Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...YzIHJPz0GALAicg

A new poll that asked people to rate the federal political parties on their performance in the spring session suggests that the Tories earned slightly higher grades than the Liberals.

The Canadian Press-Harris-Decima survey says eight per cent of respondents gave the Conservatives an A, 25 per cent rated them a B, 24 per cent went for a C, 12 per cent chose D and 14 per cent gave a flunking grade.

For the Liberals, only four per cent offered an A, while 21 per cent went for B, 29 per cent chose C, 13 per cent marked D and 14 per cent gave an F.

Not exactly ringing endorsements for any party.

[Fortunata]

Not exactly ringing endorsements for any party.

I think only the most partisan would give either party a ringing endorsement (Cons and Libs I mean) and anyone in their right mind wouldn't endorse Layton. Would they?

[jdobbin]

I think only the most partisan would give either party a ringing endorsement (Cons and Libs I mean) and anyone in their right mind wouldn't endorse Layton. Would they?

I heard his mother is voting Green. She never liked his mustache.

[Vancouver King]

Jack Layton runs a parking lot. Once the next campaign heats up expect legions of small L liberals to cast ballots on a strategic basis for Dion's Libs - leaving the socialist lot half empty.

[Fortunata]

Jack Layton runs a parking lot. Once the next campaign heats up expect legions of small L liberals to cast ballots on a strategic basis for Dion's Libs - leaving the socialist lot half empty.

I guess that's why Layton spends more time criticizing the Liberals than he does the reigning Conservatives.

[jdobbin]

I guess that's why Layton spends more time criticizing the Liberals than he does the reigning Conservatives.

Yesterday, Allan Gregg on the CBC At Issues panel said that Layton suffered this session in polling. Important issues such as the environment saw Layton's stand fuel opposition even among its traditional supporters.

More details are the CBC site but Gregg said that Layton was one of the most overrated politicians and that he could be leading his party to some problems in the next election if the squeeze came between Tories and Liberals.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Environics.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/sto...p-4782283c.html

Satisfaction with the Conservative government of Stephen Harper has plummeted in many parts of the country, but it took the biggest hit here in Manitoba, a new national poll suggests.

The latest Environics Research poll obtained by the Free Press shows that half of Canadians were unsatisfied with the Harper government -- a 15 point drop since December.

The most notable drop in public satisfaction was in Manitoba as the Conservative rating fell 22 points to 46 per cent in Manitoba. Saskatchewan was also less fertile ground for the Tories as the satisfaction dropped 21 points to 53 per cent.

Albertans remain the most pleased with the Tories as their satisfaction level dropped only six points to 68 per cent.

Environics polled 2,026 Canadians between March 13 and April 7. The surveys results are considered accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 out of 20 times. But the provincial results were obtained from a much smaller sample size which increases the margin of error significantly.

I haven't seen this poll anywhere else. Probably commissioned privately.

[Keepitsimple]

Latest poll from Environics.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/sto...p-4782283c.html

I haven't seen this poll anywhere else. Probably commissioned privately.

Kind of interesting but unfortunately it's pretty outdated - data was collected between March 13th and April 7th. Can't remember what was going on in that period but I'm pretty sure it was during some of the worst parliamentary optics:

Environics polled 2,026 Canadians between March 13 and April 7.

[normanchateau]

Conservatives lose ground with women, Quebecers, Ontarians, poll suggests:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...mf2qr6cF21dM1VA

[normanchateau]

Conservatives lose ground with women, Quebecers, Ontarians, poll suggests:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...mf2qr6cF21dM1VA

[jbg]

Conservatives lose ground with women, Quebecers, Ontarians, poll suggests:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...mf2qr6cF21dM1VA

Did you need to tell us twice?

[Vancouver King]

Would the last Tory in Quebec kindly turn out the lights?

Quebec breakdown:

Bloc - 37%

Liberal - 25

Conservative - 17

NDP - 11

Green - 9

Edited July 4, 2008 by Vancouver King

[Fortunata]

YAY! I'm enjoying the moment. It might not last but today, that's good news. Harper has got his hands deep in our pockets, however. He can afford to come up with something that will buy him votes.

[jdobbin]

Conservatives lose ground with women, Quebecers, Ontarians, poll suggests:

I guess things like daycare and the environment do matter to some voters.

[jdobbin]

Would the last Tory in Quebec kindly turn out the lights?

Quebec breakdown:

Bloc - 37%

Liberal - 25

Conservative - 17

NDP - 11

Green - 9

It looks Dion has found an issue in the environment that Quebecers think matters.

[Vancouver King]

It looks Dion has found an issue in the environment that Quebecers think matters.

The astonishing decline in support could also be fallout from the Bernier affair. Incompetence by a favorite son might not sit well with a proud province.

Edited July 5, 2008 by Vancouver King

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos poll:

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.ht...52-796f0649a1be

OTTAWA - If Prime Minister Stephen Harper successfully goads Liberal Leader Stephane Dion into forcing a fall election, Harper may not be so pleased with the results.

A new poll shows the Conservatives just slightly ahead of the Liberals, but behind their Grit rivals in Ontario and Quebec, two provinces where the Conservatives must make gains if they hope to one day form a majority government.

Moreover, the poll, done exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National by Ipsos Reid, shows that, despite Harper's caustic dismissal of Dion's green shift plan and his challenge in a speech Wednesday that Dion ought to "fish or cut bait," voter support has barely moved.

As the pollster indicates, this is not enough for a majority for the Tories.

Moreover, the lead the Tories have is skewed by immense support in Alberta where they are already have every single seat.

[Wild Bill]

Latest Ipsos poll:

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.ht...52-796f0649a1be

As the pollster indicates, this is not enough for a majority for the Tories.

Moreover, the lead the Tories have is skewed by immense support in Alberta where they are already have every single seat.

I would have been more surprised if voter support HAD moved!

It's summer! No one cares about politics! It's between elections. Another reason why people don't care. Polls ALWAYS show little or no change at such times!

Only political junkies like ourselves are paying attention. Once the writ is dropped, then and only then does the electorate start to wake up.

Sheesh, it's not as if Canadians as a whole have been begging for an election!

No, Canadians' interest has been lukewarm at best. That's our tradition, after all.

Right now the most parties can do is to try to get shape on their spin, as it were. When the campaign starts and people start to pay attention they will all have just a few weeks to enhance their appeal over the other guys.

Incumbents who have not seriously screwed up will have an advantage. Opposition parties without planks of powerful popular appeal will have a serious challenge.

Normally, I would think that Dion would have the greatest challenge. His NewGST takes a LOT of 'splainin' to make Mr. and Mrs Joe Public come on board as "eco-warriors". He may simply not have enough time to do a good enough job of selling it. The very idea of a new tax makes Canadian hackles rise. Asking for trust that it will not hurt opposes generations of good reasons for voter cynicism. Why should they trust an unknown like Dion?

Yet despite all that Dion may still do surprisingly well. It all depends on how dumb we've become. If there are more people who get excited when they hear the word "Green" than there are people who ask "will it really work and what will it really cost?" then the idea might actually fly!

I'm really not sure at this point how it will work out. Public apathy about politics and its issues seems to keep increasing. More and more people seem to view politics as more of an elemental force, like the weather. You can't do anything to change it. All you can do is close the shutters during the bad stuff. So why bother talking about it?

I'm not saying such cynicism is right, just that it seems to be getting more popular.

Edited August 3, 2008 by Wild Bill

[capricorn]

Normally, I would think that Dion would have the greatest challenge.

I can't quite make out what you mean here Wild Bill. Are you saying that normally Dion would be at a disadvantage? Wouldn't Harper be the one to have a disadvantage since he is the one that has to defend his record in office, which would work in favour of the opposition?

He may simply not have enough time to do a good enough job of selling it.

IMO this is Dion's biggest challenge. Are the summer months a good time to present such a plan to Canadians when as you say they're tuned out of politics? His Green plan is very detailed and I wonder if Canadians have the patience to go through the maze of explanations required to fully understand how it will affect them. This is crucial given the voter apathy you point out. The green shift and all the unknowns it presents may cause many Canadians to opt for the status quo. This could be enough to give Harper another victory albeit a minority.

[Wild Bill]

I can't quite make out what you mean here Wild Bill. Are you saying that normally Dion would be at a disadvantage? Wouldn't Harper be the one to have a disadvantage since he is the one that has to defend his record in office, which would work in favour of the opposition?

No, I don't think Harper is at a disadvantage at all. I believe that most voters are nowhere near as partisan as those of us who post in these threads. If the incumbent hasn't caused any big sh*tstorm then people tend to vote with the status quo. Why change if there's no real perceived need? Just because some partisans here have tried to stick every trivial "scandal" on to Harper's Tories, up to and including late library books, is no reason to think that most Canadians care. To them, as long as taxes haven't gone up and the economy hasn't tanked then everything is tickety-boo, considering.

This applies to ANY incumbent, of ANY party! Please don't think that I'm saying that more people love the Tories. I don't think most voters are that partisan any more.

An incumbent only has to defend his record if the people are angry. Otherwise they will still vote for him, because he has made their lives easier. If things are going ok then they can ignore politics and enjoy their lives.

In normal times Dion as an opposition rival would have to offer a reason to change. Any student of sales or marketing knows that you can put all the choices you want in front of a customer but if you can't give him a good reason to change he sticks with what he's more familiar. So Dion would have the tougher task.

However, as I had said, the NewGST is kind of a wild card. "Green" is a mojo word to many folks these days. I'm saying that significant numbers of voters might back Dion without needing to understand his plan. So Dion doesn't have to explain his plan or defend it in debate.

If he DID get elected he might become a huge disappointment to the people but that's in the future. We're speculating about the NEXT one!

[madmax]

One of the best polling "commentary descriptions" I have come across.

I recommend you read the whole article. Here is a short quote.

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_509.html

Prime Minister Harper-- according to previous ROBBINS polls-- could have won runaway majorities two or three times---however he chose to govern with the minority granted to him-and frankly in our opinion-heed very bad advice. The fact that the Liberals deny his government agenda almost totally, but then refuse to show up and vote—makes a mockery of government---the Prime Minister’s government—so as the Liberals lose a little—so does the government. “Mutually inclusive incompetence” as one respondent puts it. It almost makes the government look a little like a bully—dragging Stephane Dion along—while marking time in government—until they need a renewed mandate. This permits the Bloc Quebecois to remain ‘relevant without a rationale’, and for the New Democrats to (appear) to threaten—without being too threatening.

And the numbers

Question #1

For which leader and party did you vote---// in the January 2006 general federal election?

Stephen Harper 36 %

Paul Martin and Liberal Party 32 %

Jack Layton and New Democrat 17.5 %

Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois 10.5 %

Jim Harris and Green Party 4.0 %

Question #2

If an election were held tomorrow for which party would you support?

Jack Layton and New Democrat 19.5 %

Stephane Dion and Liberal Party 28.0 %

Gilles Duceppe and Bloc 9.0 %

Elizabeth May and Green Party 6.0 %

Stephen Harper and Conservatives 37.5 %

Undecided 16 %

[Vancouver King]

I recommend you read the whole article. Here is a short quote.

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_509.html

It took all of 10 seconds in the main article to find the major flaw. The provincial samples in no way represent their actual population weights within the country. Conservative B.C. gets 350 samples from a total of 1,050 - triple its actual number - and the West overall has 450 of the total. Hardly represenative and apparently designed to pump the CPC numbers.

Polling should be left to the pros.

[jdobbin]

It took all of 10 seconds in the main article to find the major flaw. The provincial samples in no way represent their actual population weights within the country. Conservative B.C. gets 350 samples from a total of 1,050 - triple its actual number - and the West overall has 450 of the total. Hardly represenative and apparently designed to pump the CPC numbers.

Polling should be left to the pros.

I'd have to agree. B.C. has the same sample as Ontario?

[Vancouver King]

Should be quite interesting to see the measured effects, if any, on party popularity due to some recent events. Today we are told the country lost 55,000 jobs in July, the dollar has sunk to 93 cents and last week housing prices actually declined in Canada.

Unlike the Cadman, Bernier, Mulroney and Elections Canada affairs - which largely command the attention of political junkies - these new events hit squarely on Main Street and will be noticed by voters like a kick in the wallet. Flaherty must be imploring the gods to spare the economy another quarter of contraction otherwise the "r" word is in play in the rapidly approaching election.

It's hard to see today's economy, and it's near term outlook, as anything but a liability for Stephen Harper.

[jbg]

It's hard to see today's economy, and it's near term outlook, as anything but a liability for Stephen Harper.

It's hard to see how $1.30 gas and a carbon tax play well together at the polls.