CPC have three point lead in latest Decima poll.

Ricki Bobbi · January 3, 2007

Here is the poll. (link)

Very interesting stuff.

If an election were held today it would mean another CPC minority with even tighter numbers. The Greens are a wild card. They could end up tipping the balance for some Ontario seats to the Conservatives, which would partially offset their losses in Quebec.

The real losers out of the deal look like the NDP...

Fortunata · January 3, 2007

The real losers out of the deal look like the NDP...

Ah gee whiz, that just breaks my heart ......... <sniff> Bye,bye Jack.

fellowtraveller · January 4, 2007

One theory on the steady decline of the NDP is that anybody who has seen a porn movie has seen a moustache just like Laytons. Everybody is thinking 'hey, where have I seen that guy before?', and it is not a positive association.

Ricki Bobbi · January 4, 2007

One theory on the steady decline of the NDP is that anybody who has seen a porn movie has seen a moustache just like Laytons. Everybody is thinking 'hey, where have I seen that guy before?', and it is not a positive association.

You have negative associations with porn movies?

mikedavid00 · January 6, 2007

If an election were held today it would mean another CPC minority with even tighter numbers. The Greens are a wild card. They could end up tipping the balance for some Ontario seats to the Conservatives, which would partially offset their losses in Quebec.
The real losers out of the deal look like the NDP...

"The poll gave the Liberals 40 per cent support in Ontario, compared with 35 per cent for the Conservatives"

I want to see what the next poll is like and see if Wajid Khan affected anything.

I must say, I am very suprised to see Layton and the NDP heading down in the polls.. Maybe it's because he's been known to work with Harper or epopel are clueing in that Layton cannot offer anyone real representation.

sharkman · January 6, 2007

These poll results are without any campaigning whatsoever. In a full blown campaign, they would do much better.

jdobbin · January 6, 2007

These poll results are without any campaigning whatsoever. In a full blown campaign, they would do much better.

It depends on what happens in Afghanistan. I think the summer and fall casualties partly dropped the Conservatives in the polls at that time.

Experts are saying the spring could bring renewed fighting and casualties.

sharkman · January 6, 2007

Actually, this poll is in spite of canada being involved in an unpopular war, although a long stretch of high casualties would definitely affect things.

jdobbin · January 6, 2007

Actually, this poll is in spite of canada being involved in an unpopular war, although a long stretch of high casualties would definitely affect things.

Foreign Affairs Journal has put out a rather grim assessment of the situation in Afghanistan. This recent poll was conducted in a lull. The situation was similar last winter. In the spring, the Taliban are expected to be back strong.

Ricki Bobbi · January 6, 2007

Foreign Affairs Journal has put out a rather grim assessment of the situation in Afghanistan. This recent poll was conducted in a lull. The situation was similar last winter. In the spring, the Taliban are expected to be back strong.

Fair enough. How long does the fighting season last? Will there be another lull in the fall?

I've heard from other sources that the timing of the next election will definitely take into consideration the expected intensity of fighting in Arghanistan.

So I guess this poll is accurate because the next election will take place in a lull.

Canuck E Stan · January 6, 2007

Actually, this poll is in spite of canada being involved in an unpopular war, although a long stretch of high casualties would definitely affect things.

Foreign Affairs Journal has put out a rather grim assessment of the situation in Afghanistan. This recent poll was conducted in a lull. The situation was similar last winter. In the spring, the Taliban are expected to be back strong.

National Post

He has clearly enjoyed the responsibility of acting as Stephen Harper's special advisor on the Middle East and Central Asia and when new Liberal leader, Stephane Dion, told him to choose between that job and the Liberal caucus, the outcome was never in doubt.
Mr. Khan said he had offered to advise Mr. Dion in a similar capacity but didn't receive a call back from the new leader.

When he was asked about Mr. Dion's position on Afghanistan, he was withering. "Tell me more about Mr. Dion's foreign policy because I haven't heard anything from him," he said at a news conference yesterday.

What possible change will Dion make that will alter the polls in regard to Afghanistan?

If Dion says he'll pull the troops out, he loses face in a war the Liberals put the troops into.

If he stays in Afghanistan, what difference will that make to the situation and the polls?

Maybe he can join Jack in a talk to the Taliban.

With Khan gone, Dion lost someone who could have given him some credibility to a stance he could take in the Afghanistan war.

Dion may make an issue of Afghanistan, but like the environment, the Liberals will look like they are doing the change of heart on issues just to win votes.

Canadians, I believe will see through this Liberal political game playing

geoffrey · January 6, 2007

Canadians, I believe will see through this Liberal political game playing

I agree. It takes less than a 30 second commerical to show that Dion is a leader in environmental neglect.

"Mr. Dion signed Kyoto... then did nothing. During the 13 years of Liberal reign, GHG emissions increased faster than ever, 3 times as fast as in the United States. Contaminated sites in Canada increased, more reservations lost clean drinking water. Is that the Canada you want your children to grow up in? Our plan may take 20 years (my expected timeframe for the new one), but we have a plan, it will work, where as the Libearls have only words. Vote Conservative."

End of story. Dion is destroyed. Go back to teaching... ugh... sociology.

jdobbin · January 6, 2007

What possible change will Dion make that will alter the polls in regard to Afghanistan?
If Dion says he'll pull the troops out, he loses face in a war the Liberals put the troops into.

If he stays in Afghanistan, what difference will that make to the situation and the polls?

Maybe he can join Jack in a talk to the Taliban.

With Khan gone, Dion lost someone who could have given him some credibility to a stance he could take in the Afghanistan war.

Dion may make an issue of Afghanistan, but like the environment, the Liberals will look like they are doing the change of heart on issues just to win votes.

Canadians, I believe will see through this Liberal political game playing

Baloney. Khan was a provincial Conservative who joined the Liberals to win office. Dion was quite correct to have asked him where his loyalties were. Even before Dion came to office, there was talk that Khan would cross the

floor. No leader can appear wishy washy on that.

As far as Afghanistan goes, all Dion has to say is that Canadian troops come home after their commitment in 2009.

You think that Harper has committed beyond that?

geoffrey · January 6, 2007

You think that Harper has committed beyond that?

We shouldn't. It's someone else's turn. We should take over Kabul or something after 2009, out of the fire. Let the French or Germans take over the South. :lol:

Like that would happen.

jdobbin · January 6, 2007

We shouldn't. It's someone else's turn. We should take over Kabul or something after 2009, out of the fire. Let the French or Germans take over the South.
Like that would happen.

If he commits beyond 2009 and the situation has not improved, do you think it will cost him the election?

geoffrey · January 6, 2007

We shouldn't. It's someone else's turn. We should take over Kabul or something after 2009, out of the fire. Let the French or Germans take over the South.

Like that would happen.

If he commits beyond 2009 and the situation has not improved, do you think it will cost him the election?

Tough to say, looking at one issue in a vacuum.

It won't help, I'll tell you that much.

jdobbin · January 6, 2007

Tough to say, looking at one issue in a vacuum.
It won't help, I'll tell you that much.

Today a Canadian soldier was badly hurt in a heavily armoured vehicle next to a town Canadians captured last year. It is now once more a hot spot. This is the type of bad news that people in Canada will eventually ask: why is it happening? If the answer is "stay the course" it will be about as successful as Bush's strategy in Iraq.

kimmy · January 6, 2007

After Stephane Dion won the leadership, Liberal cheerleaders on this site were pointing to the polls showing Liberal gains and all but declaring the next election won already. Any suggestion that it was a short-term "bump" resulting from the convention was greeted with accusations of "desparations" and :lol: icons.

Now? Looks like maybe that big lead the Liberals had right after the convention might have been a temporary "bump" after all.

As for Afghanistan... I don't think a promise to withdraw after our committment expires in 2009 is exactly a Magic Bullet. 2009 seems like a long way off, and for the voter who considers our Afghanistan mission to be the key election issue, that's too long to wait.

-k

jdobbin · January 6, 2007

After Stephane Dion won the leadership, Liberal cheerleaders on this site were pointing to the polls showing Liberal gains and all but declaring the next election won already. Any suggestion that it was a short-term "bump" resulting from the convention was greeted with accusations of "desparations" and icons.
Now? Looks like maybe that big lead the Liberals had right after the convention might have been a temporary "bump" after all.

As for Afghanistan... I don't think a promise to withdraw after our committment expires in 2009 is exactly a Magic Bullet. 2009 seems like a long way off, and for the voter who considers our Afghanistan mission to be the key election issue, that's too long to wait.

I certainly said that there would be no way to tell which way the wind was blowing until the new session of Parliament started this January. At the moment, it is a saw-off just as I predicted it would be. It is a statistical tie. People are jockeying back and forth but no issue has broken out, no party stood out.

NATO allies are already asking Canada to commit beyond 2009 *this year*. That means the subject will be up for debate again. If the situation doesn't show a marked improvement, it doesn't matter which party is running Canada in 2009. Canadians have shown a strong hesitancy about the war if not downright opposition. Whatever party that is in government (and I made this argument about the Liberals as well if they had won) would suffer at the polls as a result. And given how close things are, that is probably enough to sway an election.

Ricki Bobbi · January 6, 2007

NATO allies are already asking Canada to commit beyond 2009 *this year*. That means the subject will be up for debate again.

Who is asking for Canada to extend beyond 2009?

There is no way the Conservatives extend beyond 2009 this year.

geoffrey · January 6, 2007

Tough to say, looking at one issue in a vacuum.

It won't help, I'll tell you that much.

Today a Canadian soldier was badly hurt in a heavily armoured vehicle next to a town Canadians captured last year. It is now once more a hot spot. This is the type of bad news that people in Canada will eventually ask: why is it happening? If the answer is "stay the course" it will be about as successful as Bush's strategy in Iraq.

We don't have the troop numbers. Where is Europe? Why aren't they living up to their NATO agreement?

jdobbin · January 6, 2007

We don't have the troop numbers. Where is Europe? Why aren't they living up to their NATO agreement?

I totally agree. If NATO agreed to this mission, it hardly seem fair they put limit to their actions individually as nations.

In the year end interviews, Harper wouldn't say what would happen beyond 2009. NATO meets again in the spring to talk about what happens beyond 2009. The expectation is that Canada will be asked to commit again. For how long, I don't know.

Ricki Bobbi · January 6, 2007

In the year end interviews, Harper wouldn't say what would happen beyond 2009. NATO meets again in the spring to talk about what happens beyond 2009. The expectation is that Canada will be asked to commit again. For how long, I don't know.

It may be an expectation, but Canada would have no problems in not committing again. Especially the Conservative Government.

geoffrey · January 6, 2007

In the year end interviews, Harper wouldn't say what would happen beyond 2009. NATO meets again in the spring to talk about what happens beyond 2009. The expectation is that Canada will be asked to commit again. For how long, I don't know.

Who in NATO has the ability to ask us to give more? Possibly the Americans, possibly the British... they live up to their end. The rest of them have no right to demand more. While France and German are picking up daisies in the North, they expect to ask us to keep the fight going because they don't want to risk political capital at home?

I think it's time to re-establish NATO on our terms (Canada, US, Britain, Netherlands). The rest have proven to be just fair-weather friends, I have no interest in defending the national security of France when they won't assist the Americans when they have been attacked.

jdobbin · January 6, 2007

Who in NATO has the ability to ask us to give more? Possibly the Americans, possibly the British... they live up to their end. The rest of them have no right to demand more. While France and German are picking up daisies in the North, they expect to ask us to keep the fight going because they don't want to risk political capital at home?
I think it's time to re-establish NATO on our terms (Canada, US, Britain, Netherlands). The rest have proven to be just fair-weather friends, I have no interest in defending the national security of France when they won't assist the Americans when they have been attacked.

I think NATO is a separate issue from this one. I don't disagree that NATO has not lived up to its commitment. Nevertheless, you can be sure that Canada is asked to participate again.

I don't think we will see NATO reformed during George Bush's remaining days in office.