Harper Having Trouble

[jdobbin]

From the Globe and Mail today.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

Internally, some staffers believe the Prime Minister erred when he moved so quickly to call for a public inquiry into the Mulroney-Schreiber affair. Unless the Conservatives can find a way to avoid an inquiry, the probe assures that the Mulroney issue will dog the government well into 2008 and perhaps beyond. Mr. Harper will become the hostage of events and of testimony that will threaten to tarnish his party's brand.

"I think that was the first time that he's really made a serious slip," one senior official told The Globe and Mail. "Everybody who looked at that said 'No, no, no, no.' I wouldn't have gone there. It was uncharacteristic."

Mr. Harper, said the official, is a man who needs to have "downtime" when making his decisions and shouldn't take on too many of them on his own.

"He needs to occasionally turn up the flame on the balloon so he can go up a little higher and have a look and he hasn't had time to do that right now."

That means allowing staffers to offer more strategic advice.

Also in the foreseeable future, the government will face the challenge of dealing with climate change and the sentiment that it hitched its wagon to the United States during recent meetings in Bali.

Greg Lyle, a pollster with Innovative Research Group, said climate change is a more dangerous issue for the government than the Mulroney-Schreiber affair.

"I think they came up pretty bruised in terms of whether they're really serious about moving forward on climate change," Mr. Lyle said. "My takeaway of the coverage was that he was still arm in arm with George Bush, who is on his way out - sort of the last of the reactionaries."

Other future challenges also abound. For example, the Prime Minister will be obliged to call a series of by-elections soon for seats being vacated by Liberals.

I think there will be a lot of pressure on Harper now when it comes to the environment. They will have to be bold if they hope to avoid being connected to Bush and obstruction on global warming.

[noahbody]

Aren't pollsters supposed to be commenting on polls? This is a poll of one.

[jdobbin]

Aren't pollsters supposed to be commenting on polls? This is a poll of one.

Innovative Research has done the largest sample polls on greenhouse gases in the country in 2007 according to the radio report of this story on the news today. That poll said that Canadians were willing to let Harper say he wasn't going honor Kyoto only if he showed concrete actions on the greenhouse gases.

Here is the full poll.

http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/CNS_release_20070116.pdf

The obstruction last week by Baird was not concrete action.

Edited December 19, 2007 by jdobbin

[bush_cheney2004]

Innovative Research has done the largest sample polls on greenhouse gases in the country in 2007 according to the radio report of this story on the news today. That poll said that Canadians were willing to let Harper say he wasn't going honor Kyoto only if he showed concrete actions on the greenhouse gases.

The obstruction last week by Baird was not concrete action.

False.....and misleading conclusion...here is what the original poll said concerning the "environment", not "actions on the greenhouse gases":

Prime Minister Stephen Harper won't incur Canadians' wrath for abandoning the Kyoto accord as long as he takes other concrete measures to prove his government cares about the environment, according to a new poll provided exclusively yesterday to CanWest News Service.

The online survey of close to 3,000 Canadians by Innovative Research found that just 31 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement that Canada must do its part to fight global warming, and implementing the Kyoto accord is "the best way to do it."

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/s...22b&k=11718

[Michael Bluth]

False.....and misleading conclusion...here is what the original poll said concerning the "environment", not "actions on the greenhouse gases":

And that surprises you?

Edited December 19, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[guyser]

And that surprises you?

...ahem......

[Michael Bluth]

False.....and misleading conclusion...here is what the original poll said concerning the "environment", not "actions on the greenhouse gases":

Prime Minister Stephen Harper won't incur Canadians' wrath for abandoning the Kyoto accord as long as he takes other concrete measures to prove his government cares about the environment, according to a new poll provided exclusively yesterday to CanWest News Service.

Well bc, the original poster hasn't replied. You appear to be correct in saying that the conclusion was false and misleading.

Edited December 19, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[jdobbin]

...ahem......

Still getting someone with their pants around their ankles to admit they were wrong? heh

I found the full poll by Innovative Research instructive in what pollster Greg Lyle was trying to get at this week when he said the Tories could be in trouble in regards to Bali.

http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/CNS_release_20070116.pdf

He said that 31% believed that Kyoto was the best way to go about fighting global warming. 59% that that there was other ways to fight global warming and Kyoto was just one way to do it. Only 6% were convinced there didn't need to be anything done about it.

On commentary this week, Lyle said the obstruction seen in Bali was seen as an attempt to do nothing on global warming and that would not play with with the electorate.

Latest Decima poll has the Tories behind the Liberals in a statistical tie. They say Bali was a major issue.

Edited December 19, 2007 by jdobbin

[Keepitsimple]

Back to the original topic of this thread, I hate to sound partisan but it bugs me when a newspaper publishes an article that is totally devoid of any use except sowing negativity. I would likely feel the same if it was slanted against the Liberals - but I admit I probably wouldn't make a big deal about it. The Globe article starts by saying "Internally, some staffers believe the Prime Minister erred.......". Well, of course if you really want to, you can always find some "staffers" (not MP's apparently) who think that maybe an inquiry is not necessary. Why is that newsworthy? It seems just like yesterday that the Star, the Globe and the opposition parties were screaming for a Public Inquiry. With Harper's pragmatic approach to allowing Dr. Johnston to set terms that could be broad and expensive, narrow and direct, or perhaps even suggest something as an alternative to a Public Inquiry - I guess the Globe can do nothing except try and imply some discontent exists in the Conservative Party. Out of the hundreds, if not thousands of staffers who service the Conservative MP's, I wonder how many actually said that they thought the PM had made a mistake at the time that he called for the Inquiry. How many constitute "some" - two, three? Gloobe & Mail - thanks for another in-depth journalistic masterpiece.

Edited December 19, 2007 by Keepitsimple

[Michael Bluth]

Still, getting someone with their pants around their ankles to admit they were wrong? heh

Wow, good work jdobbin.

Thank you for the opening.

Bush Cheney was correct. You misrepresented the poll. Why not just present the poll results accurately?

Instead you lead with a dig on me from another thread? Apropos of nothing.

As long as the mods let you get away with such behaviour there is nothing that can really be done except to question your misinterpretations and inacurracies.

Thankfully you provide us with a lot of those.

Edited December 19, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[Shakeyhands]

Wow, good work jdobbin.

Instead you lead with a dig on me from another thread? Apropos of nothing.

As long as the mods let you get away with such behaviour there is nothing that can really be done except to question your misinterpretations and inacurracies.

Thankfully you provide us with a lot of those.

The funny thing is about this post is that to my knowledge JDobbin doesn't even see your posts Michael....

Simply out of curiosity, what "behaviour" are you refering to anyway?

[jdobbin]

Back to the original topic of this thread, I hate to sound partisan but it bugs me when a newspaper publishes an article that is totally devoid of any use except sowing negativity. I would likely feel the same if it was slanted against the Liberals - but I admit I probably wouldn't make a big deal about it. The Globe article starts by saying "Internally, some staffers believe the Prime Minister erred.......". Well, of course if you really want to, you can always find some "staffers" (not MP's apparently) who think that maybe an inquiry is not necessary. Why is that newsworthy? It seems just like yesterday that the Star, the Globe and the opposition parties were screaming for a Public Inquiry. With Harper's pragmatic approach to allowing Dr. Johnston to set terms that could be broad and expensive, narrow and direct, or perhaps even suggest something as an alternative to a Public Inquiry - I guess the Globe can do nothing except try and imply some discontent exists in the Conservative Party. Out of the hundreds, if not thousands of staffers who service the Conservative MP's, I wonder how many actually said that they thought the PM had made a mistake at the time that he called for the Inquiry. How many constitute "some" - two, three? Gloobe & Mail - thanks for another in-depth journalistic masterpiece.

Politics is often people who speak if they can remain off the record. It can get nasty and it is negative and there isn't a party that doesn't do nor a newspaper out there that won't report it.

I was surprised that Harper appointed someone to consider what the government should do on Mulroney and Shreiber. I said that the Tories should have deported Shreiber. If Shreiber did have anything of importance to say, I would have referred it to the RCMP and the taxman.

[jdobbin]

The funny thing is about this post is that to my knowledge JDobbin doesn't even see your posts Michael....

Simply out of curiosity, what "behaviour" are you refering to anyway?

I get to see other posters reply and find it quite amusing. This is one such case.

The full poll from Innovative is linked in this thread. It confirms what pollster Lyle said about the danger of obstructing Bali might play for the Tories. They are now tied with the Liberals in the latest Decima poll.

[noahbody]

He said that 31% believed that Kyoto was the best way to go about fighting global warming. 59% that that there was other ways to fight global warming and Kyoto was just one way to do it. Only 6% were convinced there didn't need to be anything done about it.

The poll says 69% don't believe kyoto is the best way to go.

On commentary this week, Lyle said the obstruction seen in Bali was seen as an attempt to do nothing on global warming and that would not ply week with the electorate.

Again this is his personal opinion. And since 69% don't fully support kyoto, I'm not sure how he draws that conclusion.

More importantly, please provide a link to where Lyle said "the obstruction."

[jdobbin]

The poll says 69% don't believe kyoto is the best way to go.

Again this is his personal opinion. And since 69% don't fully support kyoto, I'm not sure how he draws that conclusion.

More importantly, please provide a link to where Lyle said "the obstruction."

I believe it says 59%. And they said Kyoto was not the only way to go but that it was important to go work to solve global warming. Only 6% said global warming was not important.

He didn't say obstruction. That was my word. He did say "I think they came up pretty bruised in terms of whether they're really serious about moving forward on climate change. My takeaway of the coverage was that he was still arm in arm with George Bush, who is on his way out - sort of the last of the reactionaries."

I didn't use the words "reactionary" and "not moving forward" in favour of obstruction.

[Michael Bluth]

The funny thing is about this post is that to my knowledge JDobbin doesn't even see your posts Michael....

Simply out of curiosity, what "behaviour" are you refering to anyway?

Nobody knows who is on a given members blocked list. It take very little time to turn it on and off.

guyser not-so-obliquely called me a liar on some other thread then went off defending it and gloating how he had put me in my place. While I admitted an error in fact, guyser gloated. Good for him.

dobbin jumped in and referred to it in this thread. Apropos of nothing on this thread. Clearly an attempt to bait me. There was no viable reason for the allusion in this thread. That is the behaviour I was referring to.

If you want further information pm me.

If dobbin truly wants to ignore me so be it. Alas, he just pretends to ignore me when he sees it to his advantage. He hides his own personal attacks in the guise of agreeing with those of others.

[madmax]

Are people here paid to spread propoganda and spin a bad story?

[noahbody]

I believe it says 59%. And they said Kyoto was not the only way to go but that it was important to go work to solve global warming. Only 6% said global warming was not important.

I believe you're wrong. Only 31% believe Kyoto is the best solution. Therefore 69% believe it is not the best solution.

He didn't say obstruction. That was my word.

Ever hear of good honest debate?

He did say "I think they came up pretty bruised in terms of whether they're really serious about moving forward on climate change. My takeaway of the coverage was that he was still arm in arm with George Bush, who is on his way out - sort of the last of the reactionaries."

Again, this is one man's personal opinion, and not a very good one at that.

[jdobbin]

I believe you're wrong. Only 31% believe Kyoto is the best solution. Therefore 69% believe it is not the best solution.

Ever hear of good honest debate?

Again, this is one man's personal opinion, and not a very good one at that.

Read the poll again. I keep reading 59% believe it is "just one way to do so."

If you are not happy with obstructionist many others would not be happy with your wrong number or "it is not the best solution." Honest debate. There is a big difference between "it is not the best solution" and "It is just one way to do so." The first means dismissing Kyoto while the second means open to other solutions in addition to Kyoto.

And since the Decima poll sent the Tories plunging 4%, it is probably a very educated opinion that the pollster had on the price of inaction.

Edited December 19, 2007 by jdobbin

[noahbody]

Read the poll again. I keep reading 59% believe it is "just one way to do so."

If you are not happy with obstructionist many others would not be happy with your wrong number or "it is not the best solution." Honest debate. There is a big difference between "it is not the best solution" and "It is just one way to do so." The first means dismissing Kyoto while the second means open to other solutions in addition to Kyoto.

If 31% believe it is the best solution, how many do not believe it is the best solution?

a) 59%

69%

c) 8008

[jdobbin]

If 31% believe it is the best solution, how many do not believe it is the best solution?

It is amazing how many times some people read a poll and still don't get it.

The 69% number is the total amount of people who say they don't care if the government implements Kyoto, only that they take meaningful action on emissions. Instead, they saw the Tories be obstructionist in Bali and try to block legislation supported by the majority of parties in the House of Commons.

[noahbody]

It is amazing how many times some people read a poll and still don't get it.

It is amazing isn't it. Let me try to help you one more time.

The 69% number is the total amount of people who say they don't care if the government implements Kyoto, only that they take meaningful action on emissions. Instead, they saw the Tories be obstructionist in Bali and try to block legislation supported by the majority of parties in the House of Commons.

Here's why you're confused: there are two 69 percents. One you've mentioned above. The other is the percentage of those who don't believe kyoto is the best solution (100 - 31 = 69).

But as far as making his statements irrelevant, either stat will do. What he could say that would be accurate is that 31% will be upset.

[capricorn]

I think there will be a lot of pressure on Harper now when it comes to the environment. They will have to be bold if they hope to avoid being connected to Bush and obstruction on global warming.

It looks like the environment did not hurt Harper and the Conservatives whatsoever. In a year-end poll a majority of Canadians give the government good marks for performance.

"Controversial issues such as Canada's involvement in Afghanistan and its performance on the environment file did not impact the generally positive evaluation of the Harper government."

-----

"Canada is in a good mood.

A first-of-its kind poll to gauge how Canadians feel about their country found that most are generally upbeat about the future and are even happy with their politicians in Ottawa.

The inaugural "Mood of Canada" poll found that two out of three Canadians (65.8 percent) believe the country is moving in the right direction.

Of the 1,400 respondents, only 20.2 percent said it was moving in the wrong direction while 14 percent didn't know.

There was also a high degree of optimism for the economy in the year ahead, with almost half expecting it to get stronger in 2008, while only 19.8 percent said it will get weaker.

"The one big surprise is how optimistic everybody was," says Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, the Ottawa public opinion and research firm which conducted the poll."

----

"As for the Conservative government and Prime Minister Stephen Harper's leadership, Nanos says that while people don't have "a warm fuzzy feeling or inspirational feeling" for Harper, the government got "very high marks from Canadians."

Ten percent of respondents gave the government a "very good" rating, 29.4 percent a "good" rating, and 38.1 percent rated it "average." Only nine percent gave the government poor performance marks.

"What Canadians see is a Prime Minister who hasn't made any major mistakes," says Nanos. "They do recognize the competence of the Prime Minister as a manager, some one who knows his mind on issues…they have respect for the job that he has done."

http://en.epochtimes.com/news/8-1-2/63559.html

Good news for Harper and the Conservatives. The message is steady as she goes and a majority could be on the horizon.

[jdobbin]

It is amazing isn't it. Let me try to help you one more time.

Here's why you're confused: there are two 69 percents. One you've mentioned above. The other is the percentage of those who don't believe kyoto is the best solution (100 - 31 = 69).

But as far as making his statements irrelevant, either stat will do. What he could say that would be accurate is that 31% will be upset.

How about I help you?

31% say it is the best way. 59% say Kyoto is one way to do it. 6% say it isn't an issue. I assume 4% had no opinion.

The vast majority said that Kyoto was a major issue and that is probably one of the reasons the Tories are in a statistical tie with the Liberals. Many of the right wing here think that global warming is a) a hoax not worth really doing anything about c) Canada shouldn't have do anything unless everyone in the world is doing it.

Edited January 3, 2008 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

It looks like the environment did not hurt Harper and the Conservatives whatsoever. In a year-end poll a majority of Canadians give the government good marks for performance.

Good news for Harper and the Conservatives. The message is steady as she goes and a majority could be on the horizon.

That good news doesn't seem to extend to the Tories in Ipsos and Decima polls where they are a tie with the Liberals. One of issues mentioned for bring them down in both polls was their performance in Bali.