Incrementalism? Why Harper is a loser tonight

[August1991]

The Conservatives won 36.27% of the vote in 2006.

In 2008, they've won 37.45% (so far). That's an increase of about 1%.

In Quebec, the Conservatives won 24.6% in 2006 and 21.75% in 2008.

Without Quebec, the Conservatives will never be a national party and they will not get the critical support in Ontario. Call this Canada's Quebec leveraged federal system.

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Harper faced arguably the weakest Liberal leader ever. He faced a divided opposition. Harper has had the opportunity to build up goodwill, a reputation and confidence over the two years or so. He didn't get a majority.

Harper simply will not face such an ideal situation the next time out.

Anyway, no one wants an election any time soon and Canada's politicians are going to face in all likelihood difficult times.

[jdobbin]

Anyway, no one wants an election any time soon and Canada's politicians are going to face in all likelihood difficult times.

And yet Harper said he will make bills confidence measures even when they are not money bills. You don't think we headed into an election? Do you think Harper will wait for a new Liberal leader?

[August1991]

And yet Harper said he will make bills confidence measures even when they are not money bills. You don't think we headed into an election? Do you think Harper will wait for a new Liberal leader?

Harper will not call an election any time soon.

When the Liberals pick their new leader (I'd pick Ignatieff at this time), then they'll pull the plug quickly. Ignatieff is right wing but he's acceptable in Quebec.

If Harper can't win a majority against Dion and can bungle so badly his campaign, he won't be able to face a more formidable opponent.

[jdobbin]

Harper will not call an election any time soon.

When the Liberals pick their new leader (I'd pick Ignatieff at this time), then they'll pull the plug quickly. Ignatieff is right wing but he's acceptable in Quebec.

Do you think Harper will wait? It doesn't seem in his nature.

If Harper can't win a majority against Dion and can bungle so badly his campaign, he won't be able to face a more formidable opponent.

It seems he missed his chance to massively win the election. He might look to take the Liberals down before they are in a position to challenge him.

[Visionseeker]

The Conservatives won 36.27% of the vote in 2006.

In 2008, they've won 37.45% (so far). That's an increase of about 1%.

In Quebec, the Conservatives won 24.6% in 2006 and 21.75% in 2008.

Without Quebec, the Conservatives will never be a national party and they will not get the critical support in Ontario. Call this Canada's Quebec leveraged federal system.

-----

Harper faced arguably the weakest Liberal leader ever. He faced a divided opposition. Harper has had the opportunity to build up goodwill, a reputation and confidence over the two years or so. He didn't get a majority.

Harper simply will not face such an ideal situation the next time out.

Anyway, no one wants an election any time soon and Canada's politicians are going to face in all likelihood difficult times.

Harper did have the perfect conditions to win a majority, and while he came close, he again failed.

But as PM, he could again shift his allegiences and use the federal treasury to favour Charest in anticipation of a provicial contest in Quebec. But that would probably prove to be one flop too many in la belle province.

Harper may be the strongest leader amoungst our meek ballot, but that doesn't mean he isn't meek himself.

I predict another election in May or June 2009.

[Visionseeker]

Harper will not call an election any time soon.

When the Liberals pick their new leader (I'd pick Ignatieff at this time), then they'll pull the plug quickly. Ignatieff is right wing but he's acceptable in Quebec.

If Harper can't win a majority against Dion and can bungle so badly his campaign, he won't be able to face a more formidable opponent.

I don't think the Liberals have the luxury of changing leaders. A contest would only sap money and leave the party divided left/centre. No, here the conventional wisdom is simply all wrong. Like it or not, Dion is the Liberal leader and will remain so in the immediate and middle term.

But I agree that Harper is a liability on the majority score. He did well in Ontario thanks to vote spliting. But in the shorter run, he has to preside over a serious recession in the coming months. And that just won't play well.

Harper is done before Dion. That remains my prediction.

[TCCK]

He did well in Ontario thanks to vote spliting. But in the shorter run, he has to preside over a serious recession in the coming months. And that just won't play well.

Harper is done before Dion. That remains my prediction.

No Harper did well in Ontario because Dion is a lame leader for the Liberals and the people saw it. Dion will be gone in a month or so, I PREDICT HARPER WILL BE AROUND FOR YEARS AND YEARS TO COME!!!

I am glad Harper is in charge (to the extent people let him be), he will handle the "recession" problems with isdom and a sound head not fear mongering like the NDP and Liberals wanted to do.

[normanchateau]

I PREDICT HARPER WILL BE AROUND FOR YEARS AND YEARS TO COME!!!

I hope you're right. The best way to prevent a CPC majority is to retain Harper as leader. A social conservative like Harper is the perfect target for the next Liberal leader who I hope, unlike Dion, will pull no punches.

[Bryan]

I PREDICT HARPER WILL BE AROUND FOR YEARS AND YEARS TO COME!!!

Of course he will. He had four opposition parties and all major media outlets demonizing him in unison for five weeks, and he still ends up with 20 MORE seats. His 'steady as she goes' approach has gradually increased seats in every election, and will continue to do so.

[Riverwind]

Harper faced arguably the weakest Liberal leader ever. He faced a divided opposition. Harper has had the opportunity to build up goodwill, a reputation and confidence over the two years or so. He didn't get a majority.

The electorate is rediculously fickle - especially in Quebec. The errors Harper made on explaining the culture cuts or the youth justice law were minor yet they were enough cost him significant support in Quebec.

I don't see how any leader of a federal party could do any better.

Frankly, Harper should be glad that Quebec electorate showed their colours before the election. If he had won a majority he might have been tempted to assume that his support in Quebec was deeper than it is and made similar mistakes that would result in the conservatives losing big time 4 years. With the minority he will have to be more careful and should have learned his lessons.

With such an electorate incrementalism is the only thing that could possibly work.

If the Liberal's dumped Dion and swing the to right with someone like Ignatiaff then Harper would be in trouble but it is not clear that will happen.

[AngusThermopyle]

Harper is the perfect target for the next Liberal leader who I hope, unlike Dion, will pull no punches.

I wouldn't call airing adds that showed Jack Booted soldiers marching "pulling punches".

[Topaz]

I knew it was going to be a minority government just wasn't sure who would have it. Now the problems this government faces and what he is going to do about them. In Ontario, manufacturing is still losing and more US companies are pulling out and going to the US or Mexico. Alot of the problem for the auto sector could be solved if the government would bring back the Auto Pact, you want to sell here, you make it here. I don't think Harper cares enough and the newly backbenchers will learn they have no power for their area to do anything about it. EI is going to be shrinking with the unemployed. Losing one job that supported a mortgage, only to be retrained for Timmy's will find alot people in trouble and maybe losing their homes. I think even though Harper says he won't carry a debt, I think he may have to have one, there's an expensive war going on and with high unemployment in parts of Canada, he doesn't have the income coming which is were the Feds. get their revenue from. BTW, I still think the Cons should pay for this election, for those who didn't vote, and those who voted for Cons, you are the reason Canada will get what it gets from this government like it or not.

[TOhasCLASS]

Behind the scenes Harper must be seething .... he was so focused and sure of his majority that he spent 300 million dollars on an election that we did not want .... voter turnout was at an all time low and the Liberals had a weak candidate. I for one will be pissed if he calls an election within the year. That will be a half a billion dollars of taxpayer money thrown away for his own personal agenda when the voting public is saying get to work we don't fully trust you. (makes sponsership look like spare change)

If Harper couldn't make things work last minority ..... watch him this go around ........ he will be at his testy best.

Actually I am more than happy with how things worked out .... we get rid of Dion and Harper is forced to work in an environment he absolutley loaths. It forces Harper to compromise and negotiate and he will be miserable (some have even said he may resign .. which I doubt)

Control freaks are most agitated when the have to compromise and concede things. If Dion had have won a minority Harper would have got of easy .... he could have quit and done his own thing however now he is caged in and will be forced to sit through a few more years of the worst case scenario. PS - if Harper calls an election any time soon he will feel the wrath of the voting public.

[Riverwind]

Behind the scenes Harper must be seething

Why? He won and he knows why he lost the Quebec vote. I would expect to see the Tories to take a much more positive stance on culture funding.

I for one will be pissed if he calls an election within the year.

He won't nor will the opposition parties. The BQ, in particular, has nothing to gain by an election. They cannot really expand their seat count and soveriegnty is on the back burner.

If Harper couldn't make things work last minority ..... watch him this go around ........ he will be at his testy best.

It takes two to tango. The opposition parties have to choose to work with the government. Before the election call the opposition parties wasted way too much time trying create scandals from nothing with things like the Shcriber or Cadman affairs.

[margrace]

It takes two to tango. The opposition parties have to choose to work with the government. Before the election call the opposition parties wasted way too much time trying create scandals from nothing with things like the Shcriber or Cadman affairs.

Yes it does and Harper is an out and out Bullie, proven in his last term. He made almost every vote a vote against his gov't thereby calling an election and the things he did get through he refused to discuss when it went to committee, having his reps block any discussion by walking out. Do you think Canadians are this dumb?>

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Harper will in fact act as if he has a majority and play upon the oppositions disorganized approach. Harper will force all kinds of votes. That is his trademark, he wants to govern.

[scribblet]

The electorate is rediculously fickle - especially in Quebec. The errors Harper made on explaining the culture cuts or the youth justice law were minor yet they were enough cost him significant support in Quebec.

I don't see how any leader of a federal party could do any better.

Frankly, Harper should be glad that Quebec electorate showed their colours before the election. If he had won a majority he might have been tempted to assume that his support in Quebec was deeper than it is and made similar mistakes that would result in the conservatives losing big time 4 years. With the minority he will have to be more careful and should have learned his lessons.

With such an electorate incrementalism is the only thing that could possibly work.

If the Liberal's dumped Dion and swing the to right with someone like Ignatiaff then Harper would be in trouble but it is not clear that will happen.

They will worth together for a while, I predict another election in 2 years. Fortunately people now know that Harper is no social conservative, in fact the few social conservatives are very upset with him over his lack of support for their causes. Another couple of years

Agreed about the culture cuts as in fact, spending on culture actually went up. It seems to me there is a very unbalanced presentation of issues in the media as so many Canadians only hear the Liberal version of events (or only hear what they want to hear)

This reminds me of the 97 campaign when the liberals paraded around as the champions of health care after cutting health care & education transfer payments to the provinces by 40% between 1995 to 1997. The media forgets to tell us that bit.

Overall program spending on culture and arts is up 18.6 per cent. In other words, Conservatives have boosted spending on arts programs faster than they have boosted overall government spending.

• The Department of Canadian Heritage will spend $1.4 billion this year, up $273 million or 24.4 per cent compared to 2006.

• The Canada Council for the Arts will spend $181 million this year, up $30.3 million or 20.2 per cent.

• The National Arts Centre Corporation will spend nearly $50 million this year, up $18.3 million or nearly 60 per cent compared to the Liberals.

• The National Gallery of Canada will spend $53.3 million, up $8.8 million or nearly 20 per cent.

Having said that, I don't see why we should expect the taxpayers to spend any additional money on arts funding, if we want it, we should support it ourselves and not expect others to foot the bill.

[scribblet]

Yes it does and Harper is an out and out Bullie,>

LOL that is funny, I find it strange that some people do not seem to want a strong leader, unless of course they only want a strong leader when it is a Liberal or an NDP leader. I always thought strong leadership qualities were desirable in a leader.

[Argus]

Why? He won and he knows why he lost the Quebec vote. I would expect to see the Tories to take a much more positive stance on culture funding.

They DID take a much more positive stance on culture funding over the last two years, and the arts community responded with an all out campaign against him. I am anticipating big cuts in arts funding this time around, probably with his first budget.

It takes two to tango. The opposition parties have to choose to work with the government. Before the election call the opposition parties wasted way too much time trying create scandals from nothing with things like the Shcriber or Cadman affairs.

That will continue, but for the next year anyway, Harper will be able to force through just about anything he wants as the Liberals will be nearly bankrupt and in dissaray.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

They DID take a much more positive stance on culture funding over the last two years, and the arts community responded with an all out campaign against him. I am anticipating big cuts in arts funding this time around, probably with his first budget.

That will continue, but for the next year anyway, Harper will be able to force through just about anything he wants as the Liberals will be nearly bankrupt and in dissaray.

You are very astute. This will go on until Dion gets the boot. Then expect a confidence motion and subsequent election.

[independent]

Harper will in fact act as if he has a majority and play upon the oppositions disorganized approach. Harper will force all kinds of votes. That is his trademark, he wants to govern.

The election has pushed the Liberals deeply in debt. They will have no choice but to cooperate. That will leave Harper too run very close to a majority government.

Layton has come out very strongly that he wants to be the Prime Minister and is winning more and more support. He will have the opportunity to act like the real opposition.

Harper needs to impress. He cannot run a deficit. He has to keep the economy on track. He has to do something about crime. He has too keep all the regions of the country happy and not look like he is playing favorite. He has to keep his troops in line.

Any slip up and we go back to the polls. The Liberals will not be able to run an effective campaign. The NDP will be stronger than ever and get most of the protest vote.

It will not be outside the realm of possibility you could get a NDP minority government. The result will be higher taxes and heavy expenditures. The still reeling Liberals will not be able to do anything about it. The conservatives will have to go through a leadership race and that would become very interesting considering all the diverse personalities. Do the conservatives have any one that would able to hold that group together. The Liberals will continue to struggle with financial turmoil and their own leadership problems.

(Even though I dislike Harper) For the sake of the country Harper has too stay moderate. Keep all his Ideology out of politics.

If he continues with his hatred of the Liberal party. He will very likely destroy the Liberal party(make some people happy I am sure)but he could also destroy the Conservatives in the process.(The country can only stand so much dirty politics.)

Edited October 15, 2008 by independent

[August1991]

The electorate is rediculously fickle - especially in Quebec. The errors Harper made on explaining the culture cuts or the youth justice law were minor yet they were enough cost him significant support in Quebec.

I don't see how any leader of a federal party could do any better.

Frankly, Harper should be glad that Quebec electorate showed their colours before the election. If he had won a majority he might have been tempted to assume that his support in Quebec was deeper than it is and made similar mistakes that would result in the conservatives losing big time 4 years. With the minority he will have to be more careful and should have learned his lessons.

With such an electorate incrementalism is the only thing that could possibly work.

If the Liberal's dumped Dion and swing the to right with someone like Ignatiaff then Harper would be in trouble but it is not clear that will happen.

As Argus pointed out above, the Conservatives in fact increased spending on culture but their campaign was so poorly managed in Quebec that the message never got out - despite the Conservative's campaign budget. The same can be said about their policy on crime and youth offenders. Harper allowed Duceppe to control the agenda.

The Tories would never have made a similar mistake in Alberta, BC or Ontario. The basic message is that the Tories don't get Quebec.

I'm surprised that the Tories only lost one seat in Quebec. Their wins were really local victories.

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I know that Dion is stubborn and will try to hang on but I don't see how he can survive a leadership review. I also don't know how they can afford another leadership contest.

As I listened to Ignatieff being interviewed by Bernard Derome last night, it was plain to me that the election results would have been very different if he had been Liberal leader. It won't take long for many Liberals to come to the same conclusion.

I thought Harper had better political skills. This campaign has shown me otherwise.

[Riverwind]

The Tories would never have made a similar mistake in Alberta, BC or Ontario. The basic message is that the Tories don't get Quebec.

What the Tories need to do is attract Quebec talent that can teach them what they need to know. So far they have failed to do that.

I thought Harper had better political skills. This campaign has shown me otherwise.

He stepped in it by making that anti-eltist jibe about 'galas'. Other than that he handled things quite well considering that it was 4 against 1.

[cybercoma]

All this talk of Harper failure is amusing to me. He nearly won a majority, which has only been accomplished in the 20th century by Brian Mulroney. In those days, the PCs were not fractured off into Bloc Quebecois and Reform/Alliance. What's important about last night's victory is that Harper came damn close to a majority even though 50 seats went to the PC spinoff party of the Bloc Quebecois. For all intents and purposes, a Conservative majority last night would have been a monumental victory for Harper, since it was a near majority, his victory was near monumental.

Edited October 15, 2008 by cybercoma

[guyser]

All this talk of Harper failure is amusing to me. He nearly won a majority, which has only been accomplished in the 20th century by Brian Mulroney.

It was the Yankees (Harper) versus Local Junior School team (Dion). The score was 3-2 Yankees.

You fire the Yankee manager after that display.