ScottM Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Leger falls in line with Nanos, while Forum and Abacus stand together in a stark contrast. The only thing they agree on is that the NDP is in trouble, though Leger takes that to an entirely new level with their Quebec numbers: 28% with the other three parties all within 7%. If that's true, they're in big trouble. After all, over half of their caucus was from Quebec following the 2011 election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 The decline of the NDP is barely noticeable versus yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) Yes according to Leger survey this morning puts the Liberals in the lead with 32% support, the Conservatives are second with 30% while the NDP is at 26%.. It looks like voters are beginning to realize that the only way to block another 4 years of nightmare is strategically to switch to Liberals in those ridings where there is a tight race between Liberals and conservatives. Edited October 2, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yes, 170-175 MPs. What makes you so sure? I highly doubt the Conservatives will win a majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 I highly doubt the Conservatives will win a majority. I highly doubt conservatives will win at all!!!. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 I highly doubt conservatives will win at all!!!. Even if you took today's Nanos poll, and you give it the good old Conservative bump, they'd still win. The probability that the Conservatives win is over 50%. The other two, around 25%. So if you were a betting person... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 The decline of the NDP is barely noticeable versus yesterday. Yeah, I wasn't comparing today to yesterday. I just meant that the only thing the pollsters all agree on is that the NDP is well behind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah, I wasn't comparing today to yesterday. I just meant that the only thing the pollsters all agree on is that the NDP is well behind. Oops, sorry for misinterpreting your post. Yes, the NDP have fizzled for sure. I can't seem to find any poll that indicates they have recovered any momentum. And this is at a time that Mulcair says the NDP is looking forward to winning a minority government. #fail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Oops, sorry for misinterpreting your post. Yes, the NDP have fizzled for sure. I can't seem to find any poll that indicates they have recovered any momentum. And this is at a time that Mulcair says the NDP is looking forward to winning a minority government. #fail No problem. And yeah, I don't the NDP can form any type of government without Quebec. They're not doing well enough in Ontario to have a chance. Based on some things I've read, the Bob Rae government still seems to have something to do with that. Funny how electoral success can backfire later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouver King Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 What makes you so sure? I highly doubt the Conservatives will win a majority. The rate of disintegration by NDP's Quebec base extrapolated over final 2 weeks. Plus there are the usual Tory enhancements - vote efficiency, supporters "rabid devotion' equates into ALL supporters actually showing up to vote, the legendary 3-5% Tory election day bump above poll consensus, CPC legislation designed to discourage youth and or poor voters, etc. etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Even if you took today's Nanos poll, and you give it the good old Conservative bump, they'd still win. The probability that the Conservatives win is over 50%. The other two, around 25%. So if you were a betting person... I anticipate a lot of last minute progressive swing voters to Liberals in tight ridings as many would remember the 4 year nightmare they have been through this time round and will do what is necessary to minimize a repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) I anticipate a lot of last minute progressive swing voters to Liberals in tight ridings as many would remember the 4 year nightmare they have been through this time round and will do what is necessary to minimize a repeat. Considering a large proportion of people vote the day of or figure out what they want to vote T-1/T-2, I'd say that that's a stretch. The rate of disintegration by NDP's Quebec base extrapolated over final 2 weeks. Plus there are the usual Tory enhancements - vote efficiency, supporters "rabid devotion' equates into ALL supporters actually showing up to vote, the legendary 3-5% Tory election day bump above poll consensus, CPC legislation designed to discourage youth and or poor voters, etc. etc. I hope you're right! I don't think it's ALL supporters though, isn't it at 68% or something like that? Edited October 2, 2015 by angrypenguin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 The rate of disintegration by NDP's Quebec base extrapolated over final 2 weeks. Plus there are the usual Tory enhancements - vote efficiency, supporters "rabid devotion' equates into ALL supporters actually showing up to vote, the legendary 3-5% Tory election day bump above poll consensus, CPC legislation designed to discourage youth and or poor voters, etc. etc. The Tories do seem to have the most efficient vote, but it's not enough to win a majority without a big shift, and the models take it into account. Plus, while I won't be surprised to see a Tory boost on election day, it's not because they're the Tories -- it's because they're the governing party. If you look at the polling articles on Wikipedia for each of the last four elections, the incumbent party has polled a couple of points higher than their polling numbers. But, again, it's only a couple of points. A big shift would be needed to get the Tories to the point that such a boost is enough for a majority. I don't think there's any chance of a majority unless the Conservatives are averaging ~37-38 percent in the polls in the days immediately before the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Tories do seem to have the most efficient vote, but it's not enough to win a majority without a big shift, and the models take it into account. Plus, while I won't be surprised to see a Tory boost on election day, it's not because they're the Tories -- it's because they're the governing party. If you look at the polling articles on Wikipedia for each of the last four elections, the incumbent party has polled a couple of points higher than their polling numbers. But, again, it's only a couple of points. A big shift would be needed to get the Tories to the point that such a boost is enough for a majority. I don't think there's any chance of a majority unless the Conservatives are averaging ~37-38 percent in the polls in the days immediately before the election. I don't think the polls account for that at all. Perhaps this one does, but not the NANOS/EKOS/Forum. http://signal.thestar.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't think the polls account for that at all. Perhaps this one does, but not the NANOS/EKOS/Forum. http://signal.thestar.com/ This poll seems to have topped the conservatives consistently since September 10!!!!!. It contradict almost every other poll that have the three parties switch places for top many times over since then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 This poll seems to have topped the conservatives consistently since September 10!!!!!. It contradict almost every other poll that have the three parties switch places for top many times over since then. Take a look at the methodology. It's rather...interesting. Also, if you see upthread, you can see why that poll was commissioned. Nanos/Forum/Ekos did not predict the BC Premier win recently either. They all predicted a NDP win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancouver King Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 I hope you're right! I don't think it's ALL supporters though, isn't it at 68% or something like that? Difficult to find that exact question among pollsters, however, 68% is unquestionably light given the tightness of the campaign plus the strength of belief of Conservative supporters. Contrast that to 'fair weather" Liberal supporters and the inescapable conclusion is a definite benefit to the CPC in terms of motivated adherents and getting out the vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Difficult to find that exact question among pollsters, however, 68% is unquestionably light given the tightness of the campaign plus the strength of belief of Conservative supporters. Contrast that to 'fair weather" Liberal supporters and the inescapable conclusion is a definite benefit to the CPC in terms of motivated adherents and getting out the vote. I suspect you are right. Does anyone have this number? I remember reading this yesterday in some poll! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) Even if you took today's Nanos poll, and you give it the good old Conservative bump, they'd still win. The probability that the Conservatives win is over 50%. The other two, around 25%. So if you were a betting person... If your prediction materialize this will mean the Tories will form a government with 31.9% of votes in other words they will form a government with about 20% of eligible voters agreeing with them and voting for them (as some 30 to 40% of those who disagree or don't like any of the parties including conservatives will not participate) and their policies. In other words this means that 20% of religious right and the rich will dictate the remaining 80% how to live their lives. Democracy at work will be I am sure!!!! Edited October 2, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 If your prediction materialize this will mean the Tories will form a government with 31.6% of votes in other words they will form a government with about 20% of eligible voters agreeing with them and voting for them (as some 30 to 40% of those who disagree or don't like any of the parties including conservatives will not participate) and their policies. In other words this means that 20% of religious right and the rich will dictate the remaining 80% how to live their lives. A democracy in action will be!!!! If you have an issue with this, I suggest you take it up with your MP so the electoral process gets changed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 (edited) If you have an issue with this, I suggest you take it up with your MP so the electoral process gets changed. I am only stating the facts and figures. It is for reader to decide for herself or himself. I believe Trudeau has promised a change somehow in a fairer manner. I don't know the details yet have to do some research on how he plans to change it. May be the Tories can make it mandatory. Vote or lose your citizenship!!. It is a good fit to their policies Edited October 2, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 I don't think the polls account for that at all. Perhaps this one does, but not the NANOS/EKOS/Forum. http://signal.thestar.com/ Well, polls are polls. We know that some are wrong right now, because there's a pretty sharp divide. Models do account for vote efficiency. I don't know how far back you'd have to go to find it, but Eric Grenier made a post on his blog some months ago in which he discussed estimated vote percentages needed for each party to reach a majority. The Conservatives' number was the lowest. I think it was just under 40%. The Liberals number was the highest -- just over 42%, iirc. But that link goes to a model which can make adjustments for factors like efficiency. A poll simply is what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Well, polls are polls. We know that some are wrong right now, because there's a pretty sharp divide. Models do account for vote efficiency. I don't know how far back you'd have to go to find it, but Eric Grenier made a post on his blog some months ago in which he discussed estimated vote percentages needed for each party to reach a majority. The Conservatives' number was the lowest. I think it was just under 40%. The Liberals number was the highest -- just over 42%, iirc. But that link goes to a model which can make adjustments for factors like efficiency. A poll simply is what it is. Fair point. Would you happen to have the article from Grenier? I can't seem to find it, and it does very much interest me! (I'm a huge political junkie ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottM Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 Fair point. Would you happen to have the article from Grenier? I can't seem to find it, and it does very much interest me! (I'm a huge political junkie ) I'll have to dig. I'll see if I can find it. And yeah, I'm a political junkie too. I'm an American, but since the Canadian campaign is going on right now, most of my attention is on that. Earlier in the year, I was focused on the U.K. When our primaries really begin, I'll key in on that. I follow Australian politics too. I basically just can't get enough of it. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 I'll have to dig. I'll see if I can find it. And yeah, I'm a political junkie too. I'm an American, but since the Canadian campaign is going on right now, most of my attention is on that. Earlier in the year, I was focused on the U.K. When our primaries really begin, I'll key in on that. I follow Australian politics too. I basically just can't get enough of it. Lol Haahahaha! Political junkies FTW! My understanding of US politics is much worse than my understanding of Canadian politics, but I follow the US presidential election like the way I follow it in Canada. As far as the UK, Middleton is the only thing I focus on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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