Harper & Quebec - Part II

[August1991]

This goes back to the cultural cuts and young offenders' proposals of the campaign, Harper's "separatist coalition" rhetoric of the parliamentary crisis, and the PMO putting it out that Brian Mulroney was no longer a member of the party he twice led to landslide victories as a favourite son of Quebec. Voters might not understand cap and trade in the climate change debate, but they understand cheap when they see it.

So, what is to be done for Harper to turn things around in Quebec? First, he should get new advisers on Quebec - the ones he's got cost him a majority in October, and created a tipping point with Quebec voters in December. It's amazing these people still have jobs.

But then, going back to what worked for him in the beginning, Harper might re-visit his "open federalism" speech of December 2005 in Quebec City, the one that led to his 10-seat breakthrough in the election of January 2006. Harper has actually delivered on some major promises of that speech, notably resolving the fiscal imbalance and creating a place for Quebec at UNESCO. As a bonus, there's Harper's resolution in the House recognizing Quebecers as a nation within a united Canada.

But there's one element of the Quebec City speech that's been unfulfilled, and it could prove very strategic in the event Harper chose to revisit it. And that's his promise to limit the federal spending power in areas of provincial jurisdiction unless a majority of provinces signed on to it.

L. Ian Macdonald

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IMV, Harper's key mistakes were the cuts to culture funding and proposed changes to the young offender act. These mistakes were like James Moore (federal culture minister) inability to identify Guy Laliberté while on Tout le monde en parle.

Harper will always be a foreigner in Quebec but he shouldn't be perceived as an ignorant or unsympathetic foreigner.

I frankly don't think that Harper's treatment of Mulroney or the Bloc have had anything to do with the fall in Tory popular support in Quebec. Mulroney just doesn't matter that much (except to L. Ian Macdonald) and a federalist Harper is expected to call Gilles Duceppe a separatist. It matters far more that Bernard Derome has criticized Harper about funding of Radio-Canada (not to be confused with the CBC).

I also don't agree with Macdonald blaming Harper's staff for these mistakes. (I'm reminded of the old argument about Stalin: He's a good guy but the people around him are evil.) The mistakes came from the top.

Nevertheless, Macdonald makes an extremely good point and a good suggestion. Stephen Harper's relationship with voters in Quebec is far from over. The idea of limiting federal spending would be good politics and good for the country.

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On a side point, Chantal Hébert has a good column today on why Ignatieff's EI election bluster is bad politics (at least in Quebec):

Not only does Gilles Duceppe currently have the capacity to out-organize and outspend the Liberals but his party has also owned the EI issue since a previous Liberal government introduced the rules over which Ignatieff is now threatening to plunge the country into a summer election.

If he does ride the EI battle horse into a campaign in Quebec, Ignatieff will effectively be shifting the focus away from the Conservative present and unto the Liberal past.

Federal politics in Quebec are usually a sideshow and in flux but at the moment, they are even more volatile than the markets. People are more interested in knowing whether Louise Harel will run for mayor of Montreal.

[jdobbin]

Harper will always be a foreigner in Quebec but he shouldn't be perceived as an ignorant or unsympathetic foreigner.

Seems the polls in Quebec indicate many in the province now have the view that Harper has a nasty streak and will attack the province at whim. In other words, he can't be trusted.

Even as he promises to limit federal spending, he will try change the criminal code, or end Radio Canada.

It is very likely why Harper has sunk in the polls.

[ToadBrother]

Seems the polls in Quebec indicate many in the province now have the view that Harper has a nasty streak and will attack the province at whim. In other words, he can't be trusted.

Even as he promises to limit federal spending, he will try change the criminal code, or end Radio Canada.

It is very likely why Harper has sunk in the polls.

I agree. I think the relationship is too poisoned now. I simply cannot see Quebec voting Tory while Harper is still around. Of course, with all the Western Separatists masquerading as Federalists in the Tory caucus, Harper may in fact have been in an impossible position; get friendly with Quebec, get votes, but alienate big chunks of the Reform Rump.

[Harry]

Duceppe is the most effective political leader in Canada, and Harper will be no match for him in Quebec.

Bloc Québécois launches Parlons Qc campaign theme

And also cast doubt of Harper’s insistence that he did not want this election, noting that the proposed Conservative family tax credit Harper has announced should have been in his budget last week.

“It’s strange that he didn’t say a word about that last week.” Duceppe said. “For a guy who did not want an election, it’s special.”

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Bloc+Qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9cois+launches+Parlons+campaign+theme/4515596/story.html

[wyly]

I agree. I think the relationship is too poisoned now. I simply cannot see Quebec voting Tory while Harper is still around. Of course, with all the Western Separatists masquerading as Federalists in the Tory caucus, Harper may in fact have been in an impossible position; get friendly with Quebec, get votes, but alienate big chunks of the Reform Rump.

but where else will the western separatists go, they're in a COALITION with the moderate conservatives..

[Harry]

Duceppe said today that for Harper, who said all that Harper did not want an election bs, why didn't Harper put all these goodies he is offering up now in the budget.

I think Duceppe is making a valid point.

Edited March 28, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

Duceppe said today that for Harper, who said he did not want an election bs, why didn't Harper put all these goodies he is offering up now in the budget.

I think Duceppe has a point.

To be fair to Harper on this point, he knew the Opposition were gunning for him for weeks. I suspect the budget we saw last week was just a grab bag tossed together and that there is a real budget sitting in the Finance Minister's office waiting for what everyone seems to view as a high likelihood of another Tory minority.

One could just as easily ask Duceppe why the Opposition didn't hold off on the confidence vote until the budget had been debated and the potential for changes was explored.

[Jack Weber]

To be fair to Harper on this point, he knew the Opposition were gunning for him for weeks. I suspect the budget we saw last week was just a grab bag tossed together and that there is a real budget sitting in the Finance Minister's office waiting for what everyone seems to view as a high likelihood of another Tory minority.

One could just as easily ask Duceppe why the Opposition didn't hold off on the confidence vote until the budget had been debated and the potential for changes was explored.

I'll bet there is a Harrisite budget waiting for all of us if Harper gets a majority...

Edited March 28, 2011 by Jack Weber

[ToadBrother]

I'll bet there is a Harrsite budget waiting for all of us if Harper gets a majority...

Maybe, though I'm thinking there is a budget Layton won't be able to refuse waiting there, just in case the Opposition gets the idea to topple the government upon Parliament's return after the election.

[Jack Weber]

Maybe, though I'm thinking there is a budget Layton won't be able to refuse waiting there, just in case the Opposition gets the idea to topple the government upon Parliament's return after the election.

Oh yeah...

They have their bases covered...

[Harry]

TB,

Harper did meet with Layton remember, several weeks prior to the budget.

Obviously Harper's approach, and let's not forget Harper was only a minority government leader was "It's Harper's way or the highway".

Harper had all the time in the world to negotiate a compromise budget but he choose to have an election instead.

Edited March 28, 2011 by Harry

[Scotty]

I agree. I think the relationship is too poisoned now. I simply cannot see Quebec voting Tory while Harper is still around. Of course, with all the Western Separatists masquerading as Federalists in the Tory caucus, Harper may in fact have been in an impossible position; get friendly with Quebec, get votes, but alienate big chunks of the Reform Rump.

Can you name these separatists?

[Scotty]

Duceppe is the most effective political leader in Canada, and Harper will be no match for him in Quebec.

Duceppe is French. Quebec will always and has always voted for the French guy over the English guy. Doesn't matter who the French guy is. Doesn't matter who the English guy is.

[Scotty]

Duceppe said today that for Harper, who said all that Harper did not want an election bs, why didn't Harper put all these goodies he is offering up now in the budget.

I think Duceppe is making a valid point.

Like what goodies?

[Harry]

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Harper+promises+break+families+with+children+eventually/4516093/story.html

And that's just today.

[bloodyminded]

but where else will the western separatists go, they're in a COALITION with the moderate conservatives..