Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

I think the party brand is stronger then that.

At the moment, I don't see a future for the Liberals. If they fail to deliver over 50 seats this election, I forecast bankruptcy and ultimately collapse.

[jdobbin]

Latest Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National

The poll also indicates that the Conservatives' strength in battleground ridings is fuelled by a commanding lead among male voters, those with higher incomes, and voters over 50.

The Liberals, who typically need a lead among female voters to win, are trailing the Tories among women in the B.C. and Quebec battlegrounds, and are essentially tied among women in the Ontario battleground.

Still looks like a massive defeat for the Liberals.

[jbg]

I think the trend so far is to massive majority. The first week has not been a banner week for the Liberals at all and many candidates were only nominated yesterday with a few more to go.

Jdobbin, your sudden conversion from:

For the sake of your memory of where I stand, I've said since 2006 that the Tories will win another minority.

to

Latest Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National

Still looks like a massive defeat for the Liberals.

is suspect. It sounds like a reprise of "Harper, scary".

[blueblood]

Jdobbin, your sudden conversion from:

to

is suspect. It sounds like a reprise of "Harper, scary".

Dobbin has a point, they were musing about it on MDL, apparently the Libs and NDP are at a statistical tie.

[jdobbin]

Dobbin has a point, they were musing about it on MDL, apparently the Libs and NDP are at a statistical tie.

The poster you are responding to seems not to realize how much the Liberal vote has collapsed and how poor the timing is for the Liberals. I suspect the post was to attack me rather than address the fact that the Tories have had a major surge in the last weeks.

Today's Ekos poll:

"The Conservatives continue to knock on the door of a majority government," the polling firm said.

It put the Conservatives at 37 percent support, the Liberals at 26 percent, the left-leaning New Democrats at 19 percent, the Green Party at 10 percent and the separatist Bloc Quebecois at 8 percent.

In January 2006, the Conservatives won the last election with 36 percent over the Liberals' 30 percent.

[jbg]

The poster you are responding to seems not to realize how much the Liberal vote has collapsed and how poor the timing is for the Liberals. I suspect the post was to attack me rather than address the fact that the Tories have had a major surge in the last weeks.

Today's Ekos poll:

No, the post was not to attack you. I have never meant any offense.

If you would respond civilly you would have no reason for suspicion. Someone, superquote this post please.

[jdobbin]

NDP support surges in B.C.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

The latest survey of 10 swing ridings in B.C., conducted from Sept. 7-9 for CTV and the Globe and Mail, shows the NDP gaining six points (percentage-point change from a Sept. 6-8 poll in brackets):

* Conservatives: 36 per cent (-5)

* New Democrats: 30 per cent (+6)

* Liberals: 21 per cent (-2)

* Green Party: 12 per cent (none)

The Liberals look to lose numerous ridings in this province.

[BubberMiley]

The Liberals look to lose numerous ridings in this province.

But it will be decided in Ontario and Quebec, and I don't think the CPC has sufficient voter concentration in those provinces yet to pull off a "massive" majority.

I'm even surprised in the home riding here in Wpg South how many Anita Neville signs are around compared to former Bomber kicker CPC challenger Trevor Kennerd. I can't think of a reason why anyone would want to re-elect Neville and would think they would be looking for an excuse to dump her, but on my bike ride tally she outscored him 3-1.

[Alta4ever]

No, the post was not to attack you. I have never meant any offense.

If you would respond civilly you would have no reason for suspicion. Someone, superquote this post please.

What is a superquote?

[jbg]

What is a superquote?

You did it. Basically a quote that links back to the source.

[jbg]

But it will be decided in Ontario and Quebec, and I don't think the CPC has sufficient voter concentration in those provinces yet to pull off a "massive" majority.

I'm with you. Those forecasting a "massive majority" are scaremongering.

[BubberMiley]

I'm with you. Those forecasting a "massive majority" are scaremongering.

Are the CPC that bad?

[jdobbin]

But it will be decided in Ontario and Quebec, and I don't think the CPC has sufficient voter concentration in those provinces yet to pull off a "massive" majority.

I've indicated it is the trend as indicated by Environics analysis of the issues and the timing of the election. CTV's polls on swing ridings have shown how bad the Liberals have collapsed.

I'm even surprised in the home riding here in Wpg South how many Anita Neville signs are around compared to former Bomber kicker CPC challenger Trevor Kennerd. I can't think of a reason why anyone would want to re-elect Neville and would think they would be looking for an excuse to dump her, but on my bike ride tally she outscored him 3-1.

I saw the Trevor Kennerd team doing the sign work today. Of all the ridings in the west, Winnipeg South Centre has one of the oldest and largest Liberal organization in the west. It is made up of old Axworthy and Carstairs players as well as those who work on Jon Gerrard's team. The NDP often run a token candidate in the riding but I have no idea if that is the case this time. If the NDP vote surges as it has in Vancouver, it could spell trouble for her.

Still, Anita Neville is both Jewish and female and the people of the riding know her and after the last election, she has been doing a lot of constituency work.

Wish I could tell you what is happening in St. Boniface. There has been some demographic changes there but Simard is French Canadian with strong roots and hard workers in the constituency.

Both ridings could be lost and the Tories are pouring everything into both of them. The NDP vote here is critical as well as voter turn out.

I doubt any party knows how Churchill will do. It is strong NDP territory so Tina Keeper will have a fight to hold it for the Liberals.

[CANADIEN]

I'm with you. Those forecasting a "massive majority" are scaremongering.

Or they are PC supporters wishing it will happen

[jdobbin]

Are the CPC that bad?

My thoughts precisely.

The polls are all saying the public want a majority. The polls say they are not afraid of a Tory majority. The polls say that Harper is seen as a leader and show that Dion is not seen as a leader.

The targeted polls on swing ridings do not show a very good scenario for the Liberals at all. The trend is still towards a collapse of the Liberal vote and Tories are starting to push ahead. More worrying for the Liberals in some regards is that the NDP is surging in B.C. and could spell disaster for Liberals in ridings they probably thought were not as big of a concern.

I was the first in this forum to say that Harper would call an election and that he could and probably would call it without a confidence vote in the House of Commons. I was told that just wasn't going to happen. I think I can say with some faith that I believe the Liberals are headed for a major defeat. It is said with no aim to somehow direct voters back to the Liberals because I don't see what I say changing mind here. Quite honestly, I've seen no indication that people are afraid of a Harper majority and many would even welcome it.

The Liberals probably have this week to try and hold to what they have. While they have had the other parties on the defensive somewhat, it is not enough to cause people to support Dion in a big way.

The trend to me still indicates a massive majority for the Tories. They just don't campaign well, don't have the money to counter or make points quickly and don't have a leader who inspires people. No issue is driving the election. Some say the Green Shift is the major issue but I disagree. The issue has primarily been leadership thus far.

[jdobbin]

Commentary from Environics.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/story/2...olls-adams.html

If the latest poll Environics has conducted for the CBC holds until election day, Canada will have a majority Conservative government under the leadership of Prime Minister Stephen Harper. It shouldn't surprise Torontonians if on the Saturday morning after Election Day they overhear someone at the St. Lawrence Market say to a fellow shopper: "Harper won a majority. Did you see that coming? I don't know anybody who voted Tory, do you?"

Environics polled a representative sample of 2,505 eligible Canadian voters. Their message was pretty clear.

I think it confirms what I have been saying since the election began and should counter any personal attacks of scaremongering. That tactic won't work this election. The timing of the election has pulled the rug out from the Liberals who had been steady all summer. People aren't upset about Harper going to the polls before the fixed election date because they never really cared in large numbers about fixed election dates as an issue. All they saw was Harper acting like a leader. While some who do support Harper might think it is cynical (and it is), they are not about to change their vote.

Edited September 11, 2008 by jdobbin

[Jerry J. Fortin]

While I certainly don't want a majority government lead by Mr. Harper, worst things could happen. If the end result is the complete removal of Mr. Dion I may suggest that everything has a price and this cost was worth the expense of having the Liberals lose another election.

[Bryan]

Dobbin,

You keep forecasting "collapse" for the Liberals. You still think they'll be in opposition though, right? You aren't actually thinking Layton will surpass Dion in the seat counts?

[jdobbin]

You keep forecasting "collapse" for the Liberals. You still think they'll be in opposition though, right? You aren't actually thinking Layton will surpass Dion in the seat counts?

These are my seat count projections:

Conservative Party - 192

Liberal Party - 42

Bloc Quebecois - 35

New Democratic Party - 38

Green Party /Independent - 1

Total 308

Even with the Tories stumbling in the last days such as the firing of Ryan Sparrow, the trend is still toward a Liberal collapse.

The latest poll from Corporate Research in Nova Scotia:

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/9008402.html

About 34 per cent of decided voters support the Conservatives, up from 27 per cent in May.

Liberal support dropped to 29 per cent from 38 per cent. NDP support remained stable, the poll suggests, at 28 per cent, compared to 27 per cent in May. Green Party support remained unchanged at seven per cent.

60 seats lost is a massive defeat.

I think thereafter they will go bankrupt and I am not all that confident they will survive as a party.

[jdobbin]

While I certainly don't want a majority government lead by Mr. Harper, worst things could happen. If the end result is the complete removal of Mr. Dion I may suggest that everything has a price and this cost was worth the expense of having the Liberals lose another election.

I doubt the Liberal party will even survive. It is headed for bankruptcy.

[Bryan]

These are my seat count projections:

Conservative Party - 192

Liberal Party - 42

Bloc Quebecois - 35

New Democratic Party - 38

Green Party /Independent - 1

Total 308

That's not a total collapse, that's just a loss. You're still in a better position than every other political entity in the country other than the Conservatives. If 42 seats makes the Liberals non-viable, what does that make the NDP and the Greens?

I don't think it'll be anywhere near as severe a swing as you fear. I'm sure they'll increase their seat count, but even getting to 155 for the CPC seems like wishful thinking to me. I'm not even sure I want them to get that many.

[jdobbin]

That's not a total collapse, that's just a loss. You're still in a better position than every other political entity in the country other than the Conservatives. If 42 seats makes the Liberals non-viable, what does that make the NDP and the Greens?

Read Tom Flangan's Globe and Mail article to see why is would be the total collapse of the party.

Unlike the NDP or Greens, the Liberals borrowed $2 million to just fund operations this year. They borrowed $19 million for the election. Major leaders are still in debt. The party needs the taxpayer money just to stay alive.

It is not just an ordinary defeat. It will be devastating and probably unrecoverable.

I don't think it'll be anywhere near as severe a swing as you fear. I'm sure they'll increase their seat count, but even getting to 155 for the CPC seems like wishful thinking to me. I'm not even sure I want them to get that many.

The Liberals will hold handfuls of seats here but based on the trend, it doesn't look good.

Still, if Harper can't get control of his team and his message, Dion won't have to do anything but not get in the way.

[Technocrat]

I doubt the Liberal party will even survive. It is headed for bankruptcy.

Bollocks.

I don't love Dion, but I like Harper even less. The NDP are a bloody joke. Liberals will not collapse, but I don't think they will be gaining any seats. I might for the Liberals not becaue I like Dion... but because they have good people in their party who know what the hell they are doing at the helm of our country. They screw it up every once in awhile but in reality so do all the parties weilding the power of government. I honestly just don't see what the Cons really have going for them... other then the fact that the other parties really cant get their shit togeather.

I think the best way forward for Canada is another Minority with the conservatives at the helm. Dion needs to get the boot... Rae... even with all of his baggage from his NDP days in Ontario is a much more articulate leader. Frankly my worst fear... I am not trying to fear monger hear, is that if given a majority government Harper turns out to be another Mike Harris.

That all said... i really am looking forward to the national debates. Especially with the greens. If May does well. I just might vote green as a protest vote.

[jdobbin]

I don't love Dion, but I like Harper even less. The NDP are a bloody joke. Liberals will not collapse, but I don't think they will be gaining any seats. I might for the Liberals not becaue I like Dion... but because they have good people in their party who know what the hell they are doing at the helm of our country. They screw it up every once in awhile but in reality so do all the parties weilding the power of government. I honestly just don't see what the Cons really have going for them... other then the fact that the other parties really cant get their shit togeather.

The Liberals have been in a precarious position since 2006. As I said, the trend is to a collapse of the Liberal vote.

It can be seen in many of the swing ridings and can and will be affected by Green, NDP and Bloc support rising and falling in a number of places. There is no fear of a Tory majority and the poor campaigns the Liberals have run in the last few elections seems a strong possibility of repeating this year.

I think the best way forward for Canada is another Minority with the conservatives at the helm. Dion needs to get the boot... Rae... even with all of his baggage from his NDP days in Ontario is a much more articulate leader. Frankly my worst fear... I am not trying to fear monger hear, is that if given a majority government Harper turns out to be another Mike Harris.

Canadians don't elect minorities on purpose.

I don't deny that people vote against something in politics but that doesn't seem to be the case this election. They seem to be voting for something and that is for leadership.

We'll see how the issues plays out. Things can change but to deny the Liberals are not in major trouble ignores the fact the dynamic changed the minute the election was called.

That all said... i really am looking forward to the national debates. Especially with the greens. If May does well. I just might vote green as a protest vote.

The Green vote is one of the things I see affecting Liberal fortunes. I see many former Liberal voters considering a vote for the party.

[blueblood]

The Liberals have been in a precarious position since 2006. As I said, the trend is to a collapse of the Liberal vote.

It can be seen in many of the swing ridings and can and will be affected by Green, NDP and Bloc support rising and falling in a number of places. There is no fear of a Tory majority and the poor campaigns the Liberals have run in the last few elections seems a strong possibility of repeating this year.

Canadians don't elect minorities on purpose.

I don't deny that people vote against something in politics but that doesn't seem to be the case this election. They seem to be voting for something and that is for leadership.

We'll see how the issues plays out. Things can change but to deny the Liberals are not in major trouble ignores the fact the dynamic changed the minute the election was called.

The Green vote is one of the things I see affecting Liberal fortunes. I see many former Liberal voters considering a vote for the party.

if the greens gain relevance this election then the left is in trouble. The NDP are radicals, the green is a one trick pony. If the Liberals are to be potentially decimated this election that leaves a huge gap in this election. I'd be curious to see what happens to the NDP, as either they will have to move to the centre or perhaps another political party will form.