Canadian Political Polls

[blueblood]

The big question is whether a new campaign focus on issues during the upcoming debates will carve support off Tory popularity. The fact that Harper has avoided any talk of the environment or Afghanistan up to now tells me he realizes his party is vulnerable on these issues.

Voters have other concerns besides the economy and leadership.

That's what Stephane Dion thinks and he's paying the price.

[jdobbin]

That's what Stephane Dion thinks and he's paying the price.

I'm sure Harper thought that arts and crime wouldn't see him lose votes in Quebec and now he's paying the price.

[blueblood]

I'm sure Harper thought that arts and crime wouldn't see him lose votes in Quebec and now he's paying the price.

Didn't lose as many as the green shift though...

[jdobbin]

Didn't lose as many as the green shift though...

In Quebec? I don't know if it lost the Liberals anything there. Dion is facing deep unpopularity because of his connection to the Clarity Act and a tarnished Liberal brand among francophones.

[Vancouver King]

In Quebec? I don't know if it lost the Liberals anything there. Dion is facing deep unpopularity because of his connection to the Clarity Act and a tarnished Liberal brand among francophones.

CBC analysis today says Michael Fortier, Public Works, is so far behind the Bloc candidate that the Tory war room has now written their man off.

[capricorn]

Win some, lose some. Oh well....

[jdobbin]

Win some, lose some. Oh well....

He'll just go back to the Senate though.

[blueblood]

He'll just go back to the Senate though.

Is Fortier that well needed in the tory party that he'll go back to the senate and keep his minister job. That doesn't look good.

Time to cut the rope...

[jdobbin]

Is Fortier that well needed in the tory party that he'll go back to the senate and keep his minister job. That doesn't look good.

Time to cut the rope...

You'll still vote for the party no matter what so what does it matter?

[blueblood]

You'll still vote for the party no matter what so what does it matter?

It matters in order to expand the party and get more MPs elected.

If cutting Fortier enables that, then cut away.

You said the Libs need a policy convention and a solid direction. That didn't happen and you'll still vote for them, so what does it matter?

[jdobbin]

It matters in order to expand the party and get more MPs elected.

If cutting Fortier enables that, then cut away.

You said the Libs need a policy convention and a solid direction. That didn't happen and you'll still vote for them, so what does it matter?

The Liberals had their biennial convention scheduled. It had to be cancelled because of the election. I think the policy discussions would have better prepared the party for the election. Harper made sure that he called the election before Parliament was back in session and before the convention.

I'd be surprised if Fortier was cut loose.

[jdobbin]

Latest polls show division.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...E4906B320081001

The Conservatives could turn their parliamentary minority into a majority in the October 14 election, according to one poll released on Wednesday, while other surveys suggest they could fall just short.

A Strategic Council survey for the Globe and Mail put the Conservatives at 39 percent support, with the official opposition Liberals well behind at 24 percent. The left-leaning New Democrats were at 19 percent.

A Harris-Decima/Canadian Press poll had the Conservatives unchanged at 36 percent, the Liberals down two points at 24 percent and the New Democrats off one point at 17 percent.

An Ekos automated telephone poll put the Conservatives at 34 percent and the Liberals at 25 percent, down two points from the day before, with the New Democrats up one point at 20 percent. It said the chances of a Conservative majority seemed to be slipping away.

And on the heels of the Leger poll.

CROP put the Conservatives at 30 percent public support in the province, one point behind the separatist Bloc Quebecois. The Liberals had 16 percent.

"It's possible the Conservatives could make some gains, but contrary to what one might have thought at the start of the campaign, there will not be a Conservative wave," said Claude Gauthier of CROP.

Edited October 1, 2008 by jdobbin

[Vancouver King]

The effects, if any, of Harper's plagarism will show over the next few days.

[blueblood]

The effects, if any, of Harper's plagarism will show over the next few days.

And so will Dion's...

[capricorn]

The big hoopla about the increase cut in arts funding doesn't seem to have delivered a major blow.

[Smallc]

The big hoopla about the increase cut in arts funding doesn't seem to have delivered a major blow.

I would say that such things don't matter anymore in light of the US downturn, at least in the eyes of many of the people.

Edited October 1, 2008 by Smallc

[jdobbin]

The big hoopla about the increase cut in arts funding doesn't seem to have delivered a major blow.

I think the Bloc's strength is showing that Harper still has a ways to go to earn Quebec's vote or are you suggesting they will break the Bloc?

[capricorn]

I think the Bloc's strength is showing that Harper still has a ways to go to earn Quebec's vote or are you suggesting they will break the Bloc?

Rendering the Bloc impotent is one of Harper's long term goals. The only way to do this is incrementally. Nobody can deny that the Bloc's support is eroding under Harper's governance.

[jdobbin]

Rendering the Bloc impotent is one of Harper's long term goals. The only way to do this is incrementally. Nobody can deny that the Bloc's support is eroding under Harper's governance.

And has recovered substantially according to Leger and CROP polls.

[capricorn]

And has recovered substantially according to Leger and CROP polls.

I'm not inclined to review past polls to affirm or rebut your point. Suffice it to say there is volatility in Bloc support contrary to the past where its support was static.

[jdobbin]

I'm not inclined to review past polls to affirm or rebut your point. Suffice it to say there is volatility in Bloc support contrary to the past where its support was static.

I guess we'll see in the election. I said from the beginning that the Bloc are election performers. As much as I'd like to see them down, they are quite wily.

[Vancouver King]

I guess we'll see in the election. I said from the beginning that the Bloc are election performers. As much as I'd like to see them down, they are quite wily.

You would like to see the Bloc down even though every seat they take is one more barrier to a Harper majority.

Your antipathy towards Conservatives obviously doesn't extend to strategic voting.

[jdobbin]

You would like to see the Bloc down even though every seat they take is one more barrier to a Harper majority.

Your antipathy towards Conservatives obviously doesn't extend to strategic voting.

Don't think I said I want a Tory majority or any sort of Tory government. I just said I want the Bloc defeated. I don't like a party committed to breaking the country apart in Ottawa.

I know some people just want the Tories defeated but I don't know how the Bloc makes things better.

[Canadian Blue]

I will give you one thing Jdobbin, you're making alot more sense than the federalists who support the Bloc to attack Harper.

[jdobbin]

I will give you one thing Jdobbin, you're making alot more sense than the federalists who support the Bloc to attack Harper.

I don't know any Liberals who want the Bloc to win. According to the Strategic Counsel, the Liberals have a strong chance of knocking off a few Bloc members. The Tories did have a strong chance but the Bloc has surged because of some ill advised policies that have rallied opposition to Harper.

The Liberal vote continues to collapse though and I still think Harper will win a massive majority. He just has to stop making all Opposition in Quebec to him go to the Bloc.

Edited October 2, 2008 by jdobbin