Latest Opinion Poll - May 14, 2004

[maplesyrup]

Liberals Move Into Solid Majority Territory But Voters Still Volatile

2000 Canadians surveyed May 7-9 & 11-13, 2004

Margin of error: + or - 2.2%, 19 times out of 20

Canada

Bloc 11%

Cons 24%, down 2%

Grn 5%

Libs 40%, up 2%

NDP 15%, down 1%

Oth 4%

Liberals now have a 16% lead over the Cons, and the Cons have a 9% lead over the NDP.

British Columbia

Cons 23%, down 11%

Grn 10%

Libs 37%, up 15%

NDP 30%, up 7%

Alberta

Cons 51%, down 1%

Grn 4%

Libs 29%, up 8%

NDP 10%

Saskatchewan/Manitoba

Cons 31%, down 6%

Libs 37%, no change

NDP 25%, up 8%

Ontario

Cons 26%, no change

Grn 5%

Libs 49%, up 1%

NDP 16%, down 4%

Quebec

Bloc 46%, up 5%

Libs 31%, down 5%

Atlantic Canada

Cons 28%, up 9%

Libs 48%, down 6%

NDP 20%

Canada-Wide Seat Projections:

Bloc 54-58 Seats

Cons 56-60 Seats

Libs 171-175 Seats

NDP 17-21 Seats

As 155 seats are required for a majority, this poll does project a solid Liberal majority. It also shows however, the Cons and the Bloc running nip and tuck for Official Opposition, and a political disaster for both the Cons and the NDP.

[twister]

It seems in the past few weeks the Conservatives have been up and down (along with the Liberals) in the 2 to 3% range. I think once the election campaign actually begins we'll see the Tories move up and the Liberals fall (as they usually do during elections). The Alliance moved from 17/18% in 2000 at the beginning of the election to 25.5% on election night. I wouldn't be suprised to see the Tories take 32/33% of the vote on June 28th.

[BigGunner]

I have some lingering questions about the seat projection model that Ipsos-Reid is using.

I don't think its accurate, and it seems as though it is applying 2000 voting trends to 2004...all of which are not applicable.

[August1991]

I have some lingering questions about the seat projection model that Ipsos-Reid is using.

The link above gives an explanation of how the model works and it seems sensible to me. On the other hand, I tend to agree with you, BG. Ipsos-Reid must be forecasting a near Liberal sweep in Ontario to get national Liberal seat numbers of 171-175.

Unless something drastic changes, the Liberals will get 20 or so in Quebec. That's it. That's all.

[willy]

Here are the Ekos numbers, they show trend data and a variety of questions about level of support. Very interesting.

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/3May200...ckgroundDoc.pdf

This election could look more like a rollercoaster.

Let the fun begin.

[August1991]

Thanks, Willy, for the link.

Can one of you Western brightlights explain to this ignorant, dominating Easterner why the Liberals lead in BC?