NDP Numbers Suffer

[jdobbin]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...124?hub=QPeriod

In Eastern Ontario, where the NDP got 17 per cent of the vote last January, the party is averaging 14 per cent -- and the Green party is at 12 per cent.

In the 905 area code, the NDP has dropped to 10 per cent from 16 per cent last January, with the Green party currently polling nine per cent.

In downtown Toronto, home to both NDP Leader Jack Layton and his wife and fellow MP Olivia Chow, NDP support is running at 12 per cent, down from 21 in the election results. The Greens have eight per cent.

[tml12]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...124?hub=QPeriod

In Eastern Ontario, where the NDP got 17 per cent of the vote last January, the party is averaging 14 per cent -- and the Green party is at 12 per cent.

In the 905 area code, the NDP has dropped to 10 per cent from 16 per cent last January, with the Green party currently polling nine per cent.

In downtown Toronto, home to both NDP Leader Jack Layton and his wife and fellow MP Olivia Chow, NDP support is running at 12 per cent, down from 21 in the election results. The Greens have eight per cent.

The NDP has nothing to offer Canada. Elections are really a battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

[jdobbin]

The NDP has nothing to offer Canada. Elections are really a battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

I think the NDP is being hurt for being too close to the Tories. It certainly has not helped them in Manitoba. Moreover, NDP governments in Manitoba and Saskatchewan have probably hurt NDP prospects federally.

[geoffrey]

The NDP has nothing to offer Canada. Elections are really a battle between the Liberals and the Conservatives.

I think the NDP is being hurt for being too close to the Tories. It certainly has not helped them in Manitoba. Moreover, NDP governments in Manitoba and Saskatchewan have probably hurt NDP prospects federally.

True. The time is up for the NDP. And the big beneficiaries? Tories that finished second to many NDP candidates in BC.

Likely pickups for the CPC with an NDP collapse:

Vancouver Island North (nearly for sure)

New Westminster—Coquitlam

Possible pickups:

Skeena—Bulkley Valley

Surrey North

The Liberals may steal Victoria.

[jdobbin]

True. The time is up for the NDP. And the big beneficiaries? Tories that finished second to many NDP candidates in BC.

Likely pickups for the CPC with an NDP collapse:

Vancouver Island North (nearly for sure)

New Westminster—Coquitlam

Possible pickups:

Skeena—Bulkley Valley

Surrey North

The Liberals may steal Victoria.

I wouldn't go so far as to write them off but it is doubtful that Layton will be able to run a campaign strictly against the Liberals as he did last election. Even his own people are saying the target has to be the Conservatives.

As for individual seats, that is all so iffy now, I wouldn't even hazard a guess.

[geoffrey]

How do you convince a CPC voter to switch to the NDP? I'm telling ya, it's not happening.

[BC_chick]

How do you convince a CPC voter to switch to the NDP? I'm telling ya, it's not happening.

That goes both ways. Which means many former NDP voters will be voting Liberal.

[M.Dancer]

Taliban Jack back on Suicide Watch.......Ms Chow prepares leadership campaign

[jdobbin]

That goes both ways. Which means many former NDP voters will be voting Liberal.

Or Green. They could be the big unknown this election.

[tml12]

That goes both ways. Which means many former NDP voters will be voting Liberal.

Or Green. They could be the big unknown this election.

NDP voters that care about the environment should really vote Conservative. Between the two realistic chances to form the government (Liberals and Conservatives), the Conservatives have a MUCH better record on the environment...remember when Mulroney was voted the greenest PM?

[jdobbin]

NDP voters that care about the environment should really vote Conservative. Between the two realistic chances to form the government (Liberals and Conservatives), the Conservatives have a MUCH better record on the environment...remember when Mulroney was voted the greenest PM?

I don't think Harper has the same conviction on the environment that Mulroney did. There is certainly an undercurrent of conservative feeling here that environment programs hurt the economy and that it is all theory anyways.

As far as the Green go, they might be able to break from just being associated with the environment and become more of an overall social and economic political force.

[fellowtraveller]

How do you convince a CPC voter to switch to the NDP? I'm telling ya, it's not happening.

That goes both ways. Which means many former NDP voters will be voting Liberal.

Mmmmm, I don't think you can use the word 'many' with the phrase 'NDP voters'. The transition from NDP voter to anything else is actually almost automatic, as you grow older and realize how our country actually works.

One of Laytons biggest mistakes was being linked so closely to Martins minority. Not only was he perceived as a close associate of something that reeked of corruption, he is now more or less indistinguishable from the Liberals. Bad move. At the time of BelindaGate, he should have stood on his hindlegs and brought down Martin. he would have gained more seats and would not be facing major indifference from the electorate today. Despite being the best leader in years for the NDP, he'd be in serious trouble if an election were held today.

[jdobbin]

One of Laytons biggest mistakes was being linked so closely to Martins minority. Not only was he perceived as a close associate of something that reeked of corruption, he is now more or less indistinguishable from the Liberals. Bad move. At the time of BelindaGate, he should have stood on his hindlegs and brought down Martin. he would have gained more seats and would not be facing major indifference from the electorate today. Despite being the best leader in years for the NDP, he'd be in serious trouble if an election were held today.

Layton was not able to make a deal with the Liberals if you recall. The Liberals were basically on their own.

Your claim that they were being propped up just isn't true.

[geoffrey]

How do you convince a CPC voter to switch to the NDP? I'm telling ya, it's not happening.

That goes both ways. Which means many former NDP voters will be voting Liberal.

Exactly. Which actually elects more CPC members in our system. Fantastic how it works that way... Check out the BC ridings I've listed, if a small portion of the NDP voters go Liberal, the CPC wins the riding. The collapse of the NDP is a great thing for Harper.

[gc1765]

Exactly. Which actually elects more CPC members in our system. Fantastic how it works that way... Check out the BC ridings I've listed, if a small portion of the NDP voters go Liberal, the CPC wins the riding. The collapse of the NDP is a great thing for Harper.

Maybe a few seats in B.C., but it's rare. Look at Ontario (and probably other places as well) and notice how many ridings were close between the Liberals & Conservatives, where the NDP votes would have put the Liberals over the top.

Actually, it's remarkable how few seats the Conservatives would have won if NDP voters had voted Liberal...

[geoffrey]

The Liberals will move to the right though if the NDP disappeared... with no competion from the left.

The Liberals big players won't tolerate a bunch of hippie radicals in their party. The Liberal party is, and will always be, the party of business in Canada (especially in the East).

They'll never be social democrats no matter how many socialists fantasize over that.

[tml12]

The Liberals will move to the right though if the NDP disappeared... with no competion from the left.

The Liberals big players won't tolerate a bunch of hippie radicals in their party. The Liberal party is, and will always be, the party of business in Canada (especially in the East).

They'll never be social democrats no matter how many socialists fantasize over that.

I completely agree with that analysis Geoffrey...I think you've hit the nail on the head with that.

[normanchateau]

The Liberal party is, and will always be, the party of business in Canada (especially in the East).

Who would have thought it? Alberta voted against a party that supports business.

Perhaps social conservatism trumps even business.

[tml12]

The Liberal party is, and will always be, the party of business in Canada (especially in the East).

Who would have thought it? Alberta voted against a party that supports business.

Perhaps social conservatism trumps even business.

I think what he meant was that they support the eastern establishment.

Welcome back normanchateau, I missed you and your Liberal-friendly posts...

[madmax]

Who would have thought it? Alberta voted against a party that supports business.

Perhaps social conservatism trumps even business.

There was a time when Westerners supported Liberals and the Conservatives were a party of Ontario. The Social Credit and CCF replaced corrupt/useless Liberals with their own brand of populism. This populism was adopted by the Conservatives, and the Liberals continued to ignore the ideas of the west. Eventually the Conservatives adopted a more Liberal style of governing under Mulroney with high deficits and Quebec catering overiding the Western Ideas of fiscal responsibility and equality. The Reform Party once again revives western populism, and after a number of years merge again with Eastern Conservatives. Full Circle. But Alberta hasn't voted against a party that supports business, they voted against a party that has not had an understanding of the west, regardless of their fiscal responsibility, and they voted against a party that became arrogant, corrupt and stale.

[madmax]

The Liberals will move to the right though if the NDP disappeared... with no competion from the left.

The Liberals big players won't tolerate a bunch of hippie radicals in their party. The Liberal party is, and will always be, the party of business in Canada (especially in the East).

They'll never be social democrats no matter how many socialists fantasize over that.

The Liberals had no competition from the NDP from 1993 until 2004. What did they do for Social Democratic Voters?

And since the NDP number seat totals today are still around numbers held by the CCF and Early NDP, I wouldn't have called it competition in the 50s and 60s either.

The Liberals would love to have the NDP gone, but there would only be short term benefits to that. Look at polls where the NDP are not a factor, and the Liberals lose to the Conservatives. If the Liberals smell bad, people will choose the Alternative no matter what their platform.

The Liberals want to be the Alternative for NDP votes, and the Conservatives want to be the Alternative for Liberal government.

But I know people whom move their votes between all parties based upon the Candidate and the Platform and whether it is Provincial or Federal, and the issue at hand.

I don't think a Hard Core Conservative voter will vote NDP, but I have heard of people whom moved from NDP to Reform, then stick with the Alliance only to vote for NDP in 2004 and back to Conservative in 2006.

Don't ask me why, I don't know. I also saw signs on lawns in 2006 that said, vote for "anyone but Liberal" So, the removal of the NDP will be of little help to the Liberals under this atmosphere.

I don't think that Canadians will ever settle down to a two party system. Ours is best suited for a two party system, yet, even with the first past the post system, more parties continue to challenge the status quo or break apart from one of the larger two parties.

NDP actual numbers have been far worse then these polling numbers. And even if the NDP were to vapourize as some here suggest, Another party would rise up, before long, espousing different values again from the Liberals and the Conservatives. Whatever those values may be.

[jdobbin]

NDP actual numbers have been far worse then these polling numbers. And even if the NDP were to vapourize as some here suggest, Another party would rise up, before long, espousing different values again from the Liberals and the Conservatives. Whatever those values may be.

Maybe that party is the Greens. The latest poll says that the NDP ranks lower than Greens, Liberals and Tories on the environment.

[madmax]

Maybe that party is the Greens. The latest poll says that the NDP ranks lower than Greens, Liberals and Tories on the environment.

Who knows. The Conservatives were wiped out to 2 seats once. The Environment has risen to the top of voters minds, and has done so more rapidly then the 2 major parties expected. The NDP had the best environment platform in 2004 embarrassing the Green Party. Who knows what would have occurred in 2004 had environment been the main issue. But it was not, it was.... what was it, oh yeah, Paul Martin a supporter of child porn, wait, no, Harper hiding in a trailer, no, wait, I don't remember anymore.

I don't know what will be the main issue in the next election. Lots of #1 issues with the voters, seem to change come the election. Ontario is going to look pretty bleak by the end of 2007.

[jdobbin]

Who knows. The Conservatives were wiped out to 2 seats once. The Environment has risen to the top of voters minds, and has done so more rapidly then the 2 major parties expected. The NDP had the best environment platform in 2004 embarrassing the Green Party. Who knows what would have occurred in 2004 had environment been the main issue. But it was not, it was.... what was it, oh yeah, Paul Martin a supporter of child porn, wait, no, Harper hiding in a trailer, no, wait, I don't remember anymore.

I don't know what will be the main issue in the next election. Lots of #1 issues with the voters, seem to change come the election. Ontario is going to look pretty bleak by the end of 2007.

I think for the NDP they will have to decide not to prop up the Tories and go after them on the issues that are important to their base and to Liberals and Greens who might turn to them to defeat the Tories.

I have a feeling that they will run against the Liberals again even though they are not the government.

[geoffrey]

They have to run against the Liberals. Painting the CPC as scary only gives the Liberals more CPC votes.