CPC have three point lead in latest Decima poll.

watching&waiting · January 6, 2007

It is only the oppositions that are making Canada position after 2009 an issue. They know that they can not find a good issue to use as a wedge in the present and near future issues. So of course they try to make an issue about things that will happen in 2009. They are sad and I am quite pleased to see them always waging war here on this site about everything to do about nothing.

I was starting to lose interest in this site due to all the attacking and very little actual sunstance of things discussed. Few threads were on topic and the Liberal supports were very loaud and proud of the way they twisted everything. I was wondering if maybe this was an attempt to prove some weird political science paper or something. I still wonder at some of this, as for a time the postings here seemed to be controlled almost and everything was really one sided. I still do think that many here are party hacks and those who have been around for a while know who and what side they are on. I did see a definite push by the Liberals here on this site, to post anything negative, no matter how stupid about the CPC and Harper. I have now decided that I will not let that succeed, in driving me away.

My own view of how the government has run this last year or so is pretty good and yes there are some things I would have done differently, but for the most part it has been a good year. The Liberals do not want to acknowledge that simply because it shows just how bad things were on their watch. I still believe that Liberal party are still a very corrupt group and they should be pushed down until they finally have a renewal that wipes all the old guard from the party. Dressing up a new leader will not cut it will most voters. They have not learn that lesson yet, and they should never be allowed to rise to any position of power until this message is driven into them by the voters. It may take time and as I said before I do not think that there will be a spring election as Dion is no where near ready to wage an election and still does not even have a hold on his own party yet.

I guess all the ballywho about the Liberals having a new leader, when it is obviuos that it was the choice of the same old guard who are scandle mongers of the same past government, was just to see if they could bump a few points with Dion as the new leader. The fast drop in his status, will now show that the Liberals are doomed for at least the next election and maybe even the next few. I guess that is what makes me still hag around and watch and wait to see what will happen next.

jdobbin · January 6, 2007

It is only the oppositions that are making Canada position after 2009 an issue. They know that they can not find a good issue to use as a wedge in the present and near future issues. So of course they try to make an issue about things that will happen in 2009. They are sad and I am quite pleased to see them always waging war here on this site about everything to do about nothing.

Yes, it is all about the wedges.

The opposition parties don't have to say a thing. Nor does the government. Canadians make their own decisions based on what they know of Afghanistan which is often limited to seeing people getting killed or wounded.

It would help if the Tory government explained the mission and showed the progress. The length of time spent there is an issue because the Canadian military has said so. They don't want the same Canadian soldiers fighting there. They don't want the force to be completely drained. The extension to 2009 has strained the Canadian Forces. A request for an extension beyond that is likely to continue that.

So be pleased about the Conservatives if you will. I've said that the issue would have been very much the same had the Liberals been the government.

The mini-Taliban state in Pakistan makes a decisive victory in Afghanistan a very difficult goal.

mikedavid00 · January 6, 2007

Canadians, I believe will see through this Liberal political game playing

When have they seen through political game playing before?

mikedavid00 · January 6, 2007

It may take time and as I said before I do not think that there will be a spring election as Dion is no where near ready to wage an election and still does not even have a hold on his own party yet.

Bingo.

I'll even put out that he will never get a hold of his party and will be over thrown by his own party. Dion is not respected by his party IMO. Maybe the French wing but that's it.

He's a failed leader as I predicted he would be and it's beginning to show. He has no clue about Canada. He's a completely segregated Quebecer. A liberal idealist who has no clue.

mikedavid00 · January 6, 2007

The mini-Taliban state in Pakistan makes a decisive victory in Afghanistan a very difficult goal.

I agree. And this is why I believe we should pull out.

We should also stop letting those people into Canada. The 3rd most immigrants to Canada come from Pakistan.

We *will* see some major problems if we don't remedy this.

Catchme · January 6, 2007

The CPC and Liberals are in a dead heat, the poll had a 3.1 % margin of error, good try though on trying to spin those CPC wheels into a lead.

The poll also showed that indeed the NDP have gone up since the poll prior, while the Greens have dropped, guess there are some women and men out there pretty ticked off at May! Look for those numbers to keep dropping for the Green, unless May can now grab from the CPC as she is trying.

But the major story is in the regional numbers:

Quebec, the Bloc had 41 per cent, compared with 27 per cent for the Liberals, 14 per cent for the Tories, 11 per cent for the NDP and five per cent for the Greens, there has never been a federal leader more un-popular in PQ than Harper.

The Liberals now have 27% and the Cons 14%, the closing of the gap has nothing to do with the new leader the Libs have finally gotten. It has everything to do with bad Harper policies. Look for those numbers to keep dropping for the CPC in PQ, they may be able to retain a couple of their 7 seats in Quebec City but that is it. Also look for Green numbers to drop in PQ.

mikedavid00 · January 6, 2007

the closing of the gap (in Quebec) has nothing to do with the new leader the Libs have finally gotten.

LOL!! HAHAHA!!

August1991 · January 6, 2007

But the major story is in the regional numbers:

From the link in the OP:

In Ontario and Quebec, however, the survey numbers indicate the Liberals had an edge on the Tories.
The poll gave the Liberals 40 per cent support in Ontario, compared with 35 per cent for the Conservatives, 13 per cent for the NDP and 11 per cent for the Greens. In Quebec, the Bloc had 41 per cent, compared with 27 per cent for the Liberals, 14 per cent for the Tories, 11 per cent for the NDP and five per cent for the Greens. The margins of error are higher for regional samples.

There is no way the NDP is at 11 % in Quebec and the Tory support is concentrated in the Quebec City and elsewhere which means they'll likely keep their 10 Quebec seats.

Overall, I draw only one conclusion from this poll: there will be no election any time soon. The NDP and Bloc don't want one. Neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives want an election that will just return them to where they are now. The only party that wants an election is the Greens but then they don't have a say in the matter.

Incidentally, the Bloc at 41% in Quebec is the worst scenario possible. The "winning conditions" are clearly not there so even if the PQ wins the upcoming election, the referendum will go nowhere. But then at 41%, the Bloc and the sovereigntists are a force to reckon with.

Catchme · January 7, 2007

Actually, Decima tends to put the NDP 2 points lower than any other polling org does. We will see in a couple of days when the others come out.

No, the CPC will not keep ALL their seats in PQ, the numbers don't support it, they would have to make a huge rebound, and it's not possible given why PQ is MAD.

Ricki Bobbi · January 7, 2007

The CPC and Liberals are in a dead heat, the poll had a 3.1 % margin of error, good try though on trying to spin those CPC wheels into a lead.

The Conservatives are up three points.

You do understand how margin of error works, don't you?

It means that it is just as likely the Conservatives are up 6 points as the Liberals and Conservatives are exactly tied. :rolleyes:

Argus · January 7, 2007

Actually, this poll is in spite of canada being involved in an unpopular war, although a long stretch of high casualties would definitely affect things.

Foreign Affairs Journal has put out a rather grim assessment of the situation in Afghanistan. This recent poll was conducted in a lull. The situation was similar last winter. In the spring, the Taliban are expected to be back strong.

What you mean is, someone you've never previously heard of wrote an article for a magazine which expressed his opinion on what needed to be done in Afghanistan.

jdobbin · January 7, 2007

What you mean is, someone you've never previously heard of wrote an article for a magazine which expressed his opinion on what needed to be done in Afghanistan.

Actually, I read Barnett Rubin before the Taliban ever emerged in Afghanistan. He is quite enlightening about the history of the place if you're willing to listen.

http://www.asiasource.org/news/special_reports/rubin.cfm

mikedavid00 · January 7, 2007

What you mean is, someone you've never previously heard of wrote an article for a magazine which expressed his opinion on what needed to be done in Afghanistan.

Lol! That's a classic!

Catchme · January 7, 2007

The CPC and Liberals are in a dead heat, the poll had a 3.1 % margin of error, good try though on trying to spin those CPC wheels into a lead.

The Conservatives are up three points.

You do understand how margin of error works, don't you?

It means that it is just as likely the Conservatives are up 6 points as the Liberals and Conservatives are exactly tied.

Of course I do do you?

Apparently not!, it could even be, CPC down 3.1 points and the Liberals up 3.1 points, thereby the Liberals could be in the lead. Or even the NDP up 3.1 points further and them both down.

The margin of error is + or - 3.1 for ALL parties. Thereby rendering the results of the poll at a dead heat between the Liberals and CPC and nothing more. Nothing can be determined from this poll actually.

You can bet if it meant the CPC were 6 points ahead Decima would have reported that! :rolleyes:

Ricki Bobbi · January 7, 2007

Of course I do do you?
Apparently not!, it could even be, CPC down 3.1 points and the Liberals up 3.1 points, thereby the Liberals could be in the lead. Or even the NDP up 3.1 points further and them both down.

The margin of error is + or - 3.1 for ALL parties. Thereby rendering the results of the poll at a dead heat between the Liberals and CPC and nothing more. Nothing can be determined from this poll actually.

You can bet if it meant the CPC were 6 points ahead Decima would have reported that!

I sure hope you get to work as the Liberal's pollster with such sophisticated knowledge of polling techniques.

Nice analysis. :rolleyes:

Catchme · January 7, 2007

Of course I do do you?
Apparently not!, it could even be, CPC down 3.1 points and the Liberals up 3.1 points, thereby the Liberals could be in the lead. Or even the NDP up 3.1 points further and them both down.

The margin of error is + or - 3.1 for ALL parties. Thereby rendering the results of the poll at a dead heat between the Liberals and CPC and nothing more. Nothing can be determined from this poll actually.

You can bet if it meant the CPC were 6 points ahead Decima would have reported that!

I sure hope you get to work as the Liberal's pollster with such sophisticated knowledge of polling techniques.

Nice analysis.

At least it is actually factual, unlike saying the CPC are ahead, and not even posting the margin of error that shows in fact they are NOT!

People out there, beware please of polls that are stated without their showing the margin of error, stats without the margin of error showing are useless, that is why news that cites polls always SAY the margin of error!

Tories, Liberals tied, poll suggests
By JOHN WARD

OTTAWA (CP) - A new poll suggests the federal Liberals are rebuilding their strength in Quebec and at year-end may have been in a dead heat with the Conservatives in support across the country.

As rumours swirl about a possible shuffle in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's cabinet and commentators muse about a possible spring election, the new poll data suggest that support for the two main parties is on a see-saw.

The Decima Research survey conducted December 27-30 and provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggests the Conservatives had 34 per cent support nationally, compared with 31 per cent for the Liberals. The difference is within the poll's 3.1-percentage-point margin of error.

The survey also indicated the NDP had 15 per cent support, the Bloc Quebecois 10 per cent and the Green party eight per cent.

In an earlier Decima poll last month, the Conservatives were at 32 per cent, compared with 35 per cent for the Liberals, placing the parties in a virtual tie then as well because of the margin of error.

CNews

Ricki Bobbi · January 7, 2007

At least it is actually factual, unlike saying the CPC are ahead, and not even posting the margin of error that shows in fact they are NOT!
People out there, beware please of polls that are stated without their showing the margin of error, stats without the margin of error showing are useless, that is why news that cites polls always SAY the margin of error!

Do you have any clue how polling works? In your own words explain what the term "margin of error" means.

I assure you it doesn't mean what you wrote below...

Apparently not!, it could even be, CPC down 3.1 points and the Liberals up 3.1 points, thereby the Liberals could be in the lead. Or even the NDP up 3.1 points further and them both down.
The margin of error is + or - 3.1 for ALL parties. Thereby rendering the results of the poll at a dead heat between the Liberals and CPC and nothing more. Nothing can be determined from this poll actually.

jacobhelliwell · January 7, 2007

What I always found interesting is how Harper (so he says), never checks or reads the polls, not on the first day of campaigning, not on election day, not even half way through his term.

Ricki Bobbi · January 7, 2007

What I always found interesting is how Harper (so he says), never checks or reads the polls, not on the first day of campaigning, not on election day, not even half way through his term.

Welcome to the board. Please provide sources when you attribute information or a given belief to somebody. Otherwise the board just ends up being a bunch of innuendo and the debate is pretty weak.

geoffrey · January 7, 2007

What I always found interesting is how Harper (so he says), never checks or reads the polls, not on the first day of campaigning, not on election day, not even half way through his term.

Obviously he did. He shuffled his cabinet on the environment.

Welcome to the forum.

Catchme · January 7, 2007

I do but you do not apparently again I will post:

The Decima Research survey conducted December 27-30 and provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggests the Conservatives had 34 per cent support nationally, compared with 31 per cent for the Liberals. The difference is within the poll's 3.1-percentage-point margin of error....In an earlier Decima poll last month, the Conservatives were at 32 per cent, compared with 35 per cent for the Liberals, placing the parties in a virtual tie then as well because of the margin of error.

Margin of Error

A measurement of the accuracy of the results of a survey. Example: A margin of error of plus or minus 3.5% means that there is a 95% chance that the responses of the target population as a whole would fall somewhere between 3.5% more or 3.5% less than the responses of the sample (a 7% spread). However, for any specific question, the margin of error could be greater or less than plus or minus 3.5%.

www.nustats.com/Glossary.htm

an important fact, the margin of error, is often overlooked

www.notrain-nogain.org/Train/Exer/Num/poll.asp

As I said, the margin of error could be + or - 3.1 for either one. You have to always provide margin of error and take it into consideration when looking at polls.

Face it, they are tied at best!

Ricki Bobbi · January 7, 2007

The Decima Research survey conducted December 27-30 and provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, suggests the Conservatives had 34 per cent support nationally, compared with 31 per cent for the Liberals. The difference is within the poll's 3.1-percentage-point margin of error....In an earlier Decima poll last month, the Conservatives were at 32 per cent, compared with 35 per cent for the Liberals, placing the parties in a virtual tie then as well because of the margin of error.

Margin of Error

A measurement of the accuracy of the results of a survey. Example: A margin of error of plus or minus 3.5% means that there is a 95% chance that the responses of the target population as a whole would fall somewhere between 3.5% more or 3.5% less than the responses of the sample (a 7% spread). However, for any specific question, the margin of error could be greater or less than plus or minus 3.5%.

Face it, they are tied at best!

Why would you post something that proves you are wrong?

I will use the example in the definition of Margin of Error you quoted to explain why you are wrong.

A margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 means there is a 95% chance that the response of the Canadian public as a whole would fall somehwere between a 0.1 % Liberal lead and a 6.1% Conservative lead (a 6.2% spread).

It is equally as likely the Liberals have a 0.1% lead as it is that the Conservatives have a 6.1% lead.

Do explain how that means they are tied?