2004 Federal Minority Government?

[theWatcher]

If the current siuation continues and the Liberals keep free falling in the polls, I was wondering which coalition would most likely form in the event of a minority goverment.

• Liberal, NDP
  
• Liberal, NDP, BLOC
  
• Conservative, BLOC
  
• Conservative, NDP
  
• Conservative, NDP, BLOC
  

This is my list in order of likelyhood depending on the seats that the Liberals and Conservatives get.

The Liberals have a long way to fall, and they can count on a minority coalition with the NDP as they have done in the past.

The NDP could conceivably choose between the Liberals or Conservatives if both end up with roughly the same number of seats. I wonder if they would automatically join with the Liberals or actually consider the Conservatives in light of recent events.

[maplesyrup]

If the Liberals don't think they can obtain a majority government, they could well delay the election.

It's tricky business entering into a coalition. A party can get burned. I have seen it happen that a party props up another for a year or two, while the bigger party rebuilds, and then the big party pulls the plug and gets reelected as a majority government.

Wish I knew how to take these party support percentages and transfer them into a projection of seats.

Once I have some sort of projection of probable seats, they I would comment on possible coalition.

[Pellaken]

the NDP wont work with either

the bloc will work with both

I dont see any coalitions, just a minority government where every issues needs 1 other party supporting it

[westcoast99]

I agree with Pell that it's unlikely we'll see any coalitions formed.

[theWatcher]

If no party gets a majority of seats then some form of coalition has to happen though.

If there are 308 federal seats then the magic number becomes 155.

If no party receives 155 then you can't form a government. So if the Liberals receive 150 seats then they need 5 more.

Would the NDP turn down a chance to become government? I am sure other parties would jump at the chance.

You can find an election forecaster here: 2004 Canadian Federal Election Forecaster

This next election will be very interesting.

[Goldie]

I believe the most logical coalition is the conservative party and the purple martins. I can't see Jack and paul holding hands anytime soon. I did see a wink between Harper and Martin after the vote on elected committees didn't go the governments way.

If Belinda wins expect a full blown marriage between these entities. Please see my conspiracy theory. Anyway it is going to take a bigger fall to halt the spring election till fall. You see the 2000 election numbers are( 40.8 lib) (26.8 CA) (12.2 pc) (8.8 NDP) so no real change.

Oh ya, Happy Valentines day you hosers. I hope you all sent Paul Martin a Little something to keep him in the fake indignation mode till the tulips bloom in Regina.