Throne Speech October 2007

[kengs333]

Is it possible that Dion will surprise us all and roll the dice on an election?

There are a coupe of reasons for thinking he may.

At present, the most likely result is a Tory Minority. If Dion waits, he risks a Tory majority. And any way he looks at it - he is unlikely to ever be Prime Minister. And he knows that the knives are out, and that he will be dumped before another election. He is done,and I think he knows it.. He may as well get it over with, have an election and quit before he is fired.

I pretty much agree with this, but I think that the "most likely result" will not be a CPC minority. Unless something disasterous happens during the possible election, Harper will probably manage to pull off a majority.

[fellowtraveller]

Not many people get to where Dion is at by being a "very nice man". Given the situation with the party, there's not much that he really can do, and he knows it. He doesn't have the backing, nor is the party strong enough, for him to talk as tough as he would like to. So the best he can do is grin and bear it, and wait for the inevitable.

We cannot overlook personal considerations. Dion also knows that what is ineviatble is that he is done like dinner as leader of the Liberals. He will lose the next election, and he will be dumped right after that. So, if he wants to control his personal destiny somewhat, he'll either have to suffer a defeat at the polls soon and resign immediately after, or quit soon. That is also a possibility.

[fellowtraveller]

I pretty much agree with this, but I think that the "most likely result" will not be a CPC minority. Unless something disasterous happens during the possible election, Harper will probably manage to pull off a majority.

The result is simialr though, for Dion- he is done. All that is left is the timing of his departure.

[jdobbin]

The result is simialr though, for Dion- he is done. All that is left is the timing of his departure.

Which some predict might come this week. He might resign if he loses the confidence of the caucus tomorrow morning.

[geoffrey]

He might resign if he loses the confidence of the caucus tomorrow morning.

Pardon my ignorance, but how will that happened?

And wouldn't it be highly risky for the Liberals to kick Dion to the curb and be at very high risk for an election? If Dion is removed in the next few days, the Tories will likely pair with any Liberals absent for the vote and have the government fall.

The momentum is really spinning up for a big majority win regardless if Dion stays or goes tomorrow.

[jdobbin]

Pardon my ignorance, but how will that happened?

And wouldn't it be highly risky for the Liberals to kick Dion to the curb and be at very high risk for an election? If Dion is removed in the next few days, the Tories will likely pair with any Liberals absent for the vote and have the government fall.

The momentum is really spinning up for a big majority win regardless if Dion stays or goes tomorrow.

The rumour mill all day is that some in the Quebec wing will ask for his resignation. If he doesn't resign, the caucus could call for a vote and toss him out. I don't know how much support there is for that.

I agree that if the Liberals don't get their act together, they could let the Tories deliver the largest majority in Canadian history. I doubt there would be a Liberal leadership candidate anywhere in Parliament.

[jdobbin]

Overall a pretty vague speech. The only solid info was that next GST cut will come in the next budget and that Kyoto was dead. Still, no real details.

We'll see what happens in the Liberal caucus tomorrow. They could ask Dion to resign. They might decide to go into the election as a means to getting rid of the leader. Or most likely, they will vote in favour of the throne speech and deal with the issues as they come up.

[old_bold&cold]

Well the speech did not hold out any real surprises, and while being more confrontational then some would have liked, it did cover all the things that Harper has really said all summer. The packaging of the crime bills into one and have it a confidence matter, will not be a big deal as most already voted in favour of those bills already. It will be an interesting night for the Liberal cacus, as they really are in no position to push anything and also in no position for an election, with resignations today of some key people, and others threatening not to run Liberal, if an election was called. That sounds like the knives are out for Dion and now they do not try to hide this, even from the public.

[mikedavid00]

Overall a pretty vague speech. The only solid info was that next GST cut will come in the next budget and that Kyoto was dead. Still, no real details.

We'll see what happens in the Liberal caucus tomorrow. They could ask Dion to resign. They might decide to go into the election as a means to getting rid of the leader. Or most likely, they will vote in favour of the throne speech and deal with the issues as they come up.

Well we're now back to 2050 again as far as emissions which I always said was a realistic target.

Mikeal Jean and her Seperatist, FLQ (terrorist) toasting husband did a really good job.

[M.Dancer]

Well then Bloc won't support it but they risk nothing in that at all.

Dion is mort homme marchons

[Wilber]

We'll see what happens in the Liberal caucus tomorrow. They could ask Dion to resign. They might decide to go into the election as a means to getting rid of the leader. Or most likely, they will vote in favour of the throne speech and deal with the issues as they come up.

Wouldn't be surprised. They will wait to see the legislation praying that Harper really screws up on something. If he doesn't, the longer they delay the more they lose credibility. They really are between a rock and a hard place.

[capricorn]

Overall a pretty vague speech. The only solid info was that next GST cut will come in the next budget and that Kyoto was dead. Still, no real details.

IMO this is even more reason for the opposition parties not to vote against the speech. Canadians would not forgive the opposition parties for causing an election on a platform that has not yet been fleshed out. Their best strategy would be do act issue by issue.

[August1991]

The Incremental Conservative speaks. Altogether, it was a rather bland document. I would have preferred something more bold.

The GST will be cut but nothing specific about income tax cuts. General statements about limiting the federal power to spend and considering how to lower provincial trade barriers.

There was even the olive branch to the Liberals:

Our government will bring forward the elements from Canada's Clean Air Act, which had all-party consensus, for parliamentary consideration.

There were a few specifics:

In addition, the integrity of our federal voting system will be further strengthened through measures to confirm the visual identification of voters.

...

It will again ask Parliament to repeal the wasteful long-gun registry.

----

The Bloc moves amendments on Thursday and the Liberals on Monday. I think the Liberals will swallow their pride. There is nothing here that it is evidently outrageous and the Liberals will say that they will support the government waiting for specific legislation and specific measures.

The Liberal caucus is tomorrow. Harper has lobbed the ball into Dion's court now. It's up to Dion to decide whether he'll slam or lob it back.

[August1991]

Don Martin's take:

If there's an election sooner, at least the Liberals can argue they took a principled stand on key issues against a prime minister who was trying to bully his agenda through Parliament.

If they force an election later, after regular bouts of white-flagged capitulation, people will see them as timid and perhaps overcome their fears of the Conservatives as majority rulers.

That's the same argument I made above and in this thread but having now read the speech, I'm surprised how reasonable Harper has been.

Even the anti-Kyoto line that Martin quotes is reasonable:

"Canada's emissions cannot be brought to the level required under the Kyoto Protocol within the compliance period, which begins on January 1, 2008, just 77 days from now," Mr. Harper wrote.

I mean, let's be honest. Kyoto is not dead because of Harper. It's dead because it's now moot.

So, if Dion wants an out, it's there for him. Nevertheless, I tend to agree with Martin that Dion would be better to take a stand.

As Shakespeare wrote, "Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war."

Edited October 17, 2007 by August1991

[jdobbin]

Business reaction to Throne Speech.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Jason Clemens of the Fraser Institute told CTV News, "Certainly over the last two years, I think a number of economists of all stripes have been disappointed in the nature of the tax cuts. We certainly haven't had broad-based, incentive-based tax cuts."

The Conservatives did promise to help workers in Canada's traditional industries including forestry, fisheries, tourism, and manufacturing. But there were no specifics.

The throne speech also made a vague commitment to help middle-class families with education and health-care needs. But the speech only specified helping families care for children with disabilities. It also promised to help some Canadians get back into the workforce.

Business commentators who are generally considered political friends of the Tories say they're not impressed by Tory management of government finances.

"I think a lot of small-c conservative Canadians are disappointed with this government's economic policies," said Gerry Nicholls of the Democracy Institute.

"They haven't done a lot in terms of reducing the size of government or cutting back spending and they've offered very little in terms of meaningful tax relief."

[jdobbin]

So, if Dion wants an out, it's there for him. Nevertheless, I tend to agree with Martin that Dion would be better to take a stand.

According to the CBC, Dion is the main advocate for going to an election now. I guess in tomorrow's caucus meeting, the fish or cut bait stand will go out to the party itself. Or...the party will say it won't support him in a bid to defeat the Throne Speech and ask him to resign as leader immediately.

The third and last possibility is that the party will reach a compromise, keep the leader and abstain from voting on the Throne speech and look to challenge on a more meaningful issue.

[August1991]

The Liberal Party has issued this press release:

The Conservative government’s second Speech from the Throne has done little to address the priorities and needs of all Canadians, but as Liberals we have a responsibility to act in the best interests of our great country.

That is why our party will not overreact to the election hype generated by the Harper government.

The Prime Minister has blown the significance of a Throne Speech out of proportion, and he's shown a willingness to use every issue - no matter how important - for purely tactical partisan interests.

But Canadians can see right through this game, and they do not want us to play it.

As the Official Opposition, our focus should be on how best to make Parliament work for all Canadians. If the Prime Minister insists on making this impossible, he has only himself to blame for starting an election.

As a reponsible opposition, the Liberal team will take the time to discuss the implications of the Throne Speech and determine how well it serves the interests of Canadians from coast to coast to coast.

Canadians want a strong and united Canada led by a government with a real commitment to meeting our country’s challenges and making our lives better. As Liberals, we will meet these challenges and build a richer, fairer, greener Canada together.

I guess we can take this to mean that the Liberals will vote in favour of the government and we won't have an election in 2007.

When you stand for anything, you stand for nothing.

Edited October 17, 2007 by August1991

[jdobbin]

Spending limit proposal is something Dion agreed to eight years ago.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...1016?hub=Canada

Stephen Harper's promise to legislate limits on the federal spending power doesn't appear to go much further than a deal struck eight years ago by Liberal Leader Stephane Dion.

According to Tuesday's throne speech, the prime minister will introduce legislation "to place formal limits on the use of the federal spending power for new shared-cost programs in areas of exclusive provincial jurisdiction.''

"This legislation will allow provinces and territories to opt out with reasonable compensation if they offer compatible programs.''

The legislation is proof, the speech asserts, that the Harper government is "guided by our federalism of openness.''

Harper's Quebec lieutenant, Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon, has said the limits on the spending power will contrast sharply with the Liberals' practice of centralized federalism aimed at keeping "Quebec in its place.''

Exactly what Harper has in mind won't be clear until the legislation is introduced and the details are clear.

But Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe said the throne speech promise is "almost word by word'' the same as the 1999 social union agreement, which was "unanimously rejected in Quebec,'' although all other provinces signed on.

The architect of that deal was Dion, then unity minister for Jean Chretien. The former prime minister was derided by Quebec nationalists as a notorious centralizer.

[jdobbin]

When you stand for anything, you stand for nothing.

I thought you said that if they vote down the government, it is because they are power hungry. And if they don't vote down the government, they don't stand for anything?

[August1991]

According to the CBC, Dion is the main advocate for going to an election now. I guess in tomorrow's caucus meeting, the fish or cut bait stand will go out to the party itself. Or...the party will say it won't support him in a bid to defeat the Throne Speech and ask him to resign as leader immediately.

The third and last possibility is that the party will reach a compromise, keep the leader and abstain from voting on the Throne speech and look to challenge on a more meaningful issue.

There were similar rumours reported on Radio-Canada.

I reckon it's spin. The rumours invent a problem and then Dion will appear to be a leader when he puts the caucus in order. Dion will appear to be unafraid of an election but cooler heads and the country's higher interests will prevail.

Scott Reid's advice is behind this.

----

With all that said, Dion's choice of name for his dog is going to be a source of embarrassment. Dion looks inept, unprincipled - and he'll never be able to wear a green scarf again.

[jdobbin]

There were similar rumours reported on Radio-Canada.

I reckon it's spin. The rumours invent a problem and then Dion will appear to be a leader when he puts the caucus in order. Dion will appear to be unafraid of an election but cooler heads and the country's higher interests will prevail.

Scott Reid's advice is behind this.

We'll see what happens tomorrow. As I said, the three scenarios are in play.

[Visionseeker]

You're probably right - and it's an easy prediction because if there's an election, everyone's mind will shift to other things. The problem is: how does Dion get there?

Scott Reid offers a solution:

The problem with the solution is that the Liberals will lose all crediblity on everything. It is rare to see such a blatant statement of Liberal "values".

Reid in effect is saying: "We can't win an election now so we will do anything to avoid an election, even sell our grandmothers."

Nevertheless, if Dion says it well and soulfully and sounds profoundly sincere, it might work.

Of course it could work. School yard rules: you don't pick a fight when you aren't prepared to win.

As for being the guardian of values, I've seen a good number of conservative groups questioning Harper's values (Fraser Institute, Gerry Nicholls, etc...). But as Reid put it (a person whom I rarely agree with BTW), we are approaching a clash of vision. And if the election can be held-over while the vision debate emerges, then the Liberals could very well have the momentum.

[jbg]

Yeah, and it's not improble that Harper will set a trap for Dion using the environment issue.

I'll take my stab at the speech, having just read it (link). There are a few sinkers in there that I noticed:

1. Senate reform;
   
2. Pullback from Kyoto;
   
3. Reduction of inter-provincial trade barriers; and
   
4. Greater barriers to interference in provincial affairs
   

On the trade barrier issue, I noticed some atypically blunt language:

It is often harder to move goods and services across provincial boundaries than across our international borders. This hurts our competitive position but, more importantly, it is just not the way a country should work.

The language is similarly tough with regard to the Senate:

Canadians understand that the federation is only as strong as the democratic institutions that underpin it. Our Government believes that Canada is not well served by the Senate in its current form. To ensure that our institutions reflect our shared commitment to democracy' date=' our Government will continue its agenda of democratic reform by reintroducing important pieces of legislation from the last session, including direct consultations with voters on the selection of Senators and limitations on their tenure. In addition, the integrity of our federal voting system will be further strengthened through measures to confirm the visual identification of voters.']/quote]

It has the look and feel of a gauntlet properly being thrown (Throne???) down.

Edited October 17, 2007 by jbg

[jdobbin]

I'll take my stab at the speech, having just read it (link). There are a few sinkers in there that I noticed:

[*]Senate reform;

[*]Pullback from Kyoto;

[*]Reduction of inter-provincial trade barriers; and

[*]Greater barriers to interference in provincial affairs

Senate Reform might well stall because of the provinces. Very few are enthusiastic supporters of it...incremental or not.

C-30 can be reintroduced as a private member's bill.

Liberals support reduction of trade barriers.

Liberal while Dion was minister proposed the same thing the Tories are now in reductions in new Federal spending in

provincial matters.

We'll see though. Dion is the one who is reported to be taking a hard line on going to the polls now.

[Visionseeker]

The result is simialr though, for Dion- he is done. All that is left is the timing of his departure.

Mark Twain and Paul McCartney where both presumed deceased, not a bad club I'll say. Dion is hardly done. The fact that Conservatives persist in advancing such ideas when the polls have him consistently holding the 2006 support only shows how much they fear him.