Canada's Impending Constitutional Crisis

[jdobbin]

Angus Reid CTV Poll:

The coalition is ahead....but the county is very divided.

The actual poll numbers:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Slightly more than a third of Canadians said they would support a coalition government formed by the opposition, when asked about their preferred solution if the government falls:

* Opposition coalition: 37 per cent

* Holding a federal election: 32 per cent

* No sure: 24 per cent

* Allowing the opposition to run by accord: 7 per cent

If the opposition ran the House of Commons by accord, it would mean one ruling party with the support of one or more parties who do not have MPs with cabinet posts.

[Slim MacSquinty]

64% do not want Dion

About the same are not comfortable with BQ in the mix.

Clearly lots more to this poll as the number don't exactly add up, must have been plenty of I don't knows as totals on the first two questions are about 70%.

Another interesting point is that apparently Dion is already handing out senate appointments.

[johhny]

A senior Conservative source told Sun Media the government will ask Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean to prorogue Parliament until the new year.

Seems Harpers best interest is not in the country, budget or working with parliment

[bluegreen]

And if the GG approves the coalition and Harper objects he will throw us into an unrecoverable position and a constitutional crisis that could last for years.

I think the reality is that when the GG decides what to do, it is final. If Harper wants to take it to the Queen, then the decision of the GG will stay until such time as the Queen makes a move. Either way Harper will be doomed.

I would say again that Harper was given a mandate in the last election to "lead" the country. That includes asking the opposition to move on legislation and to compromise to achieve that end. The electorate did not give Harper or the Conservatives the right to "govern". Only a majority has that right. So his attempts to bully his way through this next session are really the beginning of an end for him.

His only saving act would be to make a deal with the Liberals to keep this parliament going as is. It would take a huge drop in his ego to achieve it but I believe it is about the only way that this country can survive the present crisis it is in.

I disagree with your fist point. The GG is bound by convention, as is the Queen. Her 'decision' will be made by legal advisers, based on convention.

For the rest, it is too late for the Conservatives in this 40'th Parliament. The country will survive just fine. It's a political crisis of the first magnitude, but not a constitutional crisis.

[johhny]

I disagree with your fist point. The GG is bound by convention, as is the Queen. Her 'decision' will be made by legal advisers, based on convention.

For the rest, it is too late for the Conservatives in this 40'th Parliament. The country will survive just fine. It's a political crisis of the first magnitude, but not a constitutional crisis.

I would consider the PM not wanting to do his job a crisis. Why do we even have a PM again?

[CanadianBacon]

The GG has to think about the future implications.

This is why I will be surprised if she doesn't allow the coalition because that is how the system is suppose to work. To do otherwise would create a constitutional crisis.

Whether the Bloc is in the coalition or not is not valid point in any arguement. You can't decide to allow or not allow a coalition based on who is in it each time this occurs in the future.

I assume the coalition will go through and then it will be up to the coalition to show they can function. If it proves a disaster, a new election will be forced and the 3 parties will look like idiots and a conservative majority will result in the next election.

[daniel]

The only crisis is the Harper Government stalling progress when there's an economic crisis and recession going on. The coalition side already has a plan that includes at least 18 months of stability. The Harper government doesn't have one and is more concerned with hanging onto power.

And with Harper, you'll never know when he'll pull the plug again and call another election.

[johhny]

The only crisis is the Harper Government stalling progress when there's an economic crisis and recession going on. The coalition side already has a plan that includes at least 18 months of stability. The Harper government doesn't have one and is more concerned with hanging onto power.

And with Harper, you'll never know when he'll pull the plug again and call another election.

Reason we should never trust another conservative government

[bluegreen]

The actual poll numbers:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Thanks for the link jdobbin , I've been dying to see poll numbers. The problem is that this poll is online. The last election showed just how crappy and unreliable such polls are. I'll grant it's probably broadly indicative. Divided country indeed, with enormous 'don't know' respondents. The CPC will now kick into gear with bigtime advertising, to take advantage of that whopping 24%. No problem funding it with issue based donations from the Alberta heartland. I bet they raise $10mm this week. They will win the air war hands down.

[jdobbin]

Another interesting point is that apparently Dion is already handing out senate appointments.

Harper certainly left enough vacancies to fill.

[bluegreen]

Harper certainly left enough vacancies to fill.

Ha Ha! I predict that he will abandon this principle pretty damn quick now! I suppose you have read that Elizabeth May might be in line for a Senate appointment? (Obviously to clear the way for a cabinet post) I'm a GPC supporter, but sweet jesus, what a mess! It seems that nobody can keep their feet on the ground anymore. I was feeling smug about the GPC's prospects from all this mess ( and I confess worried about Canada), but now even the level headed Liz has lost her mind.

[blueblood]

Thanks for the link jdobbin , I've been dying to see poll numbers. The problem is that this poll is online. The last election showed just how crappy and unreliable such polls are. I'll grant it's probably broadly indicative. Divided country indeed, with enormous 'don't know' respondents. The CPC will now kick into gear with bigtime advertising, to take advantage of that whopping 24%. No problem funding it with issue based donations from the Alberta heartland. I bet they raise $10mm this week. They will win the air war hands down.

The TV ads are already made! I like how they have the recording of Dion saying we will not form a coalition gov't!

[Smallc]

Thanks for the link jdobbin , I've been dying to see poll numbers. The problem is that this poll is online. The last election showed just how crappy and unreliable such polls are.

Ummm, Angus Reid was closest to correct for the 2008 election.

[bluegreen]

Ummm, Angus Reid was closest to correct for the 2008 election.

doesn't change the fact that online polls cannot conceivably reflect the population. I sell to rural and older demographic, and you'd be amazed how many aren't even online

[Smallc]

I sell to rural and older demographic, and you'd be amazed how many aren't even online

I realize that, but Angus Reid has data on all their users and is more able to create a proper representative sample because of that.

[August1991]

Whether there is a motion of no-confidence or not,I do not think that there will be a crisis if she refuses the Prime Ministers request to dissolve Parliament and call an election for one simple reason. The government is in the minority, and the GG would have every reason to believe that an alternate government could be formed that would enjoy the confidence of the house. This obviates the need for an election. There were not one, but two quite recent elections, and there is definitely an alternative to an election. Please remember that we are talking about the very first moments of government here.

I tend to agree too that she will consent to a prorogation if Harper requests it. Quite apart from the tradition of respecting the PM's request, it makes sense for everyone to take a breather.

But this only puts the question off to a later date. Now, in late January after presenting a budget, if the government is defeated, what will she do? She could ask Dion to form a government but what if Harper explicitly asks for elections?

It is rare when a PM and a GG disagree publicly and that would be a constitutional crisis.

Whatever happens, I believe that bringing the personal circumstances of the GG into the discussion is inflamatory, incidental, and somewhat slanderous. I doubt that she would take the guardianship role she holds lightly. Her position exists solely for the purpose of doing the right thing in this, and like circumstances, and I am prepared to believe she will do right by her adopted country.

I disagree. Like it or not, we live in a democracy. After all is said and done, the court of public opinion is the ultimate judge.

The personality and gravity of the Governor-General will weigh in the balance. Jean is basically unknown in English Canada and she's known as TV journalist in Quebec. Her nomination was exceptionally controversial in both English and French Canada. It appears that she was chosen because she is attractive and she's PC.

Unlike someone who has a established reputation or specialized experience, Jean has no way to shift public opinion if she makes a controversial decision.

-----

These are all hypothetical scenarios that may never come to pass.

[bluegreen]

The TV ads are already made! I like how they have the recording of Dion saying we will not form a coalition gov't!

Isn't it wonderful how money + soundbites are more important than substantial debate in politics? Please tell me thatthis bothers you, at least a bit.

[bluegreen]

But this only puts the question off to a later date. Now, in late January after presenting a budget, if the government is defeated, what will she do? She could ask Dion to form a government but what if Harper explicitly asks for elections?

It is rare when a PM and a GG disagree publicly and that would be a constitutional crisis.

I disagree. Like it or not, we live in a democracy. After all is said and done, the court of public opinion is the ultimate judge.

The personality and gravity of the Governor-General will weigh in the balance. Jean is basically unknown in English Canada and she's known as TV journalist in Quebec. Her nomination was exceptionally controversial in both English and French Canada. It appears that she was chosen because she is attractive and she's PC.

Unlike someone who has a established reputation or specialized experience, Jean has no way to shift public opinion if she makes a controversial decision.

-----

These are all hypothetical scenarios that may never come to pass.

I remember Trudea asking for an election, and being turned told to go back to the house, and make it work. It raised some eyebrows, but was accepted by all. Harpers reactions will determine if it becomes a crisis at that juncture. Who cares why she was chosen? The question will be, 'has she discharged her duties with propriety?'

I agree however that the political consequences render most of these hypothetical scenarios unlikely.

[blueblood]

Isn't it wonderful how money + soundbites are more important than substantial debate in politics? Please tell me thatthis bothers you, at least a bit.

not in the least. Don't bring a knife to a gun fight!

[bluegreen]

not in the least. Don't bring a knife to a gun fight!

Hmm. You didn't credit Sean Connery for your sound bite, and you misquoted him. The actual quote is 'Typical Wop; bringing a knife to a gun fight'

To your' point, I guess if you don't have any compelling ideas, then why not throw some BS and $$ into the mix?

Your comment is also a perfect postscript to the CPC no-holds-barred attitude that started this whole friggin mess. Look how well it worked last Wednesday. If public service, and our common interests never influence your chosen party's actions, what is the point of being in politics? Is it strictly to serve your' parochial interests? Will you seize your' moment at the trough, by fair means or foul? By all means, bring a shotgun to a knife fight, but don't be surprised when it ultiumately leaves you screwed, as Harper is now learning.

[August1991]

I remember Trudea asking for an election, and being turned told to go back to the house, and make it work.

Trudeau managed a minority government between 1972-74 and I don't recall that ever happening.

OTOH, Trudeau intended to amend unilaterally the constitution and some of the provinces contested him. The Supreme Court ruled that we had no defined amending formula (except passing an act through the British parliament) so legally Trudeau could do this but it also stated that Trudeau should seek some political consensus among the provinces before asking Britain to change the BNA Act.

[blueblood]

Hmm. You didn't credit Sean Connery for your sound bite, and you misquoted him. The actual quote is 'Typical Wop; bringing a knife to a gun fight'

To your' point, I guess if you don't have any compelling ideas, then why not throw some BS and $$ into the mix?

Your comment is also a perfect postscript to the CPC no-holds-barred attitude that started this whole friggin mess. Look how well it worked last Wednesday. If public service, and our common interests never influence your chosen party's actions, what is the point of being in politics? Is it strictly to serve your' parochial interests? Will you seize your' moment at the trough, by fair means or foul? By all means, bring a shotgun to a knife fight, but don't be surprised when it ultiumately leaves you screwed, as Harper is now learning.

Tory Brass is sitting pretty right now. Next election has enough ammo to sink the LPC, NDP, and Bloc. harper's tactics are working quite well, the canadian populace is in an uproar!

[johhny]

Tory Brass is sitting pretty right now. Next election has enough ammo to sink the LPC, NDP, and Bloc. harper's tactics are working quite well, the canadian populace is in an uproar!

only in Alberta

[August1991]

Your comment is also a perfect postscript to the CPC no-holds-barred attitude that started this whole friggin mess. Look how well it worked last Wednesday. If public service, and our common interests never influence your chosen party's actions, what is the point of being in politics?

And who says that this bizarre coalition reflects "common interests"? You? On what authority?

----

At its heart, this whole "crisis" apparently started because the Bloc was going to lose its $1.95 subsidy. Faced with such a prospect, Layton offered a way out.

Now then, is it in the "common interest" for political parties to depend on taxpayer's money?

----

I am always suspicion when people throw around terms like the "public good" or the "common interest". Usually, they are simply disguising their own particular interest in loftier chintz.

[johhny]

And who says that this bizarre coalition reflects "common interests"? You? On what authority?

----

At its heart, this whole "crisis" apparently started because the Bloc was going to lose its $1.95 subsidy. Faced with such a prospect, Layton offered a way out.

Now then, is it in the "common interest" for political parties to depend on taxpayer's money?

----

I am always suspicion when people throw around terms like the "public good" or the "common interest". Usually, they are simply disguising their own particular interest in loftier chintz.

Canadians do suport the coalition and since they hold a majority it is time for you to sit down and listen to BIG DADDY DION