Fear and Loathing on the Rideau

[fellowtraveller]

May 3 could see a number of different outcomes in the House of Commons, with a majority govt looking unlikely now. I also think there is very little chance that a Tory minority will last more than a month or two at most. The Cooperative will take the reins at their earliest convenience.

Even if they don't, the tone in Ottawa is going to be more of the same: angry, bitter, fractious and ineffective government.

But there will be one change- the grim mood is going to spread and settle outside Ottawa. The last few decades have seen the rise of regionalism with all its atendant grief, and this cannot help but be enhanced with more years of uncertainty ahead. None of these assclowns acting as leader of a coalition or a minority- Ignatieff, Layton, Harper or Duceppe- has any ability to calm the waters and laad us as a nation into some semblance of economic stability for the next few years in these circumstances. It is uncertain that any of them could do it with a majority.

I'm increasingly pessimistic that our politcal and hence economic fortunes look at all promising, despite our current enviable position among developed countries. And we will have only ourselves to blame.

Oh, and while we fiddle as Rome burns, the perfect storm is being created for Monsieur Duceppe and Madame Marois. We'll have that freakshow to look forward to, coming to your wallet soon.

[August1991]

I also think there is very little chance that a Tory minority will last more than a month or two at most. The Cooperative will take the reins at their earliest convenience.

Even if they don't, the tone in Ottawa is going to be more of the same: angry, bitter, fractious and ineffective government.

I disagree. I don't see the Liberals propping up an NDP government. That means that the Liberals will support a reined in minority Harper government for at least a year.

The last few decades have seen the rise of regionalism with all its atendant grief, and this cannot help but be enhanced with more years of uncertainty ahead.

There is nothing new about regionalism in Canada. In the first parliament in 1867, the Nova Scotia MPs arrived in Ottawa with the sole purpose of getting out of Confederation.

Oh, and while we fiddle as Rome burns, the perfect storm is being created for Monsieur Duceppe and Madame Marois. We'll have that freakshow to look forward to, coming to your wallet soon.

I don't think this Quebec flirtation with the NDP will last. (Duceppe referred to it yesterday as a "one night stand".) However, it shows that many Quebecers are looking for a way out of this National Question impasse. The PQ may form the next government in Quebec but it will only be due to the unpopularity of Charest and it won't be able to hold a meaningful referendum.

[nittanylionstorm07]

May 3 could see a number of different outcomes in the House of Commons, with a majority govt looking unlikely now. I also think there is very little chance that a Tory minority will last more than a month or two at most. The Cooperative will take the reins at their earliest convenience.

Even if they don't, the tone in Ottawa is going to be more of the same: angry, bitter, fractious and ineffective government.

But there will be one change- the grim mood is going to spread and settle outside Ottawa. The last few decades have seen the rise of regionalism with all its atendant grief, and this cannot help but be enhanced with more years of uncertainty ahead. None of these assclowns acting as leader of a coalition or a minority- Ignatieff, Layton, Harper or Duceppe- has any ability to calm the waters and laad us as a nation into some semblance of economic stability for the next few years in these circumstances. It is uncertain that any of them could do it with a majority.

I'm increasingly pessimistic that our politcal and hence economic fortunes look at all promising, despite our current enviable position among developed countries. And we will have only ourselves to blame.

Oh, and while we fiddle as Rome burns, the perfect storm is being created for Monsieur Duceppe and Madame Marois. We'll have that freakshow to look forward to, coming to your wallet soon.

This entire rant sounds like you are just bitter that your side is going to lose.

I disagree. I don't see the Liberals propping up an NDP government. That means that the Liberals will support a reined in minority Harper government for at least a year.

There is nothing new about regionalism in Canada. In the first parliament in 1867, the Nova Scotia MPs arrived in Ottawa with the sole purpose of getting out of Confederation.

I don't think this Quebec flirtation with the NDP will last. (Duceppe referred to it yesterday as a "one night stand".) However, it shows that many Quebecers are looking for a way out of this National Question impasse. The PQ may form the next government in Quebec but it will only be due to the unpopularity of Charest and it won't be able to hold a meaningful referendum.

Don't be so sure on that last part. The NDP has the most ideal platform for Quebecers.... liberal, left-wing, environmentalist, supporting arts/education, etc. etc. This is easily something that can stick, especially if the NDP starts to try to redevelop its provincial party there. If that happens, the PQ needs to watch out.

[Keepitsimple]

This entire rant sounds like you are just bitter that your side is going to lose.

Don't be so sure on that last part. The NDP has the most ideal platform for Quebecers.... liberal, left-wing, environmentalist, supporting arts/education, etc. etc. This is easily something that can stick, especially if the NDP starts to try to redevelop its provincial party there. If that happens, the PQ needs to watch out.

Either way, this is good news for Canada. If they are not "flirting" with the NDP, then they are flirting with Federalism. Go Jack, Go.

[ToadBrother]

I disagree. I don't see the Liberals propping up an NDP government. That means that the Liberals will support a reined in minority Harper government for at least a year.

The very question could be extraordinarily divisive among Liberals. The centrists will more naturally flow towards keeping the Tory government afloat, but the more left-leaning Liberals will view that as a deal with the Devil himself. I sure wouldn't want to be the guy that has to try to keep this all together.

I don't think this Quebec flirtation with the NDP will last. (Duceppe referred to it yesterday as a "one night stand".) However, it shows that many Quebecers are looking for a way out of this National Question impasse. The PQ may form the next government in Quebec but it will only be due to the unpopularity of Charest and it won't be able to hold a meaningful referendum.

All we can say for sure is that the NDP will make inroads today. Whether they last or not is greatly dependent on so many factors that I don't care to try to predict it. If the NDP can occupy the position the Liberals traditionally did, the upswing may have permanent results, particularly if the Liberals can't find a way back up the mountain.

I think you're spot on about any referendum. I cannot see the PQ trying it now. Layton has done a rather clever trick, promising to look at the Constitution, but not committing to a timeline.

It just goes to show you that the NDP has some damned clever strategists, who have out-thought their opponents at every turn. Even if Iggy drops dead in a year or two, he'll leave behind an effective war room.

[fellowtraveller]

I disagree. I don't see the Liberals propping up an NDP government. That means that the Liberals will support a reined in minority Harper government for at least a year.

??? That is just one of the failures ahead, more likely is still a Cooperative led by Ignatieff. How will that play out for everybody except Quebec? Pretend that you care for the ROC just this once.

There is nothing new about regionalism in Canada. In the first parliament in 1867, the Nova Scotia MPs arrived in Ottawa with the sole purpose of getting out of Confederation.

More reading comprehension problems.....I did not say regionalism is new, but there is no doubt it is expanding in scope, power and command of our political fortunes.

The PQ may form the next government in Quebec but it will only be due to the unpopularity of Charest and it won't be able to hold a meaningful referendum.

You continually seek to misdirect, you play a shell game here every day. If Marois is elected, that means she is more popular than Charest. She won't win by default, and the central reason for life of the PQ and the Bloc is to separate. They have already both spoken publicly on what is to come. Why do you pretend otherwise? It doesn't really matter, but I am curious.

This entire rant sounds like you are just bitter that your side is going to lose.

Sadly, you have failed to understand anything I have written. I'll recap for you: we are all about to lose, not me. We'll lose a lot of time and a lot of money, at a time in our history where we can ill afford either. Do you see circumstances where Harper, Layton, Ignatieff and Duceppe can work collaboratively and for the collective good of our country after what will surely unfold soon?

I acknowledge that Harper won't win, I acknowledge that Ignatieff will form a coalition with the other parties. In my opinion, that will be the calmest point of the next few years, becuase the price that Canada will pay to Duceppe will be large, both i terms of dollars and in terms of increased Quebec influence. It can't be any other way, Ducppe/Bloc will not support anybody for free. I don't think that anything will get accomplished that will benefit the country as a whole. I see outcomes that will be really expensive. And Ignatieff/Layton will have to go along, they've both been telling us for ages how they're willing to do whatever it takes to govern. Either they are both liars, or they are not and we pay.

t

[wyly]

I think you're spot on about any referendum. I cannot see the PQ trying it now. Layton has done a rather clever trick, promising to look at the Constitution, but not committing to a timeline.

I could be wrong but I think we're looking at whole new generations of quebecers that don't want a referendum they prefer to stay in Canada we need only accommodate their cultural desires and recognize they are different than the rest of canada...the NDP is a federalist version of the bloc and that works for them socially...

[nittanylionstorm07]

Sadly, you have failed to understand anything I have written. I'll recap for you: we are all about to lose, not me. We'll lose a lot of time and a lot of money, at a time in our history where we can ill afford either. Do you see circumstances where Harper, Layton, Ignatieff and Duceppe can work collaboratively and for the collective good of our country after what will surely unfold soon?

I acknowledge that Harper won't win, I acknowledge that Ignatieff will form a coalition with the other parties. In my opinion, that will be the calmest point of the next few years, becuase the price that Canada will pay to Duceppe will be large, both i terms of dollars and in terms of increased Quebec influence. It can't be any other way, Ducppe/Bloc will not support anybody for free. I don't think that anything will get accomplished that will benefit the country as a whole. I see outcomes that will be really expensive. And Ignatieff/Layton will have to go along, they've both been telling us for ages how they're willing to do whatever it takes to govern. Either they are both liars, or they are not and we pay.

t

Sadly, it's clear you don't understand what is happening in Canada right now.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I could be wrong but I think we're looking at whole new generations of quebecers that don't want a referendum they prefer to stay in Canada we need only accommodate their cultural desires and recognize they are different than the rest of canada...the NDP is a federalist version of the bloc and that works for them socially...

Yeah, the youth in Quebec are smarter than their parents' and grandparents' generations. The Bloc's general refusal to participate well in social networking too (I listened to this on CBC Radio 1 yesterday) isn't helping.

The youth are driving the future for Quebec, and it's looking quite grim for the Bloc and Parti.

[ToadBrother]

I could be wrong but I think we're looking at whole new generations of quebecers that don't want a referendum they prefer to stay in Canada we need only accommodate their cultural desires and recognize they are different than the rest of canada...the NDP is a federalist version of the bloc and that works for them socially...

As the French say; vive la différence! I think you are right, at least to the degree that there are a lot more soft nationalists now than there were fifteen years ago. I still think a good deal of caution should be taken in proceeding with any constitutional talks, not just because of Quebec, but because such talks are divisive in the rest of Canada too. Mulroney's attempts showed just how polarizing this can all be.

[PIK]

I disagree. I don't see the Liberals propping up an NDP government. That means that the Liberals will support a reined in minority Harper government for at least a year.

There is nothing new about regionalism in Canada. In the first parliament in 1867, the Nova Scotia MPs arrived in Ottawa with the sole purpose of getting out of Confederation.

I don't think this Quebec flirtation with the NDP will last. (Duceppe referred to it yesterday as a "one night stand".) However, it shows that many Quebecers are looking for a way out of this National Question impasse. The PQ may form the next government in Quebec but it will only be due to the unpopularity of Charest and it won't be able to hold a meaningful referendum.

bILL 101 is the key factor, for 20 years duceppe has been trying to get that strengthen and he just could not get it done, but with jack at the helm he will get it done, be very careful what you people wish for, jack is going to be a very dangerous man.

[ToadBrother]

bILL 101 is the key factor, for 20 years duceppe has been trying to get that strengthen and he just could not get it done, but with jack at the helm he will get it done, be very careful what you people wish for, jack is going to be a very dangerous man.

Bill 101 is not going anywhere, no matter who is running the show in Ottawa.

[wyly]

As the French say; vive la différence! I think you are right, at least to the degree that there are a lot more soft nationalists now than there were fifteen years ago. I still think a good deal of caution should be taken in proceeding with any constitutional talks, not just because of Quebec, but because such talks are divisive in the rest of Canada too. Mulroney's attempts showed just how polarizing this can all be.

which is what Layton suggested, the conditions need to be right...both sides need to be consulted and there needs to be a high likelyhood of success before it is attempted...

[ToadBrother]

which is what Layton suggested, the conditions need to be right...both sides need to be consulted and there needs to be a high likelyhood of success before it is attempted...

There certainly was no lack of consultation, particularly around Charlottetown (remember Joe Clark running fiercely around the country). The problem always is that the Powers-that-be, whether Federal, Provincial or First Nations leaders, can sign-on but if the populace feels like there is a backroom deal of any kind, then no matter how much consultation there is, it will go kaput.

To my mind, the better way to do this is to set up a citizens assembly. People in this country have an inherent (and not unwarranted) distrust of politicians mucking around in the constitution. Let the people guide the way, rather than having deals cut in kitchens. It means the politicians have to let go of the reigns, but i can't imagine anyone thinking that a bad idea.

Edited April 27, 2011 by ToadBrother

[g_bambino]

To my mind, the better way to do this is to set up a citizens assembly.

What citizens, though? Who chooses them and what qualifications should they have? The latter is my prime concern, since I've come, over the last few years, to be well aware of just how constitutionally illiterate most Canadians sadly are.

[ToadBrother]

What citizens, though? Who chooses them and what qualifications should they have? The latter is my prime concern, since I've come, over the last few years, to be well aware of just how constitutionally illiterate most Canadians sadly are.

I think the BC model that lead to the STV referendum is a fairly good model. I'm not suggesting a bunch of people are picked, thrown in a room together and commanded to come up with a new set of constitutional amendments. Clearly such an assembly would require expert advice. Citizens assemblies have been used to draft constitutions before, and we're talking something much less ambitious.

Edited April 27, 2011 by ToadBrother

[August1991]

Bill 101 is not going anywhere, no matter who is running the show in Ottawa.

I don't know if you can say that with certainty.

The NDP wants to apply the Bill 101 to firms operating in Quebec under federal jurisdictions. For example, federally chartered banks or Air Canada. But I'm not exactly certain because Jack Layton has danced around this question.

You will no doubt be glad to know that the New Democratic Party is no longer in favour of taking existing language rights away from English-speaking Quebecers.

Now it's willing to settle for giving French-speaking Quebecers new rights that English-speaking ones - or for that matter, any other of Canada's official-language minorities - wouldn't have.

The Gazette

Forgive me if I find the NDP's language policy less than clear.

[ToadBrother]

Forgive me if I find the NDP's language policy less than clear.

Having unclear policies made the Liberals the natural governing party of this country for much of the 20th century.

[fellowtraveller]

could be wrong but I think we're looking at whole new generations of quebecers that don't want a referendum

Right, that would explain why Quebec repeatedly elects The Bloc and will soon elect the PQ. Did you know that the central reason for the existence of both parties is to separate from Canada?

You must think that they are stupid then, voting for things they don't understand?

If things develop in Ottawa and Quebec city as looks evident now, you can count on a referendum. It does not really matter if it succeeds or not, the price to everybody will be, again, horrific. Which is part of what I am trying to point out: we all lose big, soon.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Right, that would explain why Quebec repeatedly elects The Bloc and will soon elect the PQ. Did you know that the central reason for the existence of both parties is to separate from Canada?

You must think that they are stupid then, voting for things they don't understand?

If things develop in Ottawa and Quebec city as looks evident now, you can count on a referendum. It does not really matter if it succeeds or not, the price to everybody will be, again, horrific. Which is part of what I am trying to point out: we all lose big, soon.

Once again, a failure to understand. The whole reason behind this push for the NDP instead of the Bloc is because young Quebecois are tired of the separatist talks. The only reason the PQ are leading in a plurality in polls is because there are no other solid options to a tired Charest... and Marois only has 38%. Youth are attempting to find other options such as Quebec Solidaire, but they are all receiving lukewarm attention. If the NDP restarted their provincial party after this revolution as an alternative federalist party, they'd flock to it.

[ToadBrother]

Right, that would explain why Quebec repeatedly elects The Bloc and will soon elect the PQ. Did you know that the central reason for the existence of both parties is to separate from Canada?

You must think that they are stupid then, voting for things they don't understand?

You're under the misapprehension that soft nationalists vote for these parties because they want to secede. The PQ, in particular, has had a commanding presence in Quebec for years, and yet has got two failed referendums to show for it, in no small part because they too confused votes for the party as votes for secession.

If things develop in Ottawa and Quebec city as looks evident now, you can count on a referendum. It does not really matter if it succeeds or not, the price to everybody will be, again, horrific. Which is part of what I am trying to point out: we all lose big, soon.

This is nothing more than fearmongering. There is no evidence that there is any desire for another referendum. The PQ is set to win in Quebec not because Quebecers are ready to leave the country, but because the Liberals are a tired, corrupt regime.

[fellowtraveller]

The situation in Quebec is volatile and a part of the equally volatile federal sitaution that is developing. I fail to see how a separatist provincial govt helps that in any way. If you think that the PQ or Marois or the Bloc have renounced their central tenet, you are all delusional.

But Quebec is only a part and perhaps a small part of what I'm referring to in the OP.

It saddens me that nearly certainly what will come of this election is ongoing vitriol, lack of cooperation and greater regionalism. Our times call for a strong central govt with clear direction and that is very, very unlikely. We're gonna pay, all of us. The nastiness that grips Ottawa is just a beginning to the nastiness that will soon grip the rest.

[Scotty]

You're under the misapprehension that soft nationalists vote for these parties because they want to secede.

There is no question they do. They're simply too smart to leave as long as Momma Canada is paying so much of their bills.

Don't pretend there is any love of Canada amongst these people. There is only a love of federal transfers.

[ToadBrother]

There is no question they do. They're simply too smart to leave as long as Momma Canada is paying so much of their bills.

Don't pretend there is any love of Canada amongst these people. There is only a love of federal transfers.

Because you've shown such an acute knowledge of Quebec politics.

[Scotty]

Because you've shown such an acute knowledge of Quebec politics.

I grew up in Quebec, lived there for many years. I now travel back and forth between Ontario and Quebec almost every day, and half the people I deal with are Quebecers. Never met one yet who cared a fig for Canada beyond commercial or economic interests.