maplesyrup Posted February 7, 2004 Report Posted February 7, 2004 Now that Parliament has resumed and we are facing an election shortly, it might be fun to try our hand at forecasting the results. Here's mine, do you wish to share yours? My forecast: Alberta: 28 Bloc Con 20 Lib 8 NDP British Columbia: 36 Bloc Con 20 Lib 8 NDP 8 Manitoba: 14 Bloc Con 4 Lib 5 NDP 5 New Brunswick: 10 Bloc Con Lib 10 NDP Newfoundland and Labrador: 7 Bloc Con Lib 7 NDP Northwest Territories: 1 Bloc Con Lib NDP 1 Nova Scotia: 11 Bloc Con Lib 11 NDP Nunavut: 1 Bloc Con Lib NDP 1 Ontario: 106 Bloc Con 20 Lib 76 NDP 10 Prince Edward Island: 4 Bloc Con Lib 4 NDP Quebec: 75 Bloc 37 Con Lib 38 NDP Saskatchewan: 14 Bloc Con 4 Lib 5 NDP 5 Yukon: 1 Bloc Con 1 Lib NDP Canada: 308 (155 required for majority gov't) Bloc 37 Con 69 Lib 172 NDP 30 Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
Pellaken Posted February 7, 2004 Report Posted February 7, 2004 Newfoundland and Labrador: 7 Bloc Con Lib 10 NDP sorry, but all your numbers are way off man. I am doing a ribing-by-riding prediction, and will have numbers to you soon. Quote
Michael Hardner Posted February 7, 2004 Report Posted February 7, 2004 At this point, Liberal majority still seems likely but anything could happen. Here's a related thread: Dec 5 - Discussion of Prospects of the new CPC Quote Click to learn why Climate Change is caused by HUMANS Michael Hardner
Pellaken Posted February 9, 2004 Report Posted February 9, 2004 I have yet to do BC despite that, here are the numbers I have so far a note on how this was done. I went riding by riding, and picked who was going to win. but more importantly I picked (it will be close, and if they dont win, then ___ will win) so for example, in Lethbridge, I said the Tories would win, but the Libs will make a good show of it. Therefore, there is a maximum and minimum for each party along with my guess. If you want the individual ridings and who I said they'd go for, PM me. Ters: Lib 3 = 0-3 Con 0 = 0-1 NDP 0 = 0-1 BC not yet done AB Lib 6 = 3-9 Con 22 = 19-25 SK Lib 5 = 3-6 NDP 5 = 4-5 Con 4 = 3-7 MB Lib 6 = 4-8 NDP 4 = 4-5 Con 4 = 2-5 ON Lib 73 = 53-93 Con 18 = 7-30 NDP 15 = 5-24 PQ Lib 57 = 52-67 BQ 18 = 8-23 NB Lib 7 = 9-4 Con 2 = 1-5 NDP 1 = 0-1 NS Lib 6 = 3-8 Con 2 = 2-4 NDP 3 = 1-4 PE Lib 4 = 3-4 Con 0 = 0-1 NL Lib 5 = 3-6 Con 2 = 1-4 CANADA (without BC) Lib 172 = 130-213 Con 54 = 35-82 NDP 28 = 14-40 BQ 18 = 8-23 I will lessen the variance as the election draws closer. Quote
Pellaken Posted February 10, 2004 Report Posted February 10, 2004 I am moving the riding of Roberval from "Bloc will win, Libs may upset" to "Bloc will win no matter what" after finding out it's Micheal Gauthier's riding. hence, the Bloc's minimum is raised from 8 to 9 Quote
Michael Hardner Posted February 10, 2004 Report Posted February 10, 2004 This is some fairly in-depth work here, Pell. Any idea when you'll have the BC numbers as well ? Quote Click to learn why Climate Change is caused by HUMANS Michael Hardner
Pellaken Posted February 10, 2004 Report Posted February 10, 2004 it'll be a while, I have other projects I'm doing, both for and not for school Quote
Pellaken Posted February 16, 2004 Report Posted February 16, 2004 see, this is why I have maximums and minimums. for example, if the election were to be called today, I'd think the Liberals would get near the minimum. Quote
Slavik44 Posted February 17, 2004 Report Posted February 17, 2004 I think it is too soon to make an acurate prediction but I would have to say with the current "problems" going on.... Alberta: 28 Bloc Con 28 Lib 0 NDP British Columbia: 36 Bloc Con 25 Lib 2 NDP 9 Manitoba: 14 Bloc Con 5 Lib 3 NDP 6 New Brunswick: 10 Bloc Con 2 Lib 8 NDP Newfoundland and Labrador: 7 Bloc Con 2 Lib 3 NDP 2 Northwest Territories: 1 Bloc Con Lib 1 NDP Nova Scotia: 11 Bloc Con 6 Lib 4 NDP 1 Nunavut: 1 Bloc Con Lib 1 NDP Ontario: 106 Bloc Con 20 Lib 70 NDP 16 Prince Edward Island: 4 Bloc Con 1 Lib 2 NDP 1 Quebec: 75 Bloc 40 Con 3 Lib 31 NDP 1 Saskatchewan: 14 Bloc Con 5 Lib 2 NDP 7 Yukon: 1 Bloc Con 1 Lib NDP totals: Bloc: 40 Con: 95 Lib: 123 NDP: 43 well there you go...the CPC has gone up 16 seats since the last time I made my predictions...and the NDP has gone up 5, and the bloc has gone up 5, and nto to suprisingly the librals have gone down 26 seats in my books. Quote The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. - Ayn Rand --------- http://www.politicalcompass.org/ Economic Left/Right: 4.75 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.54 Last taken: May 23, 2007
theWatcher Posted February 17, 2004 Report Posted February 17, 2004 latest poll shows the Libs are still in freefall: Blech, it is not showing the image. Here's the numbers Liberals 35 CP 27 NDP 17 Bloc 11 Quote
maplesyrup Posted February 17, 2004 Author Report Posted February 17, 2004 In other words: Martin makes things worse "In an Ipsos-Reid poll completed for CTV after Prime Minister Paul Martin's weekend public relations blitz, results show the Liberals would only be able to count on 35 per cent of decided voters across the country." Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
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