ParkdaleCon

Bringing it back to the topic at hand, does anyone know why Kellie Leitch did not speak at the Manning Conference in the If I Run series?

A little over 3 weeks until Morneau's first budget. The topic of this thread will definitely be more clearer post the 22nd. I have no doubt Morneau is a competent business man, I just don't know if politically he is up to the task. Time will definitely tell.

Not necessarily a bad thing, but the main point of my post was his questionable performance so far.

It will be a wide field I think, which can be a good thing for party renewal, however, it increases the chances of a wildcard... i.e. O'Leary.

Lets face it, Morneau has had a rough go in the early months of this government. The media has actually been fairly critical of him, he has proven to not do well in the HOC, doesn't seem to answer questions very directly and now is tasked with a budget that is going to have a deficit way bigger than was promised in the election. Just how is he going to handle scrums that day?! Plus, lots of questions have been raised on his financial holdings and potential conflict of interest situations going forward... Don't get me wrong, Bill Morneau should no doubt be in Trudeau's cabinet and a prominent member, but I think Trudeau should have went with a more experienced politician for Finance as opposed to probably Canada's most wealthy MP EVER. Thoughts?

Trump has a chance to sweep Super Tuesday because some polls have him very competitive with Cruz in his home state of Texas. According to 538.com, Rubio currently is not projected to win a single sate. Pretty damning for the so called Trump alternative. Crazy, me and everyone else figured Trump was just a side show... well he clearly is the Republican Party's Obama insofar as he can attract new voters to the polls. The race for November will be the most interesting in decades I think.

I don't believe I ever said ranked balloting was a system. The Liberals should be reminded on that too, because they seem to view changing the "mechanism" as a system change as well. All I was saying is the Conservatives obviously know with the ranked balloting mechanism, they would not fair well, so they figure they might as well push the discussion on changing the whole system forward because there is more potential for them and other parties there. I understand Giorno is acting independent of the Conservative Party in this new role, but I am sure the general consensus in the party brass is that of his.

I agree, however, on Super Tuesday, the so called Trump alternative, Rubio, is not favoured to win any contests... If I was a Republican, I would be supporting Gov. Kasich, its a shame he has not gotten more attention. He is the only sensible person left in the race and being from one of the biggest electoral prizes in Ohio and being a moderate, he is probably the most electable too. Disappointing. He is the only one that did not get caught up in the side show fray that was that Republican debate the other night on CNN.

I think Guy Giorno obviously sees better paths to victory for the right in PR than ranked ballots, which would clearly favour the Liberals since they are almost everyone's 2nd choice party... I am all for electoral reform discussion, but not one that is fixed from the outset as the Liberal plan seems to be. If there is no referendum, the committee tasked with deciding this should not be stacked with a Liberal majority, and I think if all parties don't agree, it should not go through. Canadians didn't vote for ranked balloting, they voted for the issue to be looked at.

Page was on The House today basically saying the Liberals are even less transparent with their financial data than the Conservatives were. He says the trend they are displaying is very alarming and they have only been in office a few months. This budget will be the most interesting in years, I can't wait to see how many "promises" are scaled back or canceled all together and the spin will be that Harper left them in more of a mess than they could have imagined. Is this the Trudeau government or the McGuinty government? Get ready folks, OHIP Tax 2.0 is coming

My friend always sneaks out at 1pm, or "works from home" to work on report cards. PD days are a farce in most cases.

In the end this pension will give people what, $6k a year? I mean that's better than nothing, but lets call this what it is, its not meant to bring more retirement stability to Canadians, its meant to line Liberal government coffers to just justify more spending and waste, and also reinforce the paternalistic attitude the Liberal Party has always had. We as citizens are too dumb to take care of ourselves, so let us take care of you for you. No thanks.

Sons of Anarchy! I think Maxime has been positioning himself subtly as a leadership candidate long before Harper stepped down. I think obviously if Jason Kenney does run, he is the clear favourite. If he stays out, this race is pretty wide open. I hope Kenney stays out, and I think its more likely for him to pursue a united right in AB and go after Notley in the next AB election. I don't think it would be good for the CPC to go with Harper's "heir apparent". If she runs, I will be supporting Lisa Raitt.

Its a Liberal government, its a fallacy that they allow their MPs to be more autonomous than a Conservative government, in recent times, they have been far worse.

Maxime Bernier today during his talk at the Manning Conference cleared up any doubt on him running. He laughed every time he said "If I run..." I don't think Bernier would have much of a shot appealing to many voters outside of Quebec, but he definitely would be a factor in the race, and a potential key endorsement at some point. By the way, it has yet to be decided what kind of leadership convention it will be, right? Or is it assumed it will be the "points" system from 2004 when Harper won?

So where are people's thoughts on this today? I think if you were a betting man, you would still bet on Harper and the Cons winning a plurality of seats, probably with a range of a strong minority to a slim majority. But anything can happen. I still don't think Trudeau has found that "winning" issue for him... its becoming obvious his name and looks won't be enough (thank goodness). He is trying to change the conversation and spin on the niqab and C-51 debate to one focused on Charter rights, but his party still supporting C-51 really does not square well with that. Anytime he tries to take a strong stand, he ends up coming off more muddled. Classic Liberal strategy Libs need to get the hint, they will have to reinvent drastically to contend for power, not tack back to the old tired ways. The wild card is Tom Mulcair. He is competent, has a fairly strong message tract and is as ruthless, if not more, than Harper. If progressives see their boy wonder failing badly in a campaign, they will flock back to the NDP, and then as a result blue libs will hold their noses at vote Harper again. If that happens, an even bigger majority will be in the cards

Kathleen Wynne's Liberal majority in Ontario this week only helps Harper. Ontario over the last 50 years rarely has a party of the same political stripe at Queen's Park and in Ottawa. The Tories will hold the 905, which in turn will allow them to hold onto power. I have no doubt Justin Trudeau WILL be Prime Minister of Canada one day (as scary as that thought is), but not in 2015. I know the numbers pre-writ have been dire for Harper and the CPC, but a majority for them is not out of the equation at all. A Conservative majority is far more likely than a Liberal majority at this point.

I think Andrea will try to hang on, but with a leadership review coming up I think chances are good she might not survive it (e.g. not reach the Joe Clark threshold)... Who will take up the banner? I think there will be a strong push by Toronto dippers to take control back of the party and obviously my MPP (DiNovo) and Tabuns would be likely carriers of that banner. If Olivia is unsuccessful at Mayor, would she try?

I think the next Ontario PC leader will come from the federal level. Chong would be a great leader, but if Raitt does decide to run, it will be her's to lose I think. In the end it will come down to her and Christine Elliott I think.

If Harper is going to resign before the next election, logistically, I think he would have to by the end of this year... The Tories have been doing slightly better in polling these last few months and the shine and glamour of Trudeau does seem to be waning a bit. The Conservatives still have a good shot of winning a plurality of seats in 2015, and I find it extremely hard to believe Mulcair's NDP and Trudeau's Liberals would form a coalition to topple him. So I think Harper still sees a path to victory in 2015 and will not pass up the opportunity to take on Trudeau in a general election. My gut is saying he stays... if the Cons only win a slim minority though, he will probably step aside.,..