SpankyMcFarland
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Posts posted by SpankyMcFarland
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People may be backing the Tories but from what I can make out the actual odds quoted still favour the Liberals with both US and British bookies. They are also heavily favoured to win a majority:
QuoteCanadian election odds continue to see Mark Carney's Liberals as massive favorites over the once-favored Conservatives. The Liberals' odds have shifted firmly in the Liberals' favor to -600 from -334 two days ago at bet365.
Those commanding odds could see them win a surprising majority with -175 odds.
https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/canadian-federal-election-oddsGamblers must feel the long odds given on a Tory win are generous, ie a Tory win is more likely than the odds suggest.
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Another Globe story about another rift with a PC premier. There are a lot of allegations in here, some featuring Jenni Byrne.
QuoteThe current rift started in early November, when Mr. Houston was asked during a campaign event whether Mr. Poilievre would be helping on his campaign for re-election. Mr. Houston replied, “No, because … I’m not a member of any federal party.“ He said the federal party is a different party with a different leader, and he did not mention Mr. Poilievre by name.
The same day that a news story about the exchange was published, Ms. Byrne sent text messages to Mr. Houston’s chief of staff, Nicole LaFosse Parker, according to the three sources, including one who saw the exchanges. Ms. Byrne called Mr. Houston’s comments an insult.
Ms. Byrne then followed up with another text telling Ms. Parker that she would remember the incident, the sources said.
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If the Tories win then a lot of pollsters need to hang up their boots or fundamentally change their methodology. Although it is a fairly close election, they’ve been generally forecasting a Liberal win all through it.
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Carney is a PM in an election. As a candidate he’d be better off publicizing every disgusting insult Trump levels at Canada because it’s clear that such revelations stoke his side. But he’s also the PM trying to negotiate with this maniac and as a close friend and neighbour we are exquisitely vulnerable to retaliation.
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10 minutes ago, CdnFox said:
Which is exactly what I said. You chose to reframe it so that the numbers were more favorable to your point of view.
Have the end of the day with our social safety nets and drug programs etc we are actually experiencing higher homelessness then even somewhere such as the united states. That should give us pause, and force us to rethink our models. I'm not for a moment suggesting we should do away with the social safety net but it's clearly not doing as well as we'd like to believe
What I think should be said is this. Homelessness comes in many forms. The worst is living unhoused on the street. Clearly, America has a great deal of the worst kind. Regarding less severe forms, there is considerable variability in how the numbers can be interpreted.
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Bear in mind we are in an utterly unprecedented situation where revealing every grotesque thing the US president says could provoke him further. These are not normal times.
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4 hours ago, CdnFox said:
They did, it seems you didn't like what they said and tried to reframe it
What I illustrated for a start was that those numbers do not reflect the number of people per capita living rough on the streets. Britain’s numbers there are not in America’s league.
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3 hours ago, CdnFox said:
I suppose if the truth bothered you enough you could rejig the numbers and rework the definitions till it stop bothering you if you wanted to
The numbers speak for themselves.
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How is homelessness being defined there and is it the same in every country? I see a lot of Americans living in their cars for example. The most visible type is unsheltered, ie living rough on the street. Here’s a graph from the FT. A lot of UK homelessness is people in temporary accommodation whereas the US has an awful lot of hard-core homelessness.
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I see he’s ranting about the ‘China loving Wall Street Journal’ now.
QuoteRupert Murdoch has told me for years that he is going to get rid of his FoxNews, Trump Hating, Fake Pollster, but he has never done so. This “pollster” has gotten me, and MAGA, wrong for years. Also, and while he’s at it, he should start making changes at the China Loving Wall Street Journal. It sucks!!!
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Any truth to this story about PP struggling in his own riding? Whatever about that I think it’s fair to say the Tories have had some serious divisions in this election, especially in Ontario:
QuoteConservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is at risk of losing his Ottawa-area riding as the party scrambles to send in volunteers to save the seat he has held since 2004, two federal and two provincial Conservative sources say.
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Party headquarters has for the past two weeks been sending workers into Mr. Poilievre’s riding, including experienced campaigners who would normally be assigned to tight races across the country, the four sources told The Globe and Mail.QuoteThe Globe is not identifying the Conservative sources, two of whom are from the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, because they were not authorized to discuss the Conservative campaign or internal polling.
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Watching Poilievre in Halifax this am. He looks rattled and stumbled over his lines more than usual. A modern campaign is a constant trial, even one of sensible length as we have in Canada. Nobody is fully prepared for it.
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Do politicians often visit ridings late in the campaign they haven’t a hope in just to freak the other guys out? I see Carney was in Trois-Rivières yesterday, a seat not won by the federal Liberals since 1980.
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9 hours ago, taxme said:
I bet that you are terrified of a conservative majority, you being a leftwing supporter, right MH? 😇
It wouldn’t make much difference to my life. I doubt a PM Poilievre would launch trade wars across the globe or start fighting the deep state. If anything, my taxes would probably go down. -
I bought a laptop today. All that amazing technology cost about as much as my grocery bill. The margins in manufacturing are very small these days.
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Private care is coming, folks.
QuoteAhead of the federal election, Canadians are worried about access to health care. Some private clinics, which are growing in number, charge thousands a year for primary care and out-of-pocket fees, as many people struggle with a soaring cost of living.
An estimated 6.5 million Canadian adults don't have a regular health-care provider like a family doctor or nurse practitioner.
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In Barrie, Ont., Anisa Carrascal had a "terrific" family doctor in Toronto for 10 years, until the physician moved to a new, private clinic. Carrascal received an email from that clinic, notifying her that to continue with the physician, she'd have to pay $4,245 a year.
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Yahoo, Major Carney, the cavalry are a-comin’
QuoteDays before the federal election and after more than a week without commenting on Canada, U.S. President Donald Trump resurfaced his 51st state rhetoric Wednesday afternoon and suggested he could further raise auto tariffs.
The president was speaking to reporters from the Oval Office, when he repeated his false claim that the United States "subsidizes" Canada to the tune of $200 billion US a year.
"I have to be honest, as a state it works great," Trump said. "Ninety-five per cent of what they do is they buy from us and they sell to us."
Yep, he has to be honest…Quote
The comments come as the Canadian federal election had become less focused on U.S. economic and sovereignty threats and as the Liberal lead over the Conservative Party has tightened in the past week.https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-canada-politics-1.7516951
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Given that this geezer golf ad does not feature Poilievre, the Tories’ own polling must show that older men aren’t as keen on them or the leader as they usually are.
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29 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:
CBC: "You lead those dumb-ass horses to water if you want to WCM, but they ain't gonna drink it, cuz these horses only drink Kool-aid 😉."
So are pollsters deliberately falsifying their data in Canada? That would leave a yawning opportunity for firms that aren’t.
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18 hours ago, August1991 said:
These Anglo guys can speak French like Turner - but not like Mulroney.
Mulroney grew up in a French-speaking town. It would be weird if his French wasn’t better than these guys.
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In fairness, the Tories seem to have done an excellent job maximizing their vote among people on the right. We’ll just have to wait and see it if it’s enough.
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Again, we’ve seen multiple wins for right-wing parties in other countries when the polls were against them. The Liberal support is wide but soft. Every Liberal on TV is telling people they must get out and vote, ie ignore the polls.
In terms of message, I think affordability has been underemphasized by the Tories. The crime/drugs/prison stuff is not going to swing centrist voters when the entire country is being threatened by a foreign criminal and the base vote is maxed out already. Tying a healthy economy into being able to resist Trump would have been my message, eg Canada Strong.
I see a geezer-aimed Tory golf ad on the lost decade that doesn’t feature Poilievre. They must be hearing something about his favourability. Winning arguments isn’t the same as winning people over.
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3 minutes ago, Legato said:
Subliminal and blatant suggestive coercion both work .
Some friends of ours came for brunch last Saturday, the conversation got around to the election. Most of them said they won't vote Liberal because of the high cost of living. Then out of the blue this one lady said "I'm going to vote Liberal, all the polls favour Carney and the Libs so that's the way I'm going to go.
So as WestCanMan stated, Asch principle
What about people who won’t bother voting because it’s a ‘sure thing’ for the Liberals?
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6 hours ago, Nationalist said:
So is Russia and they had elections. BTW...so has the USA
And Britain didn’t have an election from 1935 until 1945.
Bettors strongly back Conservative win, despite a Liberal polling lead
in Federal Politics in Canada
Posted
This wouldn’t be like Trump or Brexit where there was a neck and neck race and the polled lead went back and forth. The polls have consistently predicted a Liberal win. If they get this wrong I’ll lose faith in them, which is not to say there’s something nefarious going on here. I believe that, like scientists, pollsters want to be right above all things but they’ve had a problem with polling right-wing voters for at least a decade now. They seem harder to reach and more reluctant to give their candid opinion.