Federal election his spring!

[Mr.Canada]

That's right. I believe that very soon the PM will engineer his own defeat to force a spring election. An election has to happen now because Ontario goes to the polls this fall for the Premiership of Ontario. So I'd expect a poison pill to be in the budget that all parties will not be able to vote for. The writ will drop, the Tories will win and Bob Rae will be the new leader of the Liberals. So he'll be happy.

[scribblet]

I don't agree that Harper will engineer his own defeat, the Liberals might do that all on their own.. LOL

I agree Bob Rae will be the next leader which is why an election is needed to get rid of Ignatieff -( Liberals will lose again, therefore Iggy will have to go).

[Mr.Canada]

I don't agree that Harper will engineer his own defeat, the Liberals might do that all on their own.. LOL

I agree Bob Rae will be the next leader which is why an election is needed to get rid of Ignatieff -( Liberals will lose again, therefore Iggy will have to go).

PM Harper will crush Bob Rae as well. it will be easier then it was to do to Ignatieff.

[scribblet]

I disagree, Bob Rae will be a far more formidable opponent, his particular problem is his Ontario baggage.

[GWiz]

That's right. I believe that very soon the PM will engineer his own defeat to force a spring election. An election has to happen now because Ontario goes to the polls this fall for the Premiership of Ontario. So I'd expect a poison pill to be in the budget that all parties will not be able to vote for. The writ will drop, the Tories will win and Bob Rae will be the new leader of the Liberals. So he'll be happy.

You wish...

After the next election which likely won't change much of anything there may be 3 new leaders fighting the following election not just one... Oh, and Rae WON'T be one of them...

[ToadBrother]

That's right. I believe that very soon the PM will engineer his own defeat to force a spring election. An election has to happen now because Ontario goes to the polls this fall for the Premiership of Ontario. So I'd expect a poison pill to be in the budget that all parties will not be able to vote for. The writ will drop, the Tories will win and Bob Rae will be the new leader of the Liberals. So he'll be happy.

I'm predicting the current polls will turn out to be yet another bump, there will be a retreat to the low 30s, and everyone will hold their noses and somehow find a way to waddle through another session before hitting the pancake trail.

[Mr.Canada]

I'm predicting the current polls will turn out to be yet another bump, there will be a retreat to the low 30s, and everyone will hold their noses and somehow find a way to waddle through another session before hitting the pancake trail.

Maybe. That's another thing. Look how long PM harper has been in power with a minority government. Then people try to say he's failed somehow.

[ToadBrother]

Maybe. That's another thing. Look how long PM harper has been in power with a minority government. Then people try to say he's failed somehow.

The reason for the longevity of this minority government has little to do with Harper's strengths, if he had the strengths that have so often been attributed to him, he would have had a majority by now. The reason is the weakness of the Liberals.

[Keepitsimple]

So I'd expect a poison pill to be in the budget that all parties will not be able to vote for. The writ will drop, the Tories will win and Bob Rae will be the new leader of the Liberals. So he'll be happy.

Listening to the constant whining and complaining from the opposition, it would appear that ANYTHING the Conservatives put forward would be viewed as a Poison Pill. They agree with nothing and oppose everything. They harp on about any and everything. They're just a bunch of "harpers".

[scouterjim]

I disagree, Bob Rae will be a far more formidable opponent, his particular problem is his Ontario baggage.

Rae doesn't even know which party he belongs to. Liberal? NDP? He changes like the wind.

[ToadBrother]

Listening to the constant whining and complaining from the opposition, it would appear that ANYTHING the Conservatives put forward would be viewed as a Poison Pill. They agree with nothing and oppose everything. They harp on about any and everything. They're just a bunch of "harpers".

They're the Opposition. I recall the Tories doing much the same during the Martin minority.

I'll never understand this complaint when it comes from partisans, as if the party they wear the t-shirt for would do it any differently.

[Keepitsimple]

The reason for the longevity of this minority government has little to do with Harper's strengths, if he had the strengths that have so often been attributed to him, he would have had a majority by now. The reason is the weakness of the Liberals.

First the Conservatives reduced the Liberals under Martin to a minority....then they formed a Conservative minority government. Then they increased that minority substantially. It's called incrementalism.....but in the spirit of democracy, it's also called inclusion. The Conservative tent is getting bigger. Critics call it vote pandering but the reality is that the vast majority of new Canadians come from culturally conservative backgrounds and feel more at home with a prinicipled, family oriented, law and order government. Conservative policies are resonating with more and more Canadians - straight forward issues that everyday people can relate to; tighten up the immigration and refugee system and make it more relevant TO CANADA. Get tougher with repeat and violent criminals. Create jobs and manage the economy.

[ToadBrother]

First the Conservatives reduced the Liberals under Martin to a minority....then they formed a Conservative minority government. Then they increased that minority substantially. It's called incrementalism.....but in the spirit of democracy, it's also called inclusion. The Conservative tent is getting bigger. Critics call it vote pandering but the reality is that the vast majority of new Canadians come from culturally conservative backgrounds and feel more at home with a prinicipled, family oriented, law and order government. Conservative policies are resonating with more and more Canadians - straight forward issues that everyday people can relate to; tighten up the immigration and refugee system and make it more relevant TO CANADA. Get tougher with repeat and violent criminals. Create jobs and manage the economy.

So, on the one hand, you claim the Tories are becoming more centrist, but on the other hand you say everyone wants a socially conservative government... This is a fascinating object lesson in compartmentalization.

[Mr.Canada]

So, on the one hand, you claim the Tories are becoming more centrist, but on the other hand you say everyone wants a socially conservative government... This is a fascinating object lesson in compartmentalization.

Wishing to update the immigration system is akin to being a social conservative?

[Shwa]

Harper Tories on the brink of majority, poll finds

Harper edges closer to majority

Tory majority? Why Stephen Harper is riding high in the polls

Yeah there is lots of talk of a Tory majority government from the Globe, the Star and even the CBC. Oh, wait. Those stories are from 2008.

[Mr.Canada]

Harper Tories on the brink of majority, poll finds

Harper edges closer to majority

Tory majority? Why Stephen Harper is riding high in the polls

Yeah there is lots of talk of a Tory majority government from the Globe, the Star and even the CBC. Oh, wait. Those stories are from 2008.

Yep and what happened in that election? The Tories gained 19 seats. They've improved every election so far since merging the two parties. Looks like a steady progression to me.

Plus the Tories are the only party with support on every coast of Canada and in every region of Canada.

Edited February 28, 2011 by Mr.Canada

[Shwa]

Yep and what happened in that election? The Tories gained 19 seats. They've improved every election so far since merging the two parties. Looks like a steady progression to me.

Plus the Tories are the only party with support on every coast of Canada and in every region of Canada.

But they could just as easily lose 19 seats. The point being is that they were on track for a majority when the polls came out - two elections in a row - and ended up with a minority. Prime Minister Harper has to win a majority or he is toast. And the way he appears into a micro-managing control freak, well, it should be a fun election!

[Mr.Canada]

But they could just as easily lose 19 seats. The point being is that they were on track for a majority when the polls came out - two elections in a row - and ended up with a minority. Prime Minister Harper has to win a majority or he is toast. And the way he appears into a micro-managing control freak, well, it should be a fun election!

Fun indeed. I doubt the Liberals can even afford to mount an offense at all. The NDP may unseat the Liberals as official opposition.

[ToadBrother]

Harper Tories on the brink of majority, poll finds

Harper edges closer to majority

Tory majority? Why Stephen Harper is riding high in the polls

Yeah there is lots of talk of a Tory majority government from the Globe, the Star and even the CBC. Oh, wait. Those stories are from 2008.

We've been this way before. I think we've had two occasions since 2008 election that the Tories looked to be poised to form a majority government, and they both evaporated.

I can't see an election before the budget, and if the polls from now until then continue to show strong and sustained Tory support, then Harper will force an election. But if the pattern that we've seen for some time continues, the polls will collapse back down to the low 30s and we'll have no election. The Liberals won't want one because they figure they have a helluva lot to lose, and the Tories won't want one, because Harper figures he's finished if all another election does is deliver him another minority. It's another example of the twisted, unspoken and yet potent coalition between the Tories and Liberals.

[Keepitsimple]

So, on the one hand, you claim the Tories are becoming more centrist, but on the other hand you say everyone wants a socially conservative government... This is a fascinating object lesson in compartmentalization.

I didn't say "everyone" - I said most new Canadians have more in common with Conservatives than Liberals - because of their culturally conservative backgrounds. Conservatives will likely never be able to find enough common ground with NDPers and the left side of the Liberal party to get their votes....there's a limit to how far away from the center you can stray before you start losing the principles that you stand for. And that's why Canada will always have both Conservative and Liberal parties. Canada is a centrist country and often, events dictate which way the pendulum will swing.....but in Canada, its arc is very small.

Edited February 28, 2011 by Keepitsimple

[Mr.Canada]

Great post KIS.

[GWiz]

We've been this way before. I think we've had two occasions since 2008 election that the Tories looked to be poised to form a majority government, and they both evaporated.

I can't see an election before the budget, and if the polls from now until then continue to show strong and sustained Tory support, then Harper will force an election. But if the pattern that we've seen for some time continues, the polls will collapse back down to the low 30s and we'll have no election. The Liberals won't want one because they figure they have a helluva lot to lose, and the Tories won't want one, because Harper figures he's finished if all another election does is deliver him another minority. It's another example of the twisted, unspoken and yet potent coalition between the Tories and Liberals.

pssst, it was LAYTON not Iggy that caved on the Corporate tax breaks and it was LEYTON not Iggy that'spent 45 minutes in a private meeting trying to make a DEAL not to force an election...

Maybe that thread needs bumping?

[nicky10013]

pssst, it was LAYTON not Iggy that caved on the Corporate tax breaks and it was LEYTON not Iggy that'spent 45 minutes in a private meeting trying to make a DEAL not to force an election...

Maybe that thread needs bumping?

Exactly. Punked comes on here and whines about how the Liberals get nothing done and how Jack will stand up to make lives better, but Happy Jack is only in that position (which is wildly spun, Jack is doing it to avoid an election) because Harper picked Layton to deal with. Even though he refers to a coalition of separatists and socialists, he knows that dealing solely with the NDP and cutting out the LPC entirely splits the left and makes the LPC look extraordinarily weak to it's own supporters. Ignatieff can't deal and "make a coalition" with an unwilling party. All they can do is support or not support a government until they have the money and the platform to put up a respectable fight. Prior to contrary belief, they've got the former and I suspect we'll have to wait until a campaign to see the latter.

[GostHacked]

Saw an ad on the TV today at the pub. It was all about how Harper and the CON-servatives are doing a great job so far with increased jobs and balancing the budget by 2015-16..... well that is if he remains in power.

Another sham election coming our way. Oh hell, who the crap am I sounding like?!!?!?!?!?!

[nicky10013]

Saw an ad on the TV today at the pub. It was all about how Harper and the CON-servatives are doing a great job so far with increased jobs and balancing the budget by 2015-16..... well that is if he remains in power.

Another sham election coming our way. Oh hell, who the crap am I sounding like?!!?!?!?!?!

One of the quotes at the bottom is "Canada an economic superstar" from The Economist.

Well...here's what the Economist actually says.

The Goldilocks recovery

Strict financial regulation and a new commodity boom have turned “boring” Canada into an economic star

The government of Stephen Harper, the Conservative prime minister, might have expected to receive more praise for the economy’s robust performance. If it has not, that may be partly because it insisted that the recession was imported from the outside world. Much of the country’s resilience stems from policies—such as bank regulation and sound public finances—which predate Mr Harper. The Bank of Canada can share some of the credit too. But Britons might note that Mr Harper has managed to govern for four years without a parliamentary majority, and that this has not prevented Canada from sailing through the recession.

http://www.economist.com/node/16060113

Edited March 1, 2011 by nicky10013