Barack Obama = Premier Bob Rae

[August1991]

Agreed.....Obama is in a tough spot, having to rely on the very same "experts" who precipitated the collapse. Lawyers don't like to be in such a perdicament, and neither do presidents.

Among economists, there are basically two schools: 1. Rely on Bernanke and monetary policy (Lucas). 2. Spend (Krugman).

IOW, economists are thinking in macroeconomic terms. They are very uncomfortable with the Roubini nationalize-the-banks crowd except as moral hazard applies.

I sense that economists are like medical researchers in the early 1980s facing AIDS. They are using standard tools to figure out what appears to be a strange disease.

[Roubini is one of those people in the late 1970s who, by chance if that's the word, predicted that humanity would face a new cataclysm.]

Sorry August I was confusing you with Alta4ever my bad.

Punked, we all make errors. Bubbler has enshrined mine for posterity. Edited February 14, 2009 by August1991

[Oleg Bach]

Agreed.....Obama is in a tough spot, having to rely on the very same "experts" who precipitated the collapse. Lawyers don't like to be in such a perdicament, and neither do presidents.

Get new experts...but that won't happen - he picked out all of his supposed competators as his advisors and representatives internationally. It looks like once Obama got to the top he has to deal with the people who insist on staying on top - Yes Hillary - talking bout you girl.. and whats with the choda growing on yeh neck girl?

[bush_cheney2004]

....Economists are thinking in macroeconomic terms. They are very uncomfortable with the Roubini nationalize-the-banks crowd.

I propose that only psychologists have as spotty a record as economists. I don't know why their discipline doesn't have better metrics...in real time.

Such high paid guessing should at least be cloaked in better analysis.

Edited February 14, 2009 by bush_cheney2004

[msj]

[Roubini is one of those people in the late 1970s who predicted that humanity would face a new cataclysm.]

Lest anyone be mistaken, Roubini was not one of those people predicting that humanity would face a new cataclysm in the 1970's (or at least I haven't seen anything on this).

As for Roubini, well I think people should read/view him for themselves rather than rely on August's judgment (or lack thereof).

[msj]

...I don't know why their discipline doesn't have better metrics...in real time.

Such high paid guessing should at least be cloaked in better analysis.

Pardon my and but, really, for a guy who has just recently accepted the fact that the US is in a recession after being bombarded with quality analysis for most of 2008 on why the US was, in fact, in a recession during that time is just too funny.

Hoocoodanode?

[bush_cheney2004]

Pardon my and but, really, for a guy who has just recently accepted the fact that the US is in a recession after being bombarded with quality analysis for most of 2008 on why the US was, in fact, in a recession during that time is just too funny.

It's funny because their (and your) analyses only takes form after the fact....completely useless in dynamic systems.

You offered neither quality or quantity.....just guesses (from others).

Edited February 14, 2009 by bush_cheney2004

[Oleg Bach]

It's funny because their (and your) analyses only takes form after the fact....completely useless in dynamic systems.

You offered neither quality or quantity.....but lots of guesses (from others).

Are you sure you are not a politician? You could bluster forever...you never run out...even when others do. It's boardering on boring. "competely useless in dynamic systems" - hugh - all systems are dynamic! Bushy boy...time to expand and stop messing with this stuff....I mean look - you are funny and informative but...what's next - "hit the ground running in the think out of the box paradine dynamics?? Ok - say something funny before I shut down this blazid machine.

[msj]

It's funny because their (and your) analyses only takes form after the fact....completely useless in dynamic systems.

You offered neither quality or quantity.....just guesses (from others).

Educated guesses are better than the nonsense that you were spewing in defence of the recession deniers.

And that's the key - educated.

There were stats and there were people who, in real time, made credible arguments on why the recession deniers were wrong.

The recession deniers preferred to ignore the arguments (usually with nothing more than spittle and bluster) and, now in hindsight, call them lucky "guesses."

Denial is a funny thing. One hopes you move on to the next stage soon....

Edited February 14, 2009 by msj

[bush_cheney2004]

Are you sure you are not a politician? You could bluster forever...you never run out...even when others do. It's boardering on boring. "competely useless in dynamic systems" - hugh - all systems are dynamic!

Nope...that's why we also study "Statics". But more to the point, we've got posers pretending to know how many angels can dance on the head of a pin when they don't even know how (or where) to count. They debated at length about the pending "recession" when in reality the Old Woman In The Shoe's uterus fell to the floor.

Bushy boy...time to expand and stop messing with this stuff....I mean look - you are funny and informative but...what's next - "hit the ground running in the think out of the box paradine dynamics?? Ok - say something funny before I shut down this blazid machine.

I'm going to assume that you know the music bizzz...all the palms that need to be greased....and even factor in for the sleaze.....no surprises, right? Yet these Wall Street pinheads in Italian suits can't even figure it out AFTER it bites them in the ass.

Effing incredible......

Edited February 14, 2009 by bush_cheney2004

[bush_cheney2004]

Educated guesses are better than the nonsense that you were spewing in defence of the recession deniers.

And that's the key - educated.

Yeah...so "educated" that they completely missed the real calamity that lay ahead.

There were stats and there were people who, in real time, made credible arguments on why the recession deniers were wrong.

Nope...they hedged their bets...just as they always do.

The recession deniers preferred to ignore the arguments (usually with nothing more than spittle and bluster) and, now in hindsight, call them lucky "guesses."

"Recession" was and still is arbitrarily determined...that is the entire point. Meanwhile, back at the ranch...oh wait...there is no more ranch...it burned to the ground while they were predicting when the recession really started.

[msj]

Yeah...so "educated" that they completely missed the real calamity that lay ahead.

Nope...they hedged their bets...just as they always do.

"Recession" was and still is arbitrarily determined...that is the entire point. Meanwhile, back at the ranch...oh wait...there is no more ranch...it burned to the ground while they were predicting when the recession really started.

Wow, dude, you've got to give reality a try.

[bush_cheney2004]

Wow, dude, you've got to give reality a try.

Look everybody.....breaking news from the NBER in December 2008.....the recession is official!

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/econo...sion=2008120112

Wow...glad we nailed that in the nick of time.

Edited February 14, 2009 by bush_cheney2004

[msj]

Look everybody.....breaking news from the NBER in December 2008.....the recession is official!

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/econo...sion=2008120112

Wow...glad we nailed that in the nick of time.

Yep, announcing the recession that started in December 2007.

Some headline news there - this just in - the official organization for business cycles in the US is going to be conservative about announcing when the peak and trough begins.

Doesn't change the fact that people like those at Calculated Risk were predicting it to start in December 2007 and such people backed up why they thought so with solid arguments (for which you ignored throughout 2008).

Hell, even I, a layperson, estimated February 2008 way back in June of 2008 (you know, when you were still denying the recession).

But no, some must continue the denial to the bitter end.

Let's ignore all that evidence that was put up at the time and focus on the fact that the crowd (which includes you) got it wrong.

As usual, the crowd ignored the evidence and arguments made by Calculated Risk, Barry Ritholtz (the Big Picture), Nouriel Roubini and many others.

Then people like you have the nerve to complain about the "experts" getting it wrong.

Look in the mirror before making your accusations.

[bush_cheney2004]

....As usual, the crowd ignored the evidence and arguments made by Calculated Risk, Barry Ritholtz (the Big Picture), Nouriel Roubini and many others.

Then people like you have the nerve to complain about the "experts" getting it wrong.

Look in the mirror before making your accusations.

You still don't get it....while wasting bandwidth arguing about when the recession started and how long it would last, they completely missed a much more important event.

DUH !

[msj]

You still don't get it....while wasting bandwidth arguing about when the recession started and how long it would last, they completely missed a much more important event.

DUH !

And, once again, dude, give reality a chance.

[bush_cheney2004]

And, once again, dude, give reality a chance.

As always, reality will take care of itself...with or without "economic experts" (and wannabes).

[msj]

As always, reality will take care of itself...with or without "economic experts" (and wannabes).

Surely reality always takes care of itself... with or without the decriers of the "nation of whiners" and their roadie recession deniers.

[bush_cheney2004]

Surely reality always takes care of itself... with or without the decriers of the "nation of whiners" and their roadie recession deniers.

There is no recession.....it's a Depression!

[Oleg Bach]

There is no recession.....it's a Depression!

Don't feel depressed...do you? Anybody who lets money rule their very lives deserve to be depressed and they must not know the value of life -----JUMP! YeP take a flying frinking fearless leap into your gods money filled hands - maybe if the pile of loot is big enough it will break your fall - have faith in the buck my buddies --- trust it - believe in it - believe that the federal reserve is actually federal and not some huge bank account that you are forced to deposit in but can never with draw from...Check into the Hotel California and know you can never leave because you trusted those that were not trust worthy - just because someone has a load of cash does not make them good,powerful or something to be idolized. You are either rich or you are not and money is of no consequence. Poor is not forever - nor is rich.

[bush_cheney2004]

..... You are either rich or you are not and money is of no consequence. Poor is not forever - nor is rich.

I prefer to be a king amongst paupers rather than a pauper amongst kings. Once the basic hierarchy of needs (Maslow) are met, everything else is just gravy.

Somebody just tipped over the gravy bowl !!

[Oleg Bach]

I prefer to be a king amongst paupers rather than a pauper amongst kings. Once the basic hierarchy of needs (Maslow) are met, everything else is just gravy.

Somebody just tipped over the gravy bowl !!

Exactly - you see obliviousness amongst most of the population - they are really not here in the moment and they constantly bump into things in the real material world...gravey bowls included. Awareness is key. You must see everything, hear everything and feel it all...dellusionism is a disease that effects the poor as well as the rich...but we never accuse a rich person of being nuts because he just might get preturbed and give you NOTHING....it's ironic that most people suck up to the rich and powerful actually believing that they will get something ----" You are but a dog under the masters table waiting for a crumb to fall" _ the rich eat all the crumbs so you are shit out of luck if you are a lacky....plus those ready to betray their own fellows on behalf of tyrants will NOT be rewarded ---- they will say ----"Hey buddy - you are not loyal to your own - so how are you going to be loyal to us - now scram"...

[August1991]

Doesn't change the fact that people like those at Calculated Risk were predicting it to start in December 2007 and such people backed up why they thought so with solid arguments (for which you ignored throughout 2008).

Calculated Risk and Roubini have been predicting a recession for the last five or six years or so. (I compared Roubini to people like Dennis Meadows who, in the 1970s, was predicting an impending resource cataclysm.

msj, you know the joke: Roubini has predicted accurately 5 of the past 3 recessions.

All markets are subject to speculative bubbles and financial markets prone to panics. The rationality assumption applies to individual behaviour - not group behaviour. There are many situations where individual rational behaviour leads to irrational aggregate (collective) behaviour. Indeed, markets are usually a way to overcome such situations.

The US suffered a housing market bubble and now must deal with the effects of the bubble's collapse on its financial system.

After every collapsed bubble, there are usually many people who claim to have predicted its collapse. If only it were true. Markets are stable when people recognize a bubble before it starts.

[Oleg Bach]

Remembering in the early 80's standing on a subway platform and watching one of those blinky signs scroll along...It said "Recession expected." So I said to naive me...How would they know? It did make me feel as if they were conditioning the public to screw them as painlessly as possible...It was like saying - we will be poor tomorrow so be prepared to be robbed and not think of it as a theft..but a recession. Hey someone took the money - It does not just disappear.