normanchateau

And if polls go in another direction, he won't. Yet another reason why I hope the Conservatives keep Stephen Harper on as leader.

Unlike Hamas, the Palestinian Authority does respect the right of Israel to exist. Israelis have no problem distinguishing between Hamas and the Palestinian authority. It is not surprising that the government of Israel objected to Canada's hostile stance at the UN against the Palestinian Authority. Either Stephen Harper is more pro-Israel than the government of Israel or he is ignorant of the distinction between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. If Stephen Harper has respect for the government of Israel, why did he ignore Israel's wishes on the UN vote?

I want Stephen Harper to stay. There's no one I'd rather see than Stephen Harper leading the Conservatives into the next election.

One could ask the same questions about Saudi Arabia. Has the Canadian government criticized Saudi Arabia?

Apparently Israel's actual wishes are secondary to the Conservatives' pro-Israel rhetoric.

Yes, you're probably right. Canadians I'm sure have noticed how our dollar has risen relative to the US dollar but probably have not even noticed how it's fallen relative to the Australian dollar, Swedish krona, and many other currencies. My point remains that Harper blatantly lied when he said "Canada's got the strongest recovery of any country on Earth." Maybe he should have said that Canada had a stronger recovery than any country which Americans consider the greatest country on Earth.

Here's what EKOS says about their methodology: "EKOS’ weekly tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator." So it's not an online poll. Let's hope that Compas only polls those with less than high school education who are 65 and over.

Are you suggesting that Canada did have the strongest recovery of any country on earth? If so, what's your evidence? That Harper said so and therefore it must be true? Anyway, the Opposition leaders are just as much in the dark on this issue since none of them challenged Harper on this lie. Harper knows that if you repeat a lie enough times, Canadians will believe it, even the Opposition leaders.

Do you not agree that a poll with 43% university respondents is flawed?

The Chretien Liberal government actually lowered personal income tax rates. Under Harper, they are now exactly the same as they were in 2005. Harper actually raised the tax rates in 2006 on the lowest income earners but then lowered them in 2007 to where they were in 2005. Anyone can see this by just looking at their tax returns over the years. Yet no one challenged Harper on this lie. Here's another lie of Harper's which none of the Opposition leaders challenged. "Canada's got the strongest recovery of any country on earth." It's a Conservative talking point but it's not true. We're 9th of 17 OECD nations: http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/4976597/canada-s-post-recession-bounce-less-impressive-than-the-global-economic-leaders

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_13_2011.pdf The EKOS poll is flawed. If you do the calculations, you will see that 43% of the respondents have "university or higher" education. According to Canadian census data, that is almost double the percentage of Canadians with university education. Therefore, the poll artifically increases the % Liberal voters and artifically lowers the % Conservative supporters, since fewer of the university-educated support the Conservatives.

EKOS April 8, 2011 36.2% CPC 27.7% LPC 16.6% NDP 8.5% Green 8.3% BQ 2.8% other http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_8_2011x.pdf University-educated Canadians: 31.5% CPC 35.4% LPC 15.2% NDP 9.1% Green 6.8% BQ 2.0% other

"Liberals narrow gap to 6 points in campaign’s first possible shift" : http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/liberals-narrow-gap-to-6-points-in-campaigns-first-possible-shift/article1964548/ Liberal rise is at the expense of the NDP, not CPC.

Not only is this a fun site but it correctly predicted the outcome in 91% of the ridings on the morning of October 13th, 2008, i.e., one day before the election. Here's the link to the ridings that were correctly predicted: http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php

Thanks for the link. It shows that Angus Reid was the most accurate, Ekos was the second most accurate and four pollsters tied for third place: Leger, Ipsos-Reid, Harris/Decima and Nanos. Angus Reid has yet to publish a March poll of federal voting intentions.

And when push comes to shove, I'm sure Stephen Harper will defend our Northern Passage against US claims as strongly as he defended Canada's softwood lumber producers. Bending over to the US and helpfully providing the vaseline has been Harper's strategy ever since he addressed Americans on US television and claimed, in contrast to Chretien, that a majority of Canadians support the US invasion of Iraq.

No one is disputing your point. My point, which you appeared to contradict, is that only one recent poll has shown CPC at 40+ and headed for a majority. And the only poll which had CPC support at 40+ was followed by a poll which had CPC support back down to 36%. Instead of presenting evidence contrary to my point, you merely changed your argument to a tangential point which relatively few people dispute.

When David Emerson was a Liberal Cabinet minister, he declined to accept the same softwood lumber agreement that David Emerson, the Conservative Cabinet Minister, subsequently approved. And ever since, Canadians have paying for Canada's capitulation. Another brilliant Stephen Harper strategy

Yes, the same brilliant Stephen Harper who claimed on US television that a majority of Canadians wanted Chretien to invade Iraq: http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20030404/harper_fox_interview_030404/ Harper is far more willing to disagree with US policies now that his hero George Bush is not in the White House.

Only one of the last four had CPC above 40. You of course have no evidence to the contrary.

I think that the 43% was the outlier. There will need to be multiple polls showing CPC at 40+ before the nightmare of a CPC majority becomes reality.

Well this was certainly a short-lived majority. The CPC lead has now shrunk to a mere 8 points and they'll lose seats if these numbers hold up: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/tories-have-eight-point-lead-new-poll-suggests-117257048.html Too bad that Ignatieff alone can't pull the plug on Harper. Let's see how much courage Layton has. Harper does not want an election. If he fails one more time to win a majority, the more intelligent members of his own party will start looking for a new leader. Let's hope that next time CPC picks a fiscal conservative rather than a social conservative.

You might want to read the numbers that you posted before condemning the critics. Stockwell Day claimed that "unreported" crime was increasing at an "alarming" rate. In 1999, 31% of violent crimes were reported. In 2009, 29% of violent crimes were reported. Yes, that's a slight increase in "unreported" crime over 10 years. Now go and look at actual violent crime rates over the years and you will see that the decline in violent crime rates is greater than the slight increase in "unreported" violent crimes. Incidentally, the "unreported" crime numbers come from Statistics Canada but they're not from census data. They're from a poll conducted by Statistics Canada.

I agree. Any Prime Minister who thinks that mere possession of trace quantities of marijuana should remain a crime is no libertarian. Here's Harper: http://thesheaf.com/2010/03/24/harpers-marijuana-action-plan/

One could argue just as well that the absence of statistics can be used to justify expanding government control. The Harper government will be spending approximately ten billion dollars of taxpayer's money to build more jails and justifies this increase by claiming an increase in "unreported" crime rather than statistical evidence (which shows a decline in crime): http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/845272--ottawa-s-prison-plan-won-t-work-critics-say