Federal Liberals in Quebec: A Dysfunctional Family

[August1991]

I haven't seen any reports of this in the English press so I thought I'd post it here. One of the most active VPs in the Quebec wing of the federal Liberals giave an interview to La Presse in which he described that organization as dysfunctional. He asked Dion to intervene since the principal players aren't communicating:

Dans une entrevue exclusive accordée à La Presse, hier, l'un des vice-présidents les plus actifs du PLCQ, Steve Pinkus, a décrit le parti comme une «famille dysfonctionnelle» et appelé Stéphane Dion à intervenir de toute urgence.

Selon M. Pinkus, qui s'implique chez les libéraux depuis plus de 30 ans, le président du PLCQ, Robert Fragrasso, et la lieutenante du Québec, Céline Hervieux-Payette, sont engagés dans une guerre ouverte qui paralyse tout effort d'organisation.

Résultat: le parti se dirige tout droit vers la catastrophe, croit l'homme d'affaires. «On n'avance pas. Au contraire, on recule. Depuis un an, on recule», a-t-il lancé durant un long entretien téléphonique, hier après-midi.

La Presse

They may not have 75 candidates in Quebec for the general election and they cannot agree on who will run in PM PM's old riding.

The next day, we get a response from Hervieux-Payette claiming all is well. Really? I liked this quote:

Marc Bélanger, qui était à la base du mouvement de contestation contre M. Fragasso, a offert une brève réaction au témoignage de M. Pinkus: «Je salue le courage de mon collègue Steve Pinkus. Il n'y a personne de mieux placé que moi pour savoir ce qu'il en coûte de se lever debout pour faire avancer les choses dans un parti politique. Ce seront mes seuls commentaires là-dessus.»

La Presse

Internal Liberal politics always have the faint air of high school student council intrigues. Out of power, the Liberals simply don't know what to do. They're like Hollywood stars - all ego and no substance - screaming at their agent to get them back in a vehicle.

I think this contretemps is a symptom. À suivre.

-----

How much of an effect would a federal Liberal meltdown have on electoral results in Quebec? Who would benefit?

There are several really safe Liberal seats in west Montreal. Some (urban) could potentially go NDP. Some (suburban) could go Tory. Outside of Montreal, I think that it's fair to say that it will be largely a BQ/Conservative race.

In 2006, the BQ got 51, the Liberals got 13 and the Tories 10. The Liberals haven't got alot to lose but then I don't see them gaining. A collapse of the Liberal vote outside of Montreal would favour the Tories in some close ridings. To form a majority, Harper will have to win at least 10-15 more seats in Quebec (as well as 10-15 more seats elsewhere).

[Borg]

Lets all hope the left leaning libs stay disfunctional. It would do this country a world of good to have a majority Conservative government.

The block headed block party - sitting in a national parliament while representing only a region and therefore misrepresenting themselves - will have no effect on the rest of canada.

Wonderful times for the rest of canada.

Time for a change and as long as kebec and their home team(s) stay this way, canada will be far better off.

If we are lucky the media will ignore this one and that will benefit us all.

Borg

[Keepitsimple]

I'm not sure why this did not end up in print. There was a damning report on CBC's Don Newman and it was followed up with the "Press Gallery Pundits" later in the show. This particular edition of Politics was on Thursday, March 20th (Link below). At the time, the Quebec wing of the Liberal Party had called an "Emergency Meeting" to put forward a non-confidence vote in Robert Fragasso, the President of the Quebec wing. As far as I know, they were unsuccessful in deposing Mr. Fragasso but there was a lot of bloodletting. He was accused of not being a strong enough supporter of Stephane Dion but there was also disgust that there were nowhere near ready for an election in Quebec - apparently they have only named 40 candidates for the whole province. Anyway it's pretty bad......it's probably best that you watch the video....fast forward to about 7 min. 30 seconds for the initial interview with a quebec correspondent and then skip to about 40 min. 25 sec. to hear the Pundits. CBC said that this was a very serious situation and if CBC says it, it must be serious. Funny how it didn't make the print - not even the Post.

Link: http://www.cbc.ca/video/popup.html?http://...olitics_thu.wmv

[Borg]

I'm not sure why this did not end up in print.

Perhaps because outside of kebec and toronto no one really gives a damn.

Borg

[August1991]

Perhaps because outside of kebec and toronto no one really gives a damn.

If anyone is interested in federal politics, they should be acutely aware of this story. Why? Because if Stephen Harper wants to form a majority government, he will have to be acutely aware of this story.

Canadian federal politics are like Canada itself. Complicated.

[M.Dancer]

If anyone is interested in federal politics, they should be acutely aware of this story. Why? Because if Stephen Harper wants to form a majority government, he will have to be acutely aware of this story.

Canadian federal politics are like Canada itself. Complicated.

The Conservatives have every opportunity to gain in Quebec both in and out of Montreal. Anglophones voters especially in the west island are not so dyed in the wool liberal that they wouldn't vote Tory as they have in the past and as we know, outside of montreal there is dissatistfaction with the Bloc.

[eyeball]

The days of majority governments in Canada are likely behind us for a very long time thanks to the development of strictly regional parties like the BQ and PQ. Quebecers appear to like the way things have turned out, they now have two fronts from which they can pressure the federal government.

Proportional representation or coalitions are probably the only way Canada will see a true majority any time soon.

[August1991]

The days of majority governments in Canada are likely behind us for a very long time thanks to the development of strictly regional parties like the BQ and PQ. Quebecers appear to like the way things have turned out, they now have two fronts from which they can pressure the federal government.

There's some truth to that.

When Mulroney's coalition fell apart in 1993, it divided in such a way in English Canada (Reform/PC) that Chretien was able to form majorities until Harper put the coalition partly back together by 2004. Neither the Liberals nor the Tories can form a majority now.

In 2006, the popular votes in Quebec were BQ 42%, Cons 25% and Libs 21%. If the Liberals were to fall further, then there might be a few more riding splits that would favour the Tories. And if all went well, the Tories might gain a few votes from the BQ (outside Montreal). So at a maximum, the Tories might gain 10-15 seats in Quebec.

To form a majority, the Tories need about 35 or seats extra. Where can they get them? I dunno. Maybe Harper can pull an Obama and change the paradigm or something.

The Conservatives have every opportunity to gain in Quebec both in and out of Montreal. Anglophones voters especially in the west island are not so dyed in the wool liberal that they wouldn't vote Tory as they have in the past and as we know, outside of montreal there is dissatistfaction with the Bloc.

Don't see it happening, Morris. If Anglo Montreal decides against the Liberals, it is more likely to vote NDP than go for Harper.

[normanchateau]

In 2006, the popular votes in Quebec were BQ 42%, Cons 25% and Libs 21%. If the Liberals were to fall further, then there might be a few more riding splits that would favour the Tories.

In the latest 2008 Decima poll, March 18th, voting preferences break down as follows:

"In Quebec, the survey put the Bloc Quebecois on top with 37 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 27, the Tories at 19, NDP at 12 and Greens with four. Those numbers coincide closely with the averages over the last three Harris-Decima polls."

Source:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...qbLip_yN70vxRFQ

The Conservatives are not in free fall yet but the Liberal vote in Quebec appears to be rising relative to the 2006 election. No matter how many billions the Conservative big spenders transfer from the rest of Canada to Quebec, they can't seem to rise in the polls there.

If the Conservatives remain in third place with a dysfunctional Liberal party in Quebec, imagine where they'll be with a fully functioning Liberal party. For the Conservatives to win like Mulroney did in Quebec, they'll need to dump social and religious conservative Stephen Harper.

[capricorn]

In the latest 2008 Decima poll, March 18th, voting preferences break down as follows:

"In Quebec, the survey put the Bloc Quebecois on top with 37 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 27, the Tories at 19, NDP at 12 and Greens with four. Those numbers coincide closely with the averages over the last three Harris-Decima polls."

Source:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...qbLip_yN70vxRFQ

The Conservatives are not in free fall yet but the Liberal vote in Quebec appears to be rising relative to the 2006 election. No matter how many billions the Conservative big spenders transfer from the rest of Canada to Quebec, they can't seem to rise in the polls there.

Current polls are interesting but the most interesting polls come during an election campaign as we found out in the 2006 election.

Going into this election, the only question seemed to be how badly the Bloc Quebecois would eat into Liberal support. That’s still the predominant story, but the surging Conservatives have provided another outlet for voters disenchanted with the Liberals. BQ leader Gilles Duceppe may be the victim of inflated expectations that he helped to create. Duceppe was hoping that the Bloc would win over 50% of the vote, symbolically important because that’s the same threshold that sovereigntists use for a referendum victory. Will the Bloc cross that threshold? An unforeseen development during the campaign has been a rise of Conservative support in Quebec, particularly outside of Montreal. Will this translate into seats? If the Conservatives are to form a government, seats from Quebec are badly needed and those Conservative MPs elected in Quebec are on the fast track to a cabinet seat. The Liberals will retain many seats in West Montreal area, though, because they have deep support there. The NDP is not going to be a factor in Quebec.

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/old/election/f...wers-guide.html

The Conservatives subsequently won 10 seats in Quebec, a totally unexpected outcome.

[normanchateau]

Current polls are interesting but the most interesting polls come during an election campaign as we found out in the 2006 election.

And given that the current polls have the Conservatives in third place in Quebec despite a dysfunctional Quebec Liberal party, it will be interesting to see how far they fall when the Liberals become functional.

[capricorn]

And given that the current polls have the Conservatives in third place in Quebec despite a dysfunctional Quebec Liberal party, it will be interesting to see how far they fall when the Liberals become functional.

In 2006, the Liberal Party machine in Quebec was in high gear yet the Conservatives exceeded expectations. The Conservatives also won a by-election in Roberval-Lac St. Jean.

This won't help Liberal fortunes in Quebec:

Senior federal Liberals are publicly questioning the party's lack of election readiness in Quebec, placing the blame on Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion and his key organizers in the province.

Mr. Dion will face the criticism head-on at the end of the week when he spends two days in Montreal.

Steven Pinkus, the party's vice-president for Quebec's anglophone community, went public on the weekend in the Quebec media with recriminations against the Liberals' recruiting, fundraising and communication efforts.

“The party is hurting itself if no one is willing to step up to the plate to put together an organization strategy,” he said in an interview Monday.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

There appear to be many unhappy players in the Liberal family.

There's also the problem of Dion's image as leader among Quebecers:

In February, the Strategic Counsel conducted a poll on leadership. Here's how the top four compare in Quebec (Canadian figure in brackets) on the question of who people trust most to be prime minister:

* Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Conservatives - 28 per cent (43 per cent)

* Gilles Duceppe, Bloc Quebecois - 19 per cent (n/a)

* Jack Layton, NDP - 18 per cent (12 per cent)

* Stephane Dion - 16 per cent (15 per cent)

"Harper -- an anglophone raised in Leaside (in Toronto), now holding a seat from Alberta -- is leading Dion in Quebec. That's extraordinary," Woolstencroft said.

Overall, "the Liberals continue to under-perform in the province of Quebec," he said.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

I have to wonder how long it will take before the Liberals become functional. Maybe Bob Rae in the front benches will turn things around.

[normanchateau]

In 2006, the Liberal Party machine in Quebec was in high gear yet the Conservatives exceeded expectations.

That was 2006 when the Quebecois were especially angry with the Liberals. Do you really think that they are just as angry in 2008? If so, why are the Conservatives now behind the dysfunctional Liberals in popular support in Quebec?

What more can Harper possibly do to buy the Quebec vote? In the 2007 federal budget, he transferred billions to Quebec from the rest of Canada. In 2008 he'll implement Bernard Lord's recommendations on bilingualism which will also cost us billions. In 2006, he declared the Quebecois a nation. Now he's played into the hands of the PQ by recognizing Kosovo's right to secede from Serbia. What more can Harper do to get the popular support in Quebec that Brian Mulroney achieved in order to win a majority?