They didn't swell. The polls say they stayed the same.
Yes, I have seen the fact check. As many observers said, both Duceppe and Harper were right and they were wrong. Duceppe was wrong that 14 year olds would be in general adult population. However, he was correct that they would be vulnerable if they were transferred at 18. Even Corrections Canada admits that. So, Harper was right that 14 years would not serve in adult prison but was wrong that when they were transferred, they would not be subject to what Duceppe says they would be.
I know it doesn't matter to the right wing who believe they have it coming in adult prison. As Corrections Officials have pointed out, their preference is to house younger offenders elsewhere.
The Tories want to increase sentences with no regards to the cost or whether better alternatives exist.