By-Elections

[jdobbin]

The third Quebec by-election has been called.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070811/...que_byelections

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has announced that a byelection will be held Sept. 17 in the riding of Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Que.

The seat, about 250 kilometres north of Quebec City, became vacant when Bloc MP Michel Gauthier retired last month.

Roberval Mayor Denis Lebel will represent the Tories, the Bloc will run Celine Houde and businesswoman Louise Belanger will try to capture the seat for the Liberals.

I don't know too much about the riding other than it has been a fairly nationalist area since the 1980s. If I recall, it used to be Bouchard's riding.

I don't know much about any of the candidates in the area.

[jdobbin]

The Quebec by-elections are on Monday. I haven't heard any polling results so if anyone hears anything, please post it.

Here's what a column in the Montreal Gazette says about Outremont.

And the NDP, spoilers at 17 per cent in the general election, are genuine contenders in the byelection, with a household name candidate in Tom Mulcair, the former provincial Liberal environment who quit in the Mount Orford fiasco last year. He doesn't just have supporters, he has Kool-Aid drinkers.

He's more than competitive; he's in an authentic three-way race with the Bloc's Jean-Paul Gilson and Liberal Jocelyn Coulon, personally appointed by the party's leader, Stéphane Dion. To say that Dion is heavily invested in Coulon is to understate the case. Not only is Coulon the leader's hand-picked pony, he comes from the same professorial cohort as Dion at the Université de Montreal, which happens to be in the riding.

Coulon is very impressive, surprisingly personable and well- known from his foreign policy commentaries in the francophone media. But the Jewish community, 10 per cent of the vote and normally solidly Liberal, has issues over some of his writings on the Middle East. Then, Mulcair is a strong retail campaigner with two touchstones, the environment and NDP opposition to the mission in Afghanistan. This dynamic has created a competitive three-way race that the Bloc, Libs or Dippers could conceivably win, and that only Dion cannot afford to lose.

Among other reasons, the Liberals must hold Outremont because they are not even competitive in the two seats off the Island of Montreal, where they have switched roles with the Conservatives as the also-ran federalist party.

And about the ridings outside Montreal:

n Roberval, popular Bloc incumbent Michel Gauthier won by only eight points, 45 to 37 per cent in 2006. This time, the Bloc's Céline Houde is running against the Conservative's Denis Lebel, the former mayor of Roberval, who comes with two campaign machines, his own and Jean-Pierre Blackburn's. Blackburn is the new king of the North Shore, and Lebel is running on Harper's having delivered on his promises to Quebec. He's also running, du bon bord, on the government side.

n the early weeks of the campaign, the Bloc was virtually conceding this seat to the Conservatives. In the closing days, the Bloc says it has closed the gap, but both sides agree the Conservatives have the edge.

Ste. Hyacinthe, which the Bloc won by 32 points over the Conservatives, is the potential wild card. The Conservatives have a strong local candidate in Bernard Barré. Much of the riding is held provincially by the ADQ's Claude l'Ecuyer, and there's a natural affinity between the ADQ and the Conservatives. The Conservative brand might also benefit on the margins from the massive coverage of Brian Mulroney's memoirs, which have reminded Quebecers that the Liberals killed Meech Lake.

[geoffrey]

1 CPC, 1 Bloc, 1 Liberal. That's my prediction. I'll put a beer and a steak sandwich up for that one, any takers?

[jdobbin]

1 CPC, 1 Bloc, 1 Liberal. That's my prediction. I'll put a beer and a steak sandwich up for that one, any takers?

Imported or domestic? I'd say you are probably right unless a poll done in each riding shows something happening locally that we don't know about.

[geoffrey]

Imported or domestic? I'd say you are probably right unless a poll done in each riding shows something happening locally that we don't know about.

Imported beer, AAA Alberta beef. Hi's steakhouse in Calgary. Your choice of steak.

If I win though, I want a huge serving of perogies at Alicia's in your hometown. And by huge, I mean huge. I only stop by every few years, so I need to fatten up if I come through. My favourite perogie place in the world.

--

The only possible swing there, I think, is a CPC take in Ste.Hyacinthe. Popular CPC guy in a ADQ riding. If the CPC takes that riding, the sovereignty movement is in serious trouble. It's a test for them. Are they hardline BQ guys or are they reasonable?

We'll soon see.

The Liberals are safe in Outremont I think. If they lose that seat, the party is hooped for an election. The NDP are coming up from the left, but the income is too high in that riding for the NDP to be taken seriously. Unemployment is high however. Can the NDP sell their socialism? 37% of the population has neither French or English as their mother tongue. I'll say no.

[jdobbin]

Imported beer, AAA Alberta beef. Hi's steakhouse in Calgary. Your choice of steak.

If I win though, I want a huge serving of perogies at Alicia's in your hometown. And by huge, I mean huge. I only stop by every few years, so I need to fatten up if I come through. My favourite perogie place in the world.

--

The only possible swing there, I think, is a CPC take in Ste.Hyacinthe. Popular CPC guy in a ADQ riding. If the CPC takes that riding, the sovereignty movement is in serious trouble. It's a test for them. Are they hardline BQ guys or are they reasonable?

We'll soon see.

The Liberals are safe in Outremont I think. If they lose that seat, the party is hooped for an election. The NDP are coming up from the left, but the income is too high in that riding for the NDP to be taken seriously. Unemployment is high however. Can the NDP sell their socialism? 37% of the population has neither French or English as their mother tongue. I'll say no.

John Candy used to order Alicia's in Los Angeles. I don't know if that was the reason he died young though. I refuse to believe that. heh

I have not really heard anything from the ground about the by-elections. The CBC panel tonight did not shed much light on it either.

All three parties could say they gained something if it goes one a piece, maybe a little bit less so for the BQ. I'll not cry if a federalist Tory beats a separatist BQ.

[August1991]

1 CPC, 1 Bloc, 1 Liberal. That's my prediction. I'll put a beer and a steak sandwich up for that one, any takers?

I like beer and I like steak, but I won't take up your offer.

To be safe and traditional, I predict it'll be 1 Liberal and 2 BQ. But Roberval may go Bleu.

----

BTW, the Tory candidate in Outremont has his posters plastered on lampposts with an added sticker "au pouvoir/in office". Smart touch.

There's more interest about Marois' byelection.

[geoffrey]

I like beer and I like steak, but I won't take up your offer.

If you ever journey out this way, I'll buy you a steak and beer anyways.

To be safe and traditional, I predict it'll be 1 Liberal and 2 BQ. But Roberval may go Bleu.

Not Ste.Hyacinthe? To be honest, these types of ridings are impossible for those not nearby to understand. Is there no hope in hell here for the CPC?

I may sound like those predicting Calgary West could swing Liberal because of Rob Anders when saying the CPC has a shot at Ste.Hyacinthe. I certainly hope I'm not making as big a fool of myself.

There's more interest about Marois' byelection.

Does the ADQ stand any chance? If so, what would the consequences be?

[jdobbin]

Here is the type of local poll that I thought might show some trouble for the Liberals in Outremont.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The Liberals appear to be in big trouble in the Montreal seat of Outremont, where a byelection is to be held Monday, a poll suggests.

The Unimarket-La Presse poll published Friday suggests that NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair, a former Quebec Liberal environment minister, holds a six percentage-point lead over Liberal candidate Jocelyn Coulon.

"It looks like the NDP may win this riding. That's a big win for them," Robert Fife, CTV's Ottawa bureau chief, told Newsnet on Friday.

If Mulcair does win, he would be the first NDP MP from Quebec since consumer advocate Phil Edmonston won a byelection in 1990.

Liberals have held Outremont almost continuously since 1935, except when a Progressive Conservative won an election there for one term starting in 1988. Former Liberal MP Jean Lapierre won the riding by about 2,600 votes in the 2006 federal election.

[jdobbin]

More on the poll.

http://www.cjad.com/news/565/586250

The Unimarketing poll shows the Liberals are poised to lose their longtime stronghold of Outremont to the NDP.

The poll shows the NDP's Thomas Mulcair would win with 38 percent support. Liberal Jocelyn Coulon would get 32 percent support.

But the poll also shows 43 percent of voters might change their minds on election day, and 41 percent say they won't bother going to vote at all.

Meantime, the Bloc are on course to easily hold onto St Hyacinthe-Bagot, and the Tories have a slim lead over the Bloc in Roberval.

Voter turn-out and getting people to change their minds could still hold sway. Dion is rushing a large amount of people in to do just that.

Organizationally and with fundraising, Dion has not performed well. Several months ago, I posted about how the party had taken a break of asking for money because of donor fatigue. And then as spring came, several important fundraising events were cancelled due to poor ticket sales. The party was hanging a lot of its hopes on fall fundraising activities which are just getting underway.

Nevertheless, one of the chief organizers of the party has just quit which suggests things are not going well.

If Dion cannot win Outremont, there will be an increasing sound of footbeats behind him. Given his history, he will probably fight to keep his job. As Coyne says, the defeat might not be the end for him but he will have to show how he plans to move forward both for the party and the country.

[M.Dancer]

But the poll also shows 43 percent of voters might change their minds on election day, and 41 percent say they won't bother going to vote at all.

I used to live just around the corner from the riding....and honestly, I just can't see the affluent riding voting for a taxation party like the NDP.

They have little in common with Windsor......and as been previously pointed out, a large Jewish population that has little affinity for the anti zionist trade union sloganeers...

I would bet on the Bloc.....

[jdobbin]

I used to live just around the corner from the riding....and honestly, I just can't see the affluent riding voting for a taxation party like the NDP.

They have little in common with Windsor......and as been previously pointed out, a large Jewish population that has little affinity for the anti zionist trade union sloganeers...

I would bet on the Bloc.....

In a three-way race, the Bloc could come out on top. If that was the case, there would be even more demands for Dion to resign.

[Michael Bluth]

In a three-way race, the Bloc could come out on top. If that was the case, there would be even more demands for Dion to resign.

Agreed. Chantal Hebert says it quite well in today's column.

According to Liberal sources, the resignation (of Marc Lavigne – the chief Quebec organizer on the Dion leadership campaign) stated that he "was unable

to implement organizational plans."

That sentence may be a polite euphemism for a disaster-in-the-making in the three ridings that go to the polls on Monday.

By all indications, Dion's candidates in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot and Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean are not even in contention for second place.

But it is the creaky wheels of the campaign in the Liberal fortress of Outremont that should really send alarms bells ringing throughout the party.

Three days to the vote, a Liberal cakewalk has turned into a cliffhanger with the NDP emerging as the party to beat in Outremont.

Losing all three by-elections might actually lead Dion to consider resigning.

Don't think he will though.

[August1991]

Here is the type of local poll that I thought might show some trouble for the Liberals in Outremont.

The poll shows Mulcair in the lead but the lead is within the poll's statistical margin of error. I simply don't believe that the poll is an accurate reflection of how the actual vote totals will come out on Monday. Turn out will be low and the NDP has no organization to get out the vote.

With that said, Quebec has a habit of voting against type in byelections. For many years, the PQ in power lost all byelections and the NDP's only seat in Quebec came in a byelection. Yet I still domn't think Mulcair can pull it off. He's no Phil Edmundston.

Moreover, talk of Dion being shut out is exaggerated. The Liberals have no chance in two of the three ridings. People read too much into byelections.

Nevertheless, one of the chief organizers of the party has just quit which suggests things are not going well.

If Dion cannot win Outremont, there will be an increasing sound of footbeats behind him. Given his history, he will probably fight to keep his job. As Coyne says, the defeat might not be the end for him but he will have to show how he plans to move forward both for the party and the country.

Harper in opposition went through several major staffing changes. Go back two years or so. Many people claimed at the time that Harper was unelectable and he was holding the Conservatives back. There were Conservative candidates openly calling for his resignation.

It's not easy being opposition leader.

Edited September 15, 2007 by August1991

[Michael Bluth]

The poll shows Mulcair in the lead but the lead is within the poll's statistical margin of error. I simply don't believe that the poll is an accurate reflection of how the actual vote totals will come out on Monday. Turn out will be low and the NDP has no organization to get out the vote.

So if you don't believe the poll why comment on the results?

Seriously.

[jdobbin]

The poll shows Mulcair in the lead but the lead is within the poll's statistical margin of error. I simply don't believe that the poll is an accurate reflection of how the actual vote totals will come out on Monday. Turn out will be low and the NDP has no organization to get out the vote.

With that said, Quebec has a habit of voting against type in byelections. For many years, the PQ in power lost all byelections and the NDP's only seat in Quebec came in a byelection. Yet I still domn't think Mulcair can pull it off. He's no Phil Edmundston.

Moreover, talk of Dion being shut out is exaggerated. The Liberals have no chance in two of the three ridings. People read too much into byelections.

Harper in opposition went through several major staffing changes. Go back two years or so. Many people claimed at the time that Harper was unelectable and he was holding the Conservatives back. There were Conservative candidates openly calling for his resignation.

I'll defer to your insight on Quebec. I was waiting for a poll of any kind to get a sense of what was happening. Until this week, I had never heard of the company that supplied the La Presse poll so I don't know what their record is for accuracy.

A few have commented that voter turn-out will be key. I guess that would be a hallmark of organzation.

Dion is rushing all his people into place.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070915/...que_byelections

ederal Liberal Leader Stephane Dion trotted out some prominent party members in a Montreal riding Saturday in a late and desperate push to hang on to a Grit bastion.

With Monday's byelection looming, Hockey Hall of Fame goaltender Ken Dryden, Justin Trudeau and Dion came out to help Outremont candidate Jocelyn Coulon.

The Liberals are trying to keep the longtime party stronghold out of the hands of a surging NDP candidate who has turned the race into a tight one.

"It's a battle against the NDP," Dryden told about 50 chanting party supporters who crammed into Coulon's campaign office.

The party is also looking to solidify its support with the traditional base.

http://www.cjnews.com/TOPScnCJN/index.php?...1&Itemid=86

A more seasoned political observer, Alex Werzberger, head of the Coalition of Chassidic Organizations of Outremont, thinks that when they reach the voting booth, most chassidim will remain Liberal.

The reason is mainly pragmatic: the riding is almost certain to remain Liberal, despite a spirited challenge by the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair, and it’s wise to back a winner. “Basically, things haven’t changed. The bulk will go to the Liberals. I don’t see a major shift to the Conservatives,” Werzberger said.

The Conservatives came fourth in Outremont, which was held by former cabinet minister Jean Lapierre, in the last general election in January 2006. The Bloc Québécois was second and the NDP third.

Feig said he and many other chassidim are not keen on the views of the current Liberal candidate, professor and journalist Jocelyn Coulon, whose past positions on Israel and the Middle East have caused concern in the mainstream Jewish community as well.

B’nai Brith Canada, in fact, called on Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, who personally chose Coulon because of his international affairs expertise, to withdraw his candidacy when it was announced in July.

Coulon, who has written extensively over the years on the Middle East in French-language newspapers and for academic publications, reversed his position that Hamas should not be shunned by Israel and the West, while speaking to Jewish community leaders last month, because Hamas, which has been designated as a terror group in Canada, has not renounced violence.

While saying he is not very familiar with Coulon’s writings and commentary on the Middle East over the years, other than what has been reported in the media, Feig said the fact that doubt exists about where Coulon stands on Israel is enough to make chassidim think twice about voting for him.

“His retraction means nothing to me, especially if it’s made for political reasons. I go by the first statement,” Feig said.

The Outremont chassidim are, in varying degrees, theologically anti-Zionist, but that does not mean they do not care deeply for Jews living in the land of Israel, Werzberger said.

But Werzberger said he had “a long discussion” with Coulon, and concluded that some “of his positions on Israel are questionable, but I do not think he is anti-Semitic, as some perceive him to be.

“I think he realizes that if he wants to be a cabinet minister, he can’t express his opinions as he did as a journalist and professor. I think he has changed his ideas, but time will tell.”

Feig said he is most impressed on a personal level by NDP candidate Mulcair, but added that his party is too far on the left for chassidim to consider it.

I do remember what Harper went through. Five months before the election that he won, there were doubters among his own supporters and among the majority of the media pundits. He went through a number of staff to get to where he is now.

[tom cody]

My predictions for the by-elections on Monday:

The NDP will win Outremont

The CPC will win Roberval

The Bloc will win Saint Hyachinte-Bagot.

[Michael Bluth]

My predictions for the by-elections on Monday:

The NDP will win Outremont

The CPC will win Roberval

The Bloc will win Saint Hyachinte-Bagot.

Those appear to be pretty solid predictions.

According to Craig Oliver's report on CTV tonight there is already a meeting of the executive of the Liberal Party of Canada scheduled for the first week of December. The party getting swept in these by-elections could lead to a formal call for Dion's resignation at that meeting.

[geoffrey]

According to Craig Oliver's report on CTV tonight there is already a meeting of the executive of the Liberal Party of Canada scheduled for the first week of December. The party getting swept in these by-elections could lead to a formal call for Dion's resignation at that meeting.

Don't count on it. They essientially have to give Dion one chance at a general election.

Moving against Dion in December would be unprecedented and even I think unreasonable.

[Michael Bluth]

Don't count on it. They essientially have to give Dion one chance at a general election.

Moving against Dion in December would be unprecedented and even I think unreasonable.

There's nothing really to count on.

Will it happen? Probably not.

Is it a bad sign for Dion that it is even in the realm of the possible at this point? Absolutely.

If the Liberals end up with a second place finish and two third place finishes on Monday in Dion's home province that doesn't say very much about his ability to deliver Quebec in the next general election.

Is the Liberal party serious about regaining it's status as Canada's natural governing party? Why would they give Dion a shot at a general election if he can't win?

[jbg]

My predictions for the by-elections on Monday:

The NDP will win Outremont

The CPC will win Roberval

The Bloc will win Saint Hyachinte-Bagot.

Would that be the first-ever NDP win in Quebec?

[jdobbin]

Would that be the first-ever NDP win in Quebec?

No.

[Michael Bluth]

Would that be the first-ever NDP win in Quebec?

It would be the second-ever NDP win in Quebec.

In 1990 Phil Edmonston won a by-election in Chambly.

Edmonston's career mirrors that of Ralph Nader to an extent.

He was a crusader for car safety and consumer rights.

He got into a disagreement about the leadership of the NDP and didn't run again in 1993, or and NDPer may have won a seat in a general election.

[August1991]

It looks like the Tory will win by a decisive plurality in Roberval.

The BQ leads comfortably in St-Hyacinthe.

The NDP has a slight lead on early returns in Outremont.

You can watch it here live.

[mikedavid00]

Would that be the first-ever NDP win in Quebec?

Gilles Ducept's father was a founder of the NDP party.