Ipsos Globe CTV 1-3 June

[August1991]

The CBC will use our tax money to say nothing about this. (Not only will they not report this but I guess they won't even comment on them.)

Libs 32%

CPC 31%

NDP 17%

Sample of 1000, survey conducted between 1 and 3 June.

G&M Ipsos Reid

In Ontario, it's:

CPC 35%

Libs 32%

[takeanumber]

Sample of 1000, survey conducted between 1 and 3 June

Chincy on the sample size.

I prefer 2600 for a country like Canada. More reliable results.

The 1000 makes me wince.

If we believe the poll, I'd say Martin needed to stop the hemoraging on Monday.

[Dennis]

A sample size of 1000 is ok. Ipsos is one of the major polling firms in Canada. I think they stick to that number because they come out with new polls more frequently than the others do.

Besides, the Leger poll, with a sample size of over 3000, pretty much had the same results as Ipsos' previous poll - 35 Lib, 30 Tory.

And, quite frankly, I don't know what Paul Martin can do to turn this around. He has already tried to implement a number of different strategies, and the numbers keep going down for him - even personally.

In my opinion, Martin might have lost this election even before it started. He wasn't able to set a positive agenda while he served as Prime Minister for the past five months, and going negative - which he has already done - only serves to highlight even further to the voters that the Liberals bring absolutely nothing new to the table.

I hear they might try to bring up Iraq. I think it will have the same effect as all the other stabs in the dark.

Harper comes out with his full platform tomorrow. My guess is that some economists will have problems with the numbers. So, they might try to make some hay with that issue.

However, I think Harper has already prepared a rebuttal which will have something to do with a lack of credibility the Liberlas have on being honest about the way they spend money.

If Harper wins that debate, I think it will be a question of Conservative minority or majority.

And, so far, Martin has NOT been able to maintain a consistent message, or defence, on anything.

It's getting good.

[August1991]

A sample size of 1000 is ok.

I prefer 2600 for a country like Canada. More reliable results.

Pollsters are understanding that in Canada it's a seat game and federally, that means regional politics. (An obvious example is Quebec. With a small sample of 250 in Quebec, it is possible to overestimate the Liberals and skew the national results.)

Somewhere between 2500 and 3000 offers sufficient size to account for regional votes.

But agreed, sampling is a robust art. A couple of hundred gives you a good idea.

[maplesyrup]

Are the regional statistics available?

Just curious as Ipsos-Reid had a rogue poll with their previous regional polling. Even a right winger like Norm Spector called it. The national numbers they just released seem to make sense though.

[maplesyrup]

CBC announced about a week ago they were not going to comment on the polls during the election.

Gee, I wonder why.

[Goldie]

The best was on CTV, Craig Oliver almost in tears says, We might as well say we have a new front runner.

Gee ya think!

News lady says, "what do the Liberals have to do to turn things around". Oliver..., Blah, Blah, Scare, Blah, Blah, Two visions, Blah, stark contrast. Three weeks left, they can do it, Not looking good now. Big pout, fade to black.

Nice reporting you much of babies.

[Kliege]

Martin will be out of the country tommrow and most of the news media will be focused on the Flames game Tonight so its will be on Monday when the shit will actually hit the fan. Kinda of like a delayed reaction. The Liberals are going to start to go ape shit and they are going to throw everything they have at Harper and it will get very personal trust me. For the first time in over a decade, the Liberals grip on power is in doubt and they will not take kindly to that. Its going to be like a bunch of Toddlers not getting their way.

Watch for the media to go into overdrive to try to drail Harper anyway they can. They have tryed many times before and have failed and they will failed again.

Liberals Minister will start to make wild and crazy accusations against Harper and the CPC, look for this to when the platform comes out today. Plus their will be more events like the ones with Judy Srgo and McCullum, plus the Liberals allies gays and abortion groups to try to disrupt the CPC campaign, this will also fail and be seen for what it is.

Also watch for the chicken little act to begin. The sky is falling, the sky is falling will start to hit the Liberal campaign. It will no longer be about the Liberal platform and policy, its going to all Harper all the time and its going to get will nasty. Layton is also going to be a target, watch for the Liberals to go after him and NDP voters to try to get them to vote Liberal. The same will be done to Gilles and the Bloc, the Liberals are going to go mad and watch out no one will be speared there madness.

The debates are not going to be nice, Martin and Harper will be the main and only events and insuslts are going to fly like crazy. The debates are not going to be a pretty sight, but they will be fun to watch.

Another problem for the Liberals is most of next week Martin will be away at the G-8 conference in Georgia from Tuesday till Thursday night and he can not leave early because it will tell every one that things aren't going well at home this will only confuse the Liberal ranks with their Leader away things are going to get messy.

Fasten your seatbelts everyone this electon is going to be really really really nasty. Everything and I mean everything is going to be done by the Liberals to stop them from losing and it will be the nastiest and dirtiest election campaign the likes of Canada has never seen.

Will it work? I doubt it, it will just prove to everyone that the Liberals are what they thought they were. A tired, old, corrupt, nasty and dishonest party willing to do anything anything to hold on to power.

Harper just need to continue what he as done for the last two weeks, stay calm and postive, don't take the medias bait, keep the CPC rank and file in line and keep, don't get to comfortable its going to get really nasty for Harper and his family( yes, I believe the Liberals are desperate enough to hold onto power to attack Harpers Family). Its going to get really really nasty. Watch out.

End of Week Two. 2004 Federal election.

[Kliege]

Didn't we just take your call?

By JANE TABER

Saturday, June 5, 2004 - Page A10

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Liberals in Ontario -- as part of a campaign strategy -- are being urged by Paul Martin's team to monopolize political polls on the Internet and to call talk-radio shows to mock the views of NDP Leader Jack Layton and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.

"Stephen Harper wants aircraft carriers, tanks and a much bigger armed forces, for what war?" according to a script of "talking points" Liberal strategists provided on what to say on a radio call-in show.

"Jack Layton seems to be promising the world in spending on programs, and Stephen Harper promises the world in tax cuts -- none of it is balanced -- can they be trusted?" The strategists have also provided a list of radio call-in shows across the province, the name of the hosts and their toll-free numbers. "Please participate in these polls and phone-in shows as much as possible to help our candidates across Ontario. . . ."

and so it begins...

[twister]

Things will get nasty indeed but I think that once the debates occur we will see Martin really go into panic mode. Martin can't match Harper's debating style (Martin usually stumbles while he talks and appears very uncomfortable) while Harper is a naturally great speaker. Once the debates are over watch for the Liberal ship to sink even faster. Could we see them (the Libs) actually drop below 30% support, I definetly think that is possible. This election is shaping up to be a repeat of 1984 with the exception that a landslide for the Tories isn't likely (at this time anyway).

[Slavik44]

Things will get nasty indeed but I think that once the debates occur we will see Martin really go into panic mode. Martin can't match Harper's debating style (Martin usually stumbles while he talks and appears very uncomfortable) while Harper is a naturally great speaker. Once the debates are over watch for the Liberal ship to sink even faster. Could we see them (the Libs) actually drop below 30% support, I definetly think that is possible. This election is shaping up to be a repeat of 1984 with the exception that a landslide for the Tories isn't likely (at this time anyway).

Martin won't stand a chance in a debate, he can't beat jack, and he can't beat harper, those guys are great on their feat.Maybe his only hope is to get Jim Harris in the debate and pick on him. As for these predicted upcoming liberal scare tactics let them, it's amusing at best, and definentley just worsens his public image, actually if you looka t SES poll i think they show that Paul martin as prime minister seems to drop after each attack.