Federal Election this Fall?

[jdobbin]

I fully like the idea of any of the other political parties forcing an election this fall. But I think that what we are all now seeing is just sabre rattling as it just plain stupid for any of them to even think that they will make any gains with an election being called. Duceppe has the most to lose as he will have given the chance for the people to say the same thin g they did in the provincial election, and that was federalism is going to be given a fair chance and the seperatists are to be taught a lesson of humility.

You seem pretty convinced that the Tories would win a majority whenever an election was called but I have never seen any convincing poll numbers to indicate this. As for Duceppe, all would appear to be forgiven as the BQ numbers dominate even now.

If an election were to happen in this fall, I suspect it would probably be a repeat of a minority for the Tories. If that happens, it will be Harper who might be in trouble before Dion. Dion won't be turfed unless Liberal performance in an election is worse than the last election.

Harper most likely has to get a majority to secure against the threat of any challengers immediately afterwards.

[jdobbin]

That's possible but if we vacate, people like blackdog will say we allowed Afghanistan to becoma another somalia.....or worse, it could become another post russian afghanstan......

I don't get that it is all on us. Others have to step up or we will be there forever. And I do mean forever. It is like Cyprus. There is absolutely no motivation on the part of that island to settle the dispute so soldiers just sit there.

The difference with Cyprus is that if we are present in Afghanistan for the next two decades, I think we will be in the thick of a low grade insurgency the entire time.

I don't think we abandon Afghanistan completely but I don't think it on us to make them secure for the next 100 years.

[M.Dancer]

I don't get that it is all on us. Others have to step up or we will be there forever.

It isn't. The UK has near 7,000 troops in theatre as well as the troops from other nations. But if nations with reputations like Canada bugger off, it will send a profound message throughout the coalition.

[jdobbin]

It isn't. The UK has near 7,000 troops in theatre as well as the troops from other nations. But if nations with reputations like Canada bugger off, it will send a profound message throughout the coalition.

We've made our commitment until 2009. We probably could remain in Afghanistan if we heard that someone would be rotating into our place.

This is why I fear it will be forever in Kandahar. We make a commitment to say 2012 and I seriously think we still be hard pressed to find anyone to take our place.

[old_bold&cold]

The UK and the USA both have large numbers of troops in Afghanistan. But after the dabacle inIraq, I do not think that either of them have much sway in the muslim world. Britain is looked at as a conquering force for a large part of what was muslim world, but they are now seen as less in the conquering idealology, but now as invading force. NATO has down played their roles even though they do play a major part. Canada being one country where we are seen in a better light, makes us play a front and center force in this. Yes it would be wrong for Canada to just withdraw and leave our NATO allies holding the bag, it is also wrong for the rest of our NATO allies to prevent their troops from taking an active role in things to relieve Canada from its role. I do find that some where ther has to be a line drawn in the sand and a date given for Canadians to be rotated out of the front lines. I also think that the rest of the nato allies need to be more actively involved with training the Afghan army to do its own security work.

But for any political party here in Canada to play games with this issue, will be sorry the day they do so. It is quite obvious that what has been lacking is communications with the voters as to just what the mission is and why it must be us doing it. This can easily be fixed and then the backlash will fly into those who used it for political gain. I think that most people will agree, that if the mission was explained properly and its roles defined, that 9it would be supported by the vast majority of voters. So why would any of them keep playing politics with a time bomb that you know can easily back on you?

Even in Quebec, it would not be all that hard to make the effort to explain it all and get even them on side. To base an election call on someting like this,...... well it suicidal at best.

[jdobbin]

Even in Quebec, it would not be all that hard to make the effort to explain it all and get even them on side. To base an election call on someting like this,...... well it suicidal at best.

I'd say that Quebecers have a lot more issues with Harper than just Afghanistan. It is probably why the Tories are in third place in the polls there.

[M.Dancer]

I'd say that Quebecers have a lot more issues with Harper than just Afghanistan. It is probably why the Tories are in third place in the polls there.

But the latest SES poll has them up 5 points since may puttng them in a statistical tie with the liberals who have dropped 4 points since May.

And in Quebec, Harper is still viewed as the best option for a leader.

....Quebec is the do or die province for the Tories.

[Michael Bluth]

But the latest SES poll has them up 5 points since may puttng them in a statistical tie with the liberals who have dropped 4 points since May.

And in Quebec, Harper is still viewed as the best option for a leader.

....Quebec is the do or die province for the Tories.

That is all very good news for the Conservatives. Poor poor Stephane Dion. Can't do it in his home province, where is he gonna succeed?

[jdobbin]

But the latest SES poll has them up 5 points since may puttng them in a statistical tie with the liberals who have dropped 4 points since May.

And in Quebec, Harper is still viewed as the best option for a leader.

....Quebec is the do or die province for the Tories.

Yes, a statistical tie. One point below the Liberals.

That same SES poll have Dion rising in popularity in every region as well. I don't take too much stock in those polls. Paul Martin always led the popularity as leader even up to when he lost. Likewise, NDP leaders often run way ahead of their party and in the case of Broadbent, ahead of all the leaders. It often doesn't help their party win an election.

Edited August 25, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

Yes, a statistical tie. One point below the Liberals.

So basically a tie. Not really third place for the Conservatives then.

Did we already have this discussion on misleading presentation of poll results?

[Topaz]

When Harper started his 18 months, he had the Bloc on his side. This past June, Harper's bunch said anything they could to push the Bloc away. In other words, he may have burned his bridges, with the Bloc. Harper may not have the support he needs for certain votes in the future and may well feel what Martin felt like just before the government was brought down, unless Harper decides HE is the one to call for an election!!

[jdobbin]

There is an ongoing debate in Quebec now about what Canada's military role in Afghanistan should be. Unlike English-Canada where in some quarters there is a kneejerk reaction to "support the military", the debate in Quebec is wide open, genuine and mature. For example, some ask why Quebecers notice this now, implying that the death of a Quebec soldier is somehow different from the death of any other NATO member.

This issue crosses nationalist lines because even if Quebec were independent, it would still be a member of NATO.

What sort of debate is going on in Quebec?

[M.Dancer]

This issue crosses nationalist lines because even if Quebec were independent, it would still be a member of NATO.

That is certainly not a given. Neither Monaco or Liechenstien are members, why should Quebec be one? I imagine NATO would want participants who could actually pay their own way.