Derek 2.0

I'm not surprised the least, as I've been holding firm to my prediction of another Tory majority since the last election.

Ahh but for Trudeau to support the NDP, playing second fiddle, would be suicide for not only Trudeau, but the Liberal party brand..........once the Liberal Party of Canada plays junior party in an NDP government, they are no longer politically relevant..........inversely, allowing a Tory minority to govern for 12-18 months can be spun as saving Canada from the dangerous socialist policies of the NDP, well keeping the next CPC leader in check, well attempting to work together blah, blah,blah etc......... I think the only possible coalition that we could see is a Liberal led government with the NDP as junior partner, assuming the Tories only held a slim margin or outright lost in terms of total seats to the benefit of the Liberals.

Right, as such, I would assume their insistence on their first budget being balanced goes along with the theme that we don't currently have a balanced budget.....

I don't think that is the correct question to ask........more so why change as promised by the Liberals or NDP? Like for instance, increases to EI premiums or CPP......why would an average middle income earner wish for change, change as in the amount they have clawed off their paychecks being increased to give to someone else....

Have they suggested that future budgets won't be balanced?

More to my point on the assumption of change......

As is assuming partisan fueled rhetoric for change, for the sake of it, to be correct......The CPC have delivered a surplus, the NDP promise billions in new spending well keeping a balanced budget (some how) and the Liberals will spend us billions into the red to address a recession we're not in......

The 39th election and the first session of the 39th Parliament span nearly 2 1/2 months.......I think holding the first session of the 42nd Parliament during the traditional winter break is unrealistic......... I'm certain ardent NDP/LPC/Green supporters want change, unlike Tory supporters, the result will depend on the undecided voters in Ontario and BC.......I don't think many will be persuaded to vote for the sake of risky change.

FTFY

Define quick though, its rather subjective........If a ~150 seat CPC minority, under new leadership, opened the first session of the 42nd Parliament in early 2016, would voters care? And we will see, but I'd be very surprised if my prediction is wrong though.

If the Tories only returned with a minority, and depending on its size, wouldn't need a Throne Speech until early 2016 leading up to the next budget.....in such a scenario, I would expect (barring a near majority-minority) a quick CPC leadership race resulting in a new Tory leader facing Parliament, then the electorate or governing until the Liberals and NDP can afford another election. But the point is really moot, as I fully expect a 170-180 seat Tory majority this Fall.

A war chest, that if they didn't win a majority (as I expect), can fund another election cycle next year if needed, when both the Liberals and NDP are paying off this one.

Interesting ideas, perhaps you could outline your manifesto in a new thread, helping to keep this thread on subjects encompassing real life. ------- Do you know past member Mr Canada? Maybe you two, with the aide of past member Merlin and current member Socialist, could seed a new political movement.

I think that is a testament to the fact that those "Reform dinosaurs" have no real desire to change parties......political supply side economics and such..

No need for a new party, social conservatives have CHP and far right economic types, as mentioned, the Libertarians........as to the validity of said storm, I doubt it....at the end of the day, aside from some ardent kooks in both camps, most understand there is no path to power in supporting fringe movements. I honestly don't know where the the concern (or hope) of a major fracturing of the Party is coming from, and think, for the most part, PM Harper only needed to herd cats in his first mandate, with his task being in the years that followed, made easier by the natural decline of social conservatives, as societies views on morality have changed.

And I think you're partially wrong, though I agree their is a concern inside the party of Red Tories shifting to the Liberals/NDP, those angry Reformers from the far right are more likely to vote Libertarian than stay home or vote NDP.

I've no issue with Alexander, so yeah, I wouldn't be opposed to the notion. I'm not sure how Alexander is polling in his riding.

Then you don't understand the party.......Kenney is a sought after commodity among all the wings, for both policy and fundraising.......I wouldn't consider Kenney anymore or less a social conservative than Ambrose. I like Lisa Raitt, but would question her long term health. I would favor, after Kenney, one of Chris Alexander or Dr Kellie Leitch...... Erin O'Toole would be my personal, biased, selection, but I don't think he has any designs on it..... But, to return to topic, Harper is the current leader despite polling.......

Nah, just until the transition period between Harper and Darth Kenney has started and completed.........say somewhere around ~2019-2021, after the short lived Trudeau government

I've been planning it since 2011

Sure, or wanted a Tory minority defeated by Labour/SNP.......

Three differing polls, with three differing results, that all show the Tories improving would be what?

Like I said, I put little stock into polls......within the last 24 hours, we've had Nanos suggesting a Liberal lead, Ekos a Tory lead and Forum an NDP lead.......but all three have shown a Tory uptick.

Sure, and it puts him now where he was a month prior to the 2011 election, low 30s and trending upwards....

I think it show the Tories a few points back of where they were at this point in the 2011 election........hard not to survive a Throne Speech with a majority.