madmax Posted November 5, 2009 Report Posted November 5, 2009 Lets see the MLW prediction machine get it right again. Quote
madmax Posted November 6, 2009 Author Report Posted November 6, 2009 With just three days to go, I am going to bump Part 1 and Part 2 once per day until the election. My thoughts on these two, is that the West is a CPC/NDP affair. The East is a 3 way race (CPC,LPC,NDP) with the CPC holding advantage. Quote
jdobbin Posted November 6, 2009 Report Posted November 6, 2009 With just three days to go, I am going to bump Part 1 and Part 2 once per day until the election. My thoughts on these two, is that the West is a CPC/NDP affair. The East is a 3 way race (CPC,LPC,NDP) with the CPC holding advantage. My feeling is that Nova Scotia will go Tory based on traditional voting patterns. It is the B.C. riding that could be the surprise. Although I don't know the local situation or candidates with great detail, I think the Tories can win this seat. The Liberals will finish well back in both ridings. Quote
Vancouver King Posted November 7, 2009 Report Posted November 7, 2009 My feeling is that Nova Scotia will go Tory based on traditional voting patterns. It is the B.C. riding that could be the surprise. Although I don't know the local situation or candidates with great detail, I think the Tories can win this seat. The Liberals will finish well back in both ridings. The NDP is a shoe-in in New Westminster. At a well attended all candidates meeting last night the Tory candidate was a no-show. She knows whats coming. This BC by-election is a no brainer. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
jdobbin Posted November 7, 2009 Report Posted November 7, 2009 The NDP is a shoe-in in New Westminster. At a well attended all candidates meeting last night the Tory candidate was a no-show. She knows whats coming. This BC by-election is a no brainer. As I said, I don't know the full details on the ground there. I just wondered if there had been any traction for the Tories with their spending and Olympic involvement. Quote
madmax Posted November 8, 2009 Author Report Posted November 8, 2009 The NDP is a shoe-in in New Westminster. At a well attended all candidates meeting last night the Tory candidate was a no-show. She knows whats coming. This BC by-election is a no brainer. There are many occassions that CPC Candidates don't show for debates.... ever... and they still win. Few pay attention to debates. Everyone at debates is already committed. Quote
madmax Posted November 8, 2009 Author Report Posted November 8, 2009 Sunday bump. The questions are "Who will WIN, not Who would you like to win" Punters are saying the NDP will get BC. It is a 3 way race in Nova Scotia, erm, I just think the Punters here are going to be wrong on the outcome if things stay the same in this straw poll. Quote
punked Posted November 8, 2009 Report Posted November 8, 2009 Craig Oliver just predicted 2 ndp wins in By-elections in BC and Nova Scotia, conceding Cons won't win B. Casey's old seat Quote
madmax Posted November 8, 2009 Author Report Posted November 8, 2009 Craig Oliver just predicted 2 ndp wins in By-elections in BC and Nova Scotia, conceding Cons won't win B. Casey's old seat Craig Olivers going to be wrong too.... Quote
punked Posted November 8, 2009 Report Posted November 8, 2009 Craig Olivers going to be wrong too.... I don't know Max the Conservatives seem to be running scared. They just released a radio ad with Peter Mackay a day before the election begging people to vote conservative. Quote
madmax Posted November 8, 2009 Author Report Posted November 8, 2009 I don't know Max the Conservatives seem to be running scared. They just released a radio ad with Peter Mackay a day before the election begging people to vote conservative. Running ads is Smart. That may tip the balance.Here is a CTV prediction. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20091107/byelections_test_091108/20091108?hub= Quote
punked Posted November 8, 2009 Report Posted November 8, 2009 Running ads is Smart. That may tip the balance. Here is a CTV prediction. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20091107/byelections_test_091108/20091108?hub= It may but creating a rush radio ad the day before the election smacks of desperation. Quote
Triple M Posted November 9, 2009 Report Posted November 9, 2009 I was watching the ridding profile on CPAC earlier in the Week and it seems like there is still a lot of anger toward the CPC over the Bill Casey situation. With a popular NDP Provincial Government who won 3 of the 5 provincial seats that make up the ridding this traditional Tory ridding might turn orange. Quote
Wild Bill Posted November 9, 2009 Report Posted November 9, 2009 I was watching the ridding profile on CPAC earlier in the Week and it seems like there is still a lot of anger toward the CPC over the Bill Casey situation. With a popular NDP Provincial Government who won 3 of the 5 provincial seats that make up the ridding this traditional Tory ridding might turn orange. I certainly hope so! This riding reminds me yet again of how far the CPC has gone from its Reform roots. Casey supported his constituents over his party, which was the very essence of the Reform spirit. How ironic that it would be Harper who choose to punish him for it! If the Tories lose Casey's seat it would be a good message that their actions had a price. I wouldn't suggest carrying a grudge more than one election, though. After all, it's not as if the other parties practice the old Reform idea... Quote "A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul." -- George Bernard Shaw "There is no point in being difficult when, with a little extra effort, you can be completely impossible."
madmax Posted November 9, 2009 Author Report Posted November 9, 2009 (edited) Now Wild Bill has me worried. Today I may go down in flames. While I think the riding is one for the CPC to lose, if Wild Bill makes comments like this, I wonder what its like on the East Coast. There is a definite irony in that a PC took a Reform type position in representing his Constituents. He was also rewarded by his Constituency for doing so. The CPC has the right to punish a member, and the member has a right to speak his mind when necessary. People don't want a perpetual puppeteer in office. Personally, I can't see the logic in going NDP unless this has become one of those Cadman type ridings. If so, the NDP will hold it for a term (if they get it) and it could swing back CPC if the CPC makes amends. I don't see the riding as having a strong enough base for the NDP to take it. I am personally moving this to a photo finish, with the CPC by a nose. HOwever, as I see here, MLW pundits may prove me wrong. LOL... just looked at the newest vote.... What if the LPC swings up the middle Edited November 9, 2009 by madmax Quote
madmax Posted November 9, 2009 Author Report Posted November 9, 2009 LAST BUMP. Get in your say before the end of the day. And how about a tie breaker....to boot. Quote
Nat Posted November 9, 2009 Report Posted November 9, 2009 I think the NDP will win in New Westminster - Coquitlam riding and the HST will play a part in it. http://thetyee.ca/News/2009/11/06/LaytonAndDonnelly/ Quote
madmax Posted November 9, 2009 Author Report Posted November 9, 2009 Earlier I needed a tie breaker between the LPC and NDP. I need someone to break the tie between the CPC and LPC. Quote
Triple M Posted November 10, 2009 Report Posted November 10, 2009 Interesting that the Sun has called the NS ridding for the Conservatives. I thought results weren't going to be coming in until 10 Tories win first of four federal byelections With 120 of 245 polls reporting, Armstrong had 44.6 per cent of the vote, compared to 26.9 per cent for NDP challenger Mark Austin, who had hoped to ride the coattails of the recently elected NDP provincial government of Darrel Dexter. I'll be first to say I was wrong in buying into the supposed anger at the Tories in this ridding. Quote
kimmy Posted November 10, 2009 Report Posted November 10, 2009 So, final tally has Conservatives 2, BQ 1, NDP 1... the Liberals appear to have finished 3rd in each riding. As a result, early-rising constituents of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley may have to stay up until nearly midnight to find out who will be heading to Ottawa in their name -- all to appease a small, and very possibly extinct, contingent of curmudgeonly West Coasters who have, in the past, groused about the ignominy of hearing a general election called while still lined up at the ballot box. British Columbia, we need to talk. Kiss my ass, east-coast crybaby. -k Quote (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻ Friendly forum facilitator! ┬──┬◡ﾉ(° -°ﾉ)
madmax Posted November 10, 2009 Author Report Posted November 10, 2009 And the Majority of MLW poll punters called these two correct. Our Straw Polls have been very good on calling By Elections and General elections results. Quote
Nat Posted November 10, 2009 Report Posted November 10, 2009 (edited) Congrats Fin, the Conservative that didn't even show up for an all candidates debate deserves to lose! http://www.theprovince.com/news/Donnelly+takes+Westminster+Coquitlam+federal+riding/2204101/story.html http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/brian-topp/middling-gaining-and-falling-flat/article1357394/ Edited November 10, 2009 by Nat Quote
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