Can the PCC beat the BQ?

[August1991]

Chantal Hebert sets the stage:

...the Prime Minister is expected to call three Quebec by-elections this summer.

In Roberval in 2006, the Conservatives came in a decent second against Michel Gauthier, the popular House leader of the Bloc Québécois. Now that he is retiring, the seat should presumably be theirs for the taking.

The riding of Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot had been represented in the Commons since 1993 by Bloc finance critic Yvan Loubier, who quit earlier this year to throw his hat in the provincial ring. Before that, it used to be prime conservative territory. In the recent Quebec election, the ADQ emerged as the dominant party in the area.

Both ridings are expected to feature two-way races between the Bloc and the Conservatives.

In francophone Quebec, the Liberals are still in no shape to make more than a pro forma appearance on the ballot.

They will focus on hanging onto their Montreal fortress of Outremont in the face of a possible challenge from the NDP's new star candidate, former provincial environment minister Thomas Mulcair.

If Harper cannot take at least one of the other two Quebec ridings on offer, then the funeral arrangements of the Bloc will have to be put on hold while the Prime Minister rethinks his route to a majority.

With all of the shenanigans in the PQ/BQ world in the past few weeks, what happens next? Can Harper take on Duceppe? Is Marois a player? And how will Ontario voters view Harper in all of this? These are the $64 dollar questions during the summer.

My guess?

The stats and focus groups will not say much honest. It'll take gut feeling to get this one right.

[Michael Bluth]

They will be interesting races.

The Conservatives will definitely have the money and organizational strength to be competitive.

If they can translate that into at least one victory it will embolden the Conservatives.

If the by-elections go Conservative-NDP-BQ, wow that will look bad for Dion.

A fall general election with the aim of replacing the Liberals in Quebec with Conservatives and NDP could be very interesting...