Conservative Irony

[BigGunner]

I'm confused with the conservative party. They have supposedly expanded their membership to nearly 250,000 they are on the verge of selecting Harper as leader, yet their polling numbers suggest that they will lose seats.

The only party that has seen a gain in the polls since 2000 is Jack Layton's NDP.

Heres a G&M article that indicates that Harper nearly has it in the bag.. click here

[Kiraly]

Not confusing at all.

The Conservative Party polling low in between elections should not be surprising.

The Canadian Alliance also polled lowed in between elections.

Once a leader is chosen, and an election is called, and the campaign begins, have no fear, the numbers will change.

[Dennis]

How do the polling numbers suggest they will lose seats?

They suggest they're on the verge of some kind of breakthrough in Ontario, they'll at least hold on to their current seats in the West, and maybe even in the Atlantic.

If that happens, that's upwards of 120 seats or so.

(70 in West, 30 in Ontario, 20 in Atlantic).

If anything, with all this hype surrounding a Layton surge for the NDP, they may well pick up in the general polling numbers yet lose out on seat pick-ups, just as the PCs often did, since the support for both those parties tends to lack regionalization.

For example, Bloc support is at about 8% nationwide but they could get up to 50 seats or so.

So, I don't know where BigGunner's confusion lies.

I hope this helps him out in some way.

[maplesyrup]

Canada will have to get a bigger house of Commons to accommodate all those extra seats being forecast.

[BigGunner]

How do the polling numbers suggest they will lose seats?

They suggest they're on the verge of some kind of breakthrough in Ontario, they'll at least hold on to their current seats in the West, and maybe even in the Atlantic.

If that happens, that's upwards of 120 seats or so.

(70 in West, 30 in Ontario, 20 in Atlantic).

If anything, with all this hype surrounding a Layton surge for the NDP, they may well pick up in the general polling numbers yet lose out on seat pick-ups, just as the PCs often did, since the support for both those parties tends to lack regionalization.

For example, Bloc support is at about 8% nationwide but they could get up to 50 seats or so.

So, I don't know where BigGunner's confusion lies.

I hope this helps him out in some way.

The Alliance party in 2000 scored its largest group of MP's from BC. Today, they are polling in third place behind the NDP. In 2000, they had 50% of the vote - whereas today it sits at 27%.

In fact, the conservative party is well behind its polling numbers when it was known as alliance, all over the west. Only in Alberta are they equal today to what they scored in 2000.

Conservative 'gains', if any, will be in Ontario. But there again, the NDP has recovered somewhat and is in the 15-20% range province wide, but well ahead in its target ridings.

Look for conservative losses in the west to the NDP; limited conservative gains in Ontario at the expense of the Liberals; complete shut out in Quebec; conservative losses in the maritimes to both the NDP and Liberals.

[Dennis]

Look for conservative losses in the west to the NDP; limited conservative gains in Ontario at the expense of the Liberals; complete shut out in Quebec; conservative losses in the maritimes to both the NDP and Liberals.

Yes, the NDP is just a juggernaut the Conservatives should be shaking over.

The numbers for the NDP have stalled nationally. Despite scandal, they're no higher than about 17% in most of the polls.

And, if you want to go by current polls, the Conservatives are at over 30% in Atlantic Canada, well ahead of the NDP. The same goes for Ontario. So I don't know where the pickups you mentioned come from for the NDP, especially in Atlantic Canada.

Furthermore, the Conservatives are clearly being established as the alternative government-in-waiting, which they they always were before the split. This most likely will mean that those who want the Liberals out will go Conservative, not NDP, especially since the latter is running as a hard-Left option.

They don't have a leader, they don't have a platform, they don't yet have a track-record, yet they poll at almost 30% nationally. My guess these numbers can only get better.

Kanada Dry is right. Numbers for the Alliance always dipped between elections, for a number of reasons. This may well be happening in regions such as BC and the prairies.

For some reaon, I just have a hard time believing Layton will pick up large numbers of seats in any of those regions.

But, of course, that not an unbiased assessment.