to a wonderful new era on Tuesday morning.

Harper pleads with Liberal supporters to vote Tory to stop NDP

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/983413--harper-pleads-with-liberal-supporters-to-vote-tory-to-stop-ndp?bn=1

Jesus Harry. You really are nothing but a spam-bot, are you? For christ sake, give this shit a rest already. This thread is a joke, your posting of NDP-blogger polls are meaningless, and you're just really fucking annoying. Either start having real conversations where you actually add something of value (doesn't matter if people like it or not) or shut the fuck up.

I can hardly wait until this election is over so you rabble idiots go away (until the next election).

BubberMiley · May 1, 2011

I can hardly wait until this election is over so you rabble idiots go away (until the next election).

Yes. Then we'll be back to just quality Mr. Canada and Shady posts again.

Edited May 1, 2011 by BubberMiley

Hydraboss · May 1, 2011

Yes. Then we'll be back to just quality Mr. Canada and Shady posts again.

Thanks. I was having a not bad evening till you screwed it up.

Harry · May 1, 2011

Shoe is on the other foot now, and Canadians will actually decide who they like, and obviously the Cons have failed miserably in their attempt for a majority, and probably for a minority as well. Too bad, but that's what happens when you try to push policies on Canadians that they don't want. What are the Cons actually going to get this election 30%, 32% maybe 34%.

Who knew!

Edited May 1, 2011 by Harry

Harry · May 1, 2011

Moving in for the slaughter. Bye, bye Harper.

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/projections.php

jbg · May 1, 2011

Things are just getting better and better for the NDP, now only 4% out of first place.

I expect their support to take the dip and dive path. Edited May 1, 2011 by jbg

Harry · May 1, 2011

I expect their support to take the dip and dive path.

Right, that's why the NDP crowds are growing and growing with each passing minute. But contine with your silliness by all means.

Layton greeted by large crowd, dismisses allegation

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/Layton+greeted+large+crowd+dismisses+allegation/4704538/story.html

Harry · May 1, 2011

Wakie, wakie, Harper, Canadians want another kind of government.

How clueless can a prime minister be.

Harper admits 'surprise' at NDP surge in polls

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/Harper+admits+surprise+surge+polls/4704963/story.html

CANADIEN · May 1, 2011

Wakie, wakie, Harper, Canadians want another kind of government.

How clueless can a prime minister be.

Harper admits 'surprise' at NDP surge in polls

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/Harper+admits+surprise+surge+polls/4704963/story.html

Anyone who claims they knew before the start of the campaign that the NDP would poll at 40% in Quebec and 30% country-wide is a liar.

Harry · May 1, 2011

Oops. Another bad day, in a series of bad days for Harper.

Harper's NDP warning doesn't include Doer

However Mr. Harper was so fond of former Manitoba Premier Gary Doer that he appointed the New Democrat public office-holder to be Canadas ambassador to the United States in 2009.

Gary Doers accomplished track record of leadership in Manitoba speaks for itself, Mr. Harper said at the time. He has the right combination of experience, leadership and diplomatic qualities to serve as Canadas next Ambassador to the United States.

Asked about whether his criticisms of the NDP record include Mr. Doers time in office or former Saskatchewan premier Roy Romanow, the Conservative Leader said no

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/harpers-ndp-warning-doesnt-include-doer/article2005353/

Edited May 1, 2011 by Harry