Federal Election Polls

[TimG]

To be blunt, I think we're all letting this "sea of orange" nonsense blur our vision. I mean, I could be wrong, and maybe Monday night Prime Minister Jack Layton will be thanking his wife and all the little people that made it all possible, but honestly, I just can't see it happening. We'll have a Tory government, perhaps somewhat chastened, but still there and still trying to figure out a way to keep a hold on power.

Well. The prospect is scaring the crap out of me. When Ford got elected in TO I thought it was a big endorsement of policies. Now I see it as a big F-U sent by the electorate to punish the people currently in charge. We are seeing that same phenomena happening now. I hope it does not end badly. Edited April 27, 2011 by TimG

[cybercoma]

He said the Quebequois are a nation. Not Quebec. A subtle and important difference that upset the sovereigntists.

Credibility called, it misses you. Funny how you recognize "subtle and important difference" when it's your guy, but not anyone else's.

[TimG]

Credibility called, it misses you. Funny how you recognize "subtle and important difference" when it's your guy, but not anyone else's.

What is subtle about repudiating the clarity act?

[Harry]

I don't see any sign whatsoever of the NDP campaign abating, apart from the absurd comments of most of the corporate media's political pundits whose comments are usually way out of date, in this fast moving election pace. If anything the NDP support is picking up steam. There are all sorts of rumours floating around that Layton and the NDP are now locking in first place. Remember all the silly comments leading up to the NDP vaulting past the Liberals into second place. Same thing now, just replace Liberals with the Conservatives and you've got it.

And the comments below are said not by an NDPer by-the-way.

Election Ringside, April 27: Prime Minister Jack Layton?

There is no reason to believe otherwise, frankly, or that this has to come to a halt. Fact: various polls are now showing the NDP eating not only into the Liberal vote (as in Ontario) but also into the Conservative vote pretty much everywhere outside the prairies. Analysis is catching up. Fact: the NDP surge is showing no sign of abating. Fact: The NDP has a great, upbeat "closer"-style spot on television right now, while the other parties have ads that are not resonating. Fact: The Conservative response, which would probably be impressive, is nowhere to be seen, plus they just lost one of their best strategy guys at the worst possible moment. Meanwhile, the Liberals are starting to fall off the coverage radar. Fact: earned media campaign coverage is about to go dark for the Royal Wedding and the final weekend.

All of those factors would tend to continue the NDP surge. Recoil is possible, of course. But for now, there seems to be no real floor to the Liberal support (they went through that in 2008, pretended they were on a new form of solid ground and got used to it. Big mistake.) And as for the Conservatives, we know now that the Tory floor from one election to the next is around 30 per cent, but that means that Mr. Layton still has room to grow -- a fair bit in fact. And Mr. Harper has not run the kind of campaign that makes newcomers actually desire to stay in the Conservative tent.

I am seriously starting to wonder whether some sort of massive genie hasn't been let out of the bottle here. Mr. Harper has framed the campaign and its run-up as an anti-politics exercise. Putting words in the PM's mouth, I described his core pitch as being, "The heck with these elections we've all come to hate. Vote for a Harper majority and all this political crap gets out of your hair for four years." What appears to be happening here is that the anti-politics appeal has found its audience, and it's expression is "the heck with Harper and Ignatieff." The response seems not to have taken the form of Liberal voters sourly staying home and throwing the election to the Conservatives. Rather, it appears the anti-politician mood that the Prime Minister stoked has created an immense opening for Mr. Layton's positive, uplifting, take-a-chance-on-me offering.

First in Quebec, now all over the country, voters who have never voted New Democrat in their lives are flocking to the NDP. Now, the major questions that lie ahead are these. First, is Layton actually not only going to win the campaign, but win the election, or come close enough to put a hung parliament into play with the NDP having a shot at government? Second, will people become aware of this in the dying days of the campaign? Third, if they do, how will they react, and how will other actors, such as markets and lenders? Fourth, when all is said and done on May 2, what will Canadians' have actually said? Goodbye Harper? Hello Jack? Something in between? If so, what?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/election-ringside/election-ringside-april-27-prime-minister-jack-layton/article2001040/

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

Well. The prospect is scaring the crap out of me. When Ford got elected in TO I thought it was a big endorsement of policies. Now I see it as a big F-U sent by the electorate to punish the people currently in charge. We are seeing that same phenomena happening now. I hope it does not end badly.

Even if your worst-case scenario of a Prime Minister Jack Layton giving his victory speech Monday night, he's going to be the leader of a minority government, so it's not as if he's going to have a free hand to do what he likes. But honestly, I think that's the much less likely possibility. The NDP's rise is meteoric, but fudgy in different regions, so while I expect an NDP official opposition as the most likely possibility, about the only way Jack Layton will form a government is if the Liberals join forces him. That may actually be very complicated, as the last time a Liberal leader tried that he was roasted alive. Iggy would be in the same position as Dion was after the 2008 election.

[punked]

Even if your worst-case scenario of a Prime Minister Jack Layton giving his victory speech Monday night, he's going to be the leader of a minority government, so it's not as if he's going to have a free hand to do what he likes. But honestly, I think that's the much less likely possibility. The NDP's rise is meteoric, but fudgy in different regions, so while I expect an NDP official opposition as the most likely possibility, about the only way Jack Layton will form a government is if the Liberals join forces him. That may actually be very complicated, as the last time a Liberal leader tried that he was roasted alive. Iggy would be in the same position as Dion was after the 2008 election.

Not only that even if he were to get a Majority remember unlike the provinces there is a Senate and it is full of Liberals and Tories. Like it or not the NDPs hands will be tied while they govern.

[Harry]

Correct but Jack works well with others so it should all work out.

[punked]

Just wanted to point out Jack Jumped ahead of Harper in the leadership index today!

[nittanylionstorm07]

Not only that even if he were to get a Majority remember unlike the provinces there is a Senate and it is full of Liberals and Tories. Like it or not the NDPs hands will be tied while they govern.

If the unelected Tories in the Senate even remotely try to thwart the will of the people by doing that, you can say goodbye to the entire chamber.

[cybercoma]

I wonder if Layton would withold senate appointments if he became PM.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I wonder if Layton would withold senate appointments if he became PM.

Probably not if the Tories, who I suspect would do something like this, decided to try to overrule the NDP government.

[Battletoads]

Not only that even if he were to get a Majority remember unlike the provinces there is a Senate and it is full of Liberals and Tories. Like it or not the NDPs hands will be tied while they govern.

I have a feeling that would play right into the NDPs hands...

[cybercoma]

Probably not if the Tories, who I suspect would do something like this, decided to try to overrule the NDP government.

I know what you mean, but that's the dilemma. They don't recognize the Senate. When one of theirs was called to the Senate she had to be considered an independent because the party wouldn't back her.

[punked]

I know what you mean, but that's the dilemma. They don't recognize the Senate. When one of theirs was called to the Senate she had to be considered an independent because the party wouldn't back her.

Kicked her right out we did, and darn right. I would love them to throw out our legislation so we can call a referendum on the Senate. I think the Question should be.

Which would you rather happen to the Senate:

Stay the same

Elected

Abolished

Top two choice go to a run off unless 50% of the country agrees. Bring it on Senate you are next.

[ToadBrother]

I have a feeling that would play right into the NDPs hands...

And that would be a plus for the NDP if they had a majority and it was up to the House of Commons, but it's not. It's up to the House of Commons, the Senate and the Provinces, and I still maintain that the Provinces are not just going to kill the Senate because the Government thinks this is a good idea.

[ToadBrother]

Kicked her right out we did, and darn right. I would love them to throw out our legislation so we can call a referendum on the Senate. I think the Question should be.

Which would you rather happen to the Senate:

Stay the same

Elected

Abolished

Top two choice go to a run off unless 50% of the country agrees. Bring it on Senate you are next.

And wouldn't that be grand, if that's how the Constitution allowed amendments to be passed. But it isn't. We've been over this countless times here, to alter or eliminate the Senate you're going to require the House of Commons, the Senate, the Governor General and two thirds of the Provinces representing over half the population to agree to it. An attempt at a referendum would be unlawful, and frankly trying it would be outrageously irresponsible.

[wyly]

And that would be a plus for the NDP if they had a majority and it was up to the House of Commons, but it's not. It's up to the House of Commons, the Senate and the Provinces, and I still maintain that the Provinces are not just going to kill the Senate because the Government thinks this is a good idea.

if the people get riled up the provinces will back down...

[ToadBrother]

if the people get riled up the provinces will back down...

The people in this case would not be singular. And the Senate has defied the Commons before and they're still there. This is nothing more than wishful thinking. The Provinces may not like the way the Senate is formulated, but it's as close as they have to a representative house for their interests.

[Bryan]

MacLeans - Innovative Research

National...

CPC - 38.4%

Libs - 24.9%

NDP - 23.9%

Ontario...

CPC - 41.4%

Libs - 36.1%

NDP - 17%

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/27/will-jack-layton-usurp-michael-ignatieff/

[nittanylionstorm07]

MacLeans - Innovative Research

National...

CPC - 38.4%

Libs - 24.9%

NDP - 23.9%

Ontario...

CPC - 41.4%

Libs - 36.1%

NDP - 17%

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/27/will-jack-layton-usurp-michael-ignatieff/

That poll seems a bit behind. Includes information from as far back as April 21 and only up to April 25.

[Harry]

Greg Lyle is connected with the Conservatives - but nice try

And I wouldn't be flashing that poll around as that is what Harper got last time.

I knew I remembered that name he is the L Ian Macdonald of polling firms.

Greg Lyle, the owner of Innovative Research who's also worked on campaigns for the BC Liberals and former Progressive Conservatives,

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[Bryan]

Greg Lyle is connected with the Conservatives - but nice try

And I wouldn't be flashing that poll around as that is what Harper got last time.

I knew I remembered that name he is the L Ian Macdonald of polling firms.

What was that YOU said about losing credibility by dismissing polls you don't like?

[nittanylionstorm07]

What was that YOU said about losing credibility by dismissing polls you don't like?

There is actually nothing wrong with the poll when put in context with the others. It's just old, and it fits well with a few other polls from its timeframe.

[ToadBrother]

What was that YOU said about losing credibility by dismissing polls you don't like?

The poll basically denies the NDP bump. I don't think you have to be an NDP partisan to say that there are problems with it.

[wyly]

What was that YOU said about losing credibility by dismissing polls you don't like?

others are posting todays polls you and shady want to post polls weeks to months old just pretend something good is happening for dear leader...partisan politics at it's worst, complete and total denial...

not surprising the conservative ranks is where we find the AGW deniers, birthers, truthers, creationists and just about every other kook case as well...