Hi everyone,
Am new here and just thought to share some thoughts on this topic.
Frankly IMO whether Iran has a nuke or not does not make any difference to Israel or Knesset.
Israel is playing a common intelligence game. They want to pretend that they're trying to keep the info secret but after all having some nuclear capability is pointless if your enemies don't know about it so while keeping it a secret they have to kind of give away some info at the same time.
This report by FAS (relatively old but a reliable source) gives an indication on their capabilities: http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke
"By the late 1990s the U.S. Intelligence Community estimated that Israel possessed between 75-130 weapons, based on production estimates. The stockpile would certainly include warheads for mobile Jericho-1 and Jericho-2 missiles, as well as bombs for Israeli aircraft, and may include other tactical nuclear weapons of various types. Some published estimates even claimed that Israel might have as many as 400 nuclear weapons by the late 1990s. We believe these numbers are exaggerated, and that Israel's nuclear weapons inventory may include less than 100 nuclear weapons. Stockpiled plutonium could be used to build additional weapons if so decided."
And the article goes on:
"Based on plausible upper and lower bounds of the operating practices at the reactor, Israel could have thus produced enough plutonium for at least 100 nuclear weapons, but probably not significantly more than 200 weapons."
Anyways there was nothing in the report that tells me Israel has less than 200. Simply a guess based on how the intel community tends to work and report factored in with the need Israel has to keep these weapons safe, centrally located and reasonably ready. Also factor in how many missiles they would need, how many they have already armed "conventionally" and how many weapons (warheads and missiles) need to be replaced/repaired periodically and this would just end up being my guess.