A question of confidence

[geoffrey]

Maldon,

Dion has to run eventually. He won't get the boot before an election. Perhaps better to get it over with now?

[maldon_road]

Maldon,

Dion has to run eventually. He won't get the boot before an election. Perhaps better to get it over with now?

Right. There is no way he can be kicked out before an election since LPC rules don't permit it.

But when is a "good time" for him? It's my belief that he will lose ground during an election campaign and that is what Harper is banking on. That as the campaign unfolds support for the Liberals will drop. But if I were Dion I would not force the issue right now. I'd be optimistic that I can improve my standing in the eyes of the public between now and Spring.

[margrace]

I don't understand how Harper or Mr. Tory in Ontario can ignore the Harris years. This is what scares people, looking back they can see and are living in the results of that government. There are people who think they are above the rest of us, only they know what is good for the country and that is more money in their pockets.

There is a lot of feel good information out there about job creations and low unemployment, however I would really like to know exactly how many people are working at 2 or 3 jobs just to make ends meet. One of the reasons for the low unemployment right now is the shortage of people to do the jobs.

Why are local business 's, catering to the tourist trade here and in Banff for instance, promoting the idea of bringing foreign workers to fill jobs. And don't say it is because Canadians won't do them, a local tourist site has older people coming in and doing any of the jobs availabe, saying they would rather be in the work force than collecting unemployment or welfare. There just are not the high paying jobs in our area any more.

Why are business's such as Tim Horton's in Ontario offering much higher wages and benefits just to get workers, why are there signs in most business asking people to come and work.

Mr. Harper, Mr Tory and Mr McGinty need to stop promoting their own agendas and listen and observe what is really going on. These people are living in Ivory towers. Canadians have said via the Globe and Mail that they do not want an election and please Mr. Harper we are not all as dumb as you seem to think we are. An election might backfire big time on you the same as it has to Mr. Tory.

Please listen to the real issues.

[old_bold&cold]

Real issues? The people are not evn trying to make the federal government responsible for the Haris years, which by the needed to be done at that time, and yes we now have better times for that. Real people know that when the budgets get tight they want to see, the un-necessary spending on things to be eliminated. That is what they do when there more month then money left. The harris years took the same attitude to the government, that real people had to take with their own family budget. And yes I think that the voters will rememner that, but I do not think they will be mad at those times. Instead they will remember a government that did use the same common sense to budgeting, as the real working people had to use in their everyday budgets.

Of course most people do not want an election. Who would when things seem to be so good. If the opposition defeats the government on the throne speech or at any other time, they had better make sure the issue is one that the voters just can not stomach. As for backfiring on Harper goes, he has played this so well, that the people are going to see him as being a very astute politician. Not scarey scarey. Face it Harper let the opposition yap their demands to the public and now he will make them all back down because he is the leader in this and it is showing quite well, that the others are all just limpwristed wimps, who do not know when and where to keep their mouths shut. This was a great play by Harper. I am enjoying it immensely. Even though his party is in a minority position, he has shown leadership and goal oriented policies that his team will get past, even though the opposition does not want to get this done. He is showing how to make a minority government work for the people and give them the things they want. Maybe not as fast as they like but he is doing all he said in the last election and will continue to do so, unless the opposition feels they have to bring him down. Harper know that any election will only give his government more seats. Maybe even a majority of seats. If anyone can not see this as genius, then you are not looking very hard, or you are blinded by your own willful and spiteful ambitions. This is politics being played at its best, and if the opposition feels corralled and played for fools, well they should.

[scribblet]

Right. There is no way he can be kicked out before an election since LPC rules don't permit it.

But when is a "good time" for him? It's my belief that he will lose ground during an election campaign and that is what Harper is banking on. That as the campaign unfolds support for the Liberals will drop. But if I were Dion I would not force the issue right now. I'd be optimistic that I can improve my standing in the eyes of the public between now and Spring.

Most leaders usually get to go through one election to test their mettle, but Dion has to figure out what time is the right time for him. IMHO Harper is the better stratageist and since the Liberals are divided and broke it wouldn't be a good idea for them to bring the gov't down. Besides, I havn't seen a decent economic plan from the Liberals, whereas Harper's seems to be working, not to mention the longer the Tories are in power, the more people realize that the 'scary scary' stuff was simply Liberal rhetoric and hogwash.

cheers

[jdobbin]

Besides, I havn't seen a decent economic plan from the Liberals, whereas Harper's seems to be working, not to mention the longer the Tories are in power, the more people realize that the 'scary scary' stuff was simply Liberal rhetoric and hogwash.

Something must not working since the Tories are still stuck at 33% in the polls.

[maldon_road]

Something must not working since the Tories are still stuck at 33% in the polls.

Suspicion of Harper, methinks. Worry that with a Tory majority Steve will turn into George.

[jdobbin]

Suspicion of Harper, methinks. Worry that with a Tory majority Steve will turn into George.

I think it is because there are several issues that Tories are on the wrong side of.

[maldon_road]

Of course most people do not want an election. Who would when things seem to be so good. If the opposition defeats the government on the throne speech or at any other time, they had better make sure the issue is one that the voters just can not stomach. As for backfiring on Harper goes, he has played this so well, that the people are going to see him as being a very astute politician. Not scarey scarey. Face it Harper let the opposition yap their demands to the public and now he will make them all back down because he is the leader in this and it is showing quite well, that the others are all just limpwristed wimps, who do not know when and where to keep their mouths shut.

If Harper survives the throne speech vote, given the "ultimatums" given him by the Bloc and NDP, they will be forced into continuing to try and bring down the government. In the public's eyes they will simply look like opportunists.

[old_bold&cold]

Something must not working since the Tories are still stuck at 33% in the polls.

You keep using thisas some sort of mantra. My guess would be that Harper would love the polls just as they are. Only a fool would even begin to think that once an election was called, that these numbers will hold. What you see at this moment is the old "my father voted liberal and so will I", attitude. Even you a staunch Liberal must concede that Dion and his floundering party, would be no match for anyone, right now. The Liberal funds are near broke, and I do think that there will be no funds from the provincial liberals coming, as they have spent big already in the provincial elections. And the Quebec liberals will remember that the CPC helped them, more then their own party in the last elections there. So just how stupid would the voters have to be to keep propping up the Liberals, when it is obviuos they could not run a canoe let alone a ship. The numbers will swing hard and fast away from the liberals, and once they have a open debate, well Dion will be cooked more done, then the turkey I will eat this weekend. The backroom boys still can not be seen lending any hands in this as that would be suicide for the party, and the liberal machine with Dion at the helm is like matching a moped against a formula one car.

So the numbers being as they are, is just what Harper will be hoping and even pushing for, as if the real numbers were shown, there is no way that an election would be called. Do you think that Harper has not done his own private polling? He probably is roaring with glee at all of this. But yes he will not show that in public. Once an election is called the voters will be roaring with laughter at Dion, and that I could make book on.

Edited October 7, 2007 by old_bold&cold

[jdobbin]

So the numbers being as they are, is just what Harper will be hoping and even pushing for, as if the real numbers were shown there is no way that an election would be called. Do you think that Harper has not done his own private polling? He probably is roaring with glee at all of this. But yes he will not show that in public. Once an election is called the voters will be roaring with laughter at Dion, and that I could make book on.

I keep hearing criticism of the low 30s polling but if there is one consistent mantra I hear from the right, it is that Harper will win big as soon as an election is called. I just see no evidence of anything other than a minority repeat. If Harper had felt victory was assured, he probably would have forced an election in the spring when his numbers were a little higher than they are now. He didn't then despite the fact that he really had nothing left in the cupboard for policy.

[old_bold&cold]

I keep hearing criticism of the low 30s polling but if there is one consistent mantra I hear from the right, it is that Harper will win big as soon as an election is called. I just see no evidence of anything other than a minority repeat. If Harper had felt victory was assured, he probably would have forced an election in the spring when his numbers were a little higher than they are now. He didn't then despite the fact that he really had nothing left in the cupboard for policy.

I guess you just do not yet see the manouvering that has taken place. I guess Harper really did a brilliant job, even more so then I think he did. Do you think all this corralling and placing of the opposition in between a rock and a hard place, was just done by fate? Do you think that Harper is saying I wish this did not happen?

Do you think that Duceppe, Dion and Layton all think what their recent statements have been, could not be taken back now?

I know that I have not seen this political brilliance by a minority government ever before, and I am pretty long in the tooth. As I have said in many different threads I do not belive that there will be an election this fall. But if there is the only one that will gain seats will be Harper. Whether it will be anough for a majority or a small minority, is right now a close call. But if I look at who the debates will have and knowing what I do about them all, it is not that hard to see where it will go, and majority could even go to vast majority, if the opposite can not get organized, and start thinking for themselves. I just can not see Dion even coming out as a close loser, but rather a decimated loser.

Now, do the number that are shown today take al this into account? No, and that is the beauty of this, it means the oppositions may well think they can call and election and gain something. Could I have all this wrong? Yes, but if I am wrong then why is it soo hard for the opposition to make up their minds about this?

[maldon_road]

I know that I have not seen this political brilliance by a minority government ever before, and I am pretty long in the tooth. As I have said in many different threads I do not belive that there will be an election this fall. But if there is the only one that will gain seats will be Harper. Whether it will be anough for a majority or a small minority, is right now a close call. But if I look at who the debates will have and knowing what I do about them all, it is not that hard to see where it will go, and majority could even go to vast majority, if the opposite can not get organized, and start thinking for themselves. I just can not see Dion even coming out as a close loser, but rather a decimated loser.

Now, do the number that are shown today take al this into account? No, and that is the beauty of this, it means the oppositions may well think they can call and election and gain something. Could I have all this wrong? Yes, but if I am wrong then why is it soo hard for the opposition to make up their minds about this?

Agreed. And right now I think Duceppe and Layton must be worrying about all their mindless sabre rattling. C'mon guys, don't pull the plug now. Jack, Outremont was an aberration. In a general election it will revert to the Libs. Gilles, in Spring things might be better - who knows what will happen? As Harold Wilson said, "A week is an eternity in politics".

[Michael Bluth]

Agreed. And right now I think Duceppe and Layton must be worrying about all their mindless sabre rattling. C'mon guys, don't pull the plug now. Jack, Outremont was an aberration. In a general election it will revert to the Libs. Gilles, in Spring things might be better - who knows what will happen? As Harold Wilson said, "A week is an eternity in politics".

I don't see any hope for an NDP breakthrough in Quebec.

But the NDP actually might hold on to Outremont.

The other time an NDP won a seat in a Quebec by-election, Phil Edmonston in Chambly 1990, they didn't hold it for specific reasons.

Edmonston, like Mulcair, won more on personal popularity than anything to do with the NDP. However, Edmonston didn't run again in 1993.

So my guess is that Mulcair hold on to Outremont if he runs again.

[jdobbin]

Now, do the number that are shown today take al this into account? No, and that is the beauty of this, it means the oppositions may well think they can call and election and gain something. Could I have all this wrong? Yes, but if I am wrong then why is it soo hard for the opposition to make up their minds about this?

All the maneuvering has done nothing in the polls. The Liberals have had two miserable weeks and the polls didn't budge.

It isn't just the Opposition that has had a hard time triggering an election. Harper could have called confidence when the Opposition pushed through C-30. He didn't because they were where they are now in the polls.

Everyone is looking to blame someone else for either triggering an election or supporting the government.

[old_bold&cold]

All the maneuvering has done nothing in the polls. The Liberals have had two miserable weeks and the polls didn't budge.

It isn't just the Opposition that has had a hard time triggering an election. Harper could have called confidence when the Opposition pushed through C-30. He didn't because they were where they are now in the polls.

Everyone is looking to blame someone else for either triggering an election or supporting the government.

You still do not get the point. It is the very fact that Harper has done all this and it will be the opposition seen as calling an election not Harper. That is why I think that there will not be an election this fall. I just can not believe that the opposition has not seen things the way I have said here. If that is the case then I will have to wonder at their basic instincts. Harper now will take the high ground on all issues that are wanted by the voters. Tax cuts and many others. The oppositions can not use that same thing because it would look like they are just coping. From this point forward if an election is not called Harper will make it so the opposition will be seen as the big bad scarey oppositions. The tables have turned and it seems that people have not yet seen this.

[jdobbin]

You still do not get the point. It is the very fact that Harper has done all this and it will be the opposition seen as calling an election not Harper. That is why I think that there will not be an election this fall. I just can not believe that the opposition has not seen things the way I have said here. If that is the case then I will have to wonder at their basic instincts. Harper now will take the high ground on all issues that are wanted by the voters. Tax cuts and many others. The oppositions can not use that same thing because it would look like they are just coping. From this point forward if an election is not called Harper will make it so the opposition will be seen as the big bad scarey oppositions. The tables have turned and it seems that people have not yet seen this.

If there is no election this fall, I don't see it as a victory or defeat for anyone. It really depends on whether the Tories can push forward their agenda. There are plenty of tools short of a confidence vote to slow or even make them the government back down from policies. If Harper calls a measure of confidence on a controversial subject, he may find himself on the defensive. Or do you just see smooth sailing from here on in to a majority?

[Canuck E Stan]

There are plenty of tools short of a confidence vote to slow or even make them the government back down from policies.

And who will the public see as the cause of keeping the government from doing it's job?

[Higgly]

And who will the public see as the cause of keeping the government from doing it's job?

That is not the question. The question is, "What is the job?"

[jdobbin]

And who will the public see as the cause of keeping the government from doing it's job?

If the government delays as it has in the past, I'm sure people will know it is the government itself that is responsible.

[Wilber]

If the government delays as it has in the past, I'm sure people will know it is the government itself that is responsible.

By the government do you mean the Liberal dominated Senate? The party that forces an election is spending 300M of the public's money. For what?

[old_bold&cold]

Harper can at this moment in time give tax cuts and all kinds of incentives for people to have children and along with that he may well even give psecial transfers to the cities and many other good things. He is the PM now and the times are good to the tune of 14.3 billion and how to best return some to the voters and distribute some much needed money to cities for mass transit or other things and still be able to make the books balance without a problem. The opposition will have no say in this and to defeat the government on these issues will be suicide. Harper is well past the post in many things and if the tough on crime issues are not past this time then he can say it is the fault of the senate and there liberal based and corrupt ways. He will further his cause for abolishing the senate or at least senate reform and he will be getting a pass on why things can not be done, and needs a majority to do so.

Maybe the Libs here are slow on the uptake when they is no money in it for them. But I am sure their understand all too well and looking at they leader is not going to build any confidences.

[Michael Bluth]

And who will the public see as the cause of keeping the government from doing it's job?

The people will most likely see that it is the Liberal stalling that leads to an election.

With the way things are going it is likely that Dion will take the heat for Liberal appointees. Poor, poor Stephane.

[jdobbin]

By the government do you mean the Liberal dominated Senate? The party that forces an election is spending 300M of the public's money. For what?

I was referring to delays in committee in the House of Commons by the government itself.

[Pliny]

Suspicion of Harper, methinks. Worry that with a Tory majority Steve will turn into George.

You mean Adam and Steve are getting divorced?