The Fat Lady has Sung

[Biblio Bibuli]

Peter C Newman has a great article in Maclean's this week about the Liberal convention. It isn't on their website yet so I'll just give you a few excerpts that I thought were salient.

Here are some about the new LIberal leader & the man who SHOULD have been the new Liberal leader ( Peter's with me on this one ... he's an Iggy admirer):

"Given the chance to modernize and reform itself .... to hook into the global world of progress and opportunity by backing Michael Ignatieff .... Canada'a Liberal party settled on Stephane Dion, the Joe Clark of the 21st century."

"Like Clark, he will only set the world on fire by accident."

"In vivid contrast, Michael Ignatieff, who was the convention's runner-up, personified the spirit of Canada'a current economic and social renaissance.."

"What had happened of late was that the Liberals didn't stand for anything much except winning elections. Too many people in the party were professionals, basically in it to make a living, to become lobbyists who peddle their influences. That was a culture that had to be changed."

"Stephane Dion's surprise selection was as much a protest against the stranger from Harvard as a vote for the eventual winner."

Ain't that the truth? They just don't seem to get it ... the Canadian public doesn't want the old professional politicians anymore. Didn't they learn ANYTHING from Martin's defeat to Harper? Did they think we just wanted a portlier PM?

Now here's the part that has had me stewing since the convention when I heard that Rae turned down Iggy's proposal to unite if one of them came third ala Kennedy/ Dion:

"In the end it was his former school chum, Bob Rae, who sank Iggy. If the two candidates could have merged their campaigns before the ballot, Dion would not have triumphed. At the time, Denis Coderre, Ignatieff's national compaign co-chairman, advenced this suggestion to the former Ontario premier, who declined to discuss the possibilities. Even later, after the third ballot when Rae was eliminated, had he thrown his support to Ignatieff, the 219 delegates Ignatieff needed to push him over the top might have switched, too. Despite their former friendship, Bob seemed to have decided that if he couldn't have the crown, neither would Michael."

What a miserable competitive SOB that Rae is. I was kind of glad to see that he looks like he's getting very old ,very fast, for his age. God'll get you for that one Bob!

[jdobbin]

Peter C Newman has a great article in Maclean's this week about the Liberal convention. It isn't on their website yet so I'll just give you a few excerpts that I thought were salient.

What a miserable competitive SOB that Rae is. I was kind of glad to see that he looks like he's getting very old ,very fast, for his age. God'll get you for that one Bob!

Ignatieff is not going anywhere. I think Dion needs him on the front benches to carry the fight. The longer he is there and the more seasoning he gets, the better his ability to lead the party later on. His campaign was not exactly the smoothest. He still needs to establish himself in the minds of Canadians as a Liberal; a strong one.

There is likely going to be two elections in the next four years. Ignatieff is young enough to be ready to lead then. He'll still have to fight others but Rae might not be the factor that he was this time around.

[normanchateau]

"Despite their former friendship, Bob seemed to have decided that if he couldn't have the crown, neither would Michael."

What a miserable competitive SOB that Rae is. I was kind of glad to see that he looks like he's getting very old ,very fast, for his age. God'll get you for that one Bob!

Maybe Rae just decided that he couldn't support an erratic, parachuted-in, carpetbagging Liberal leader like Ignatieff who had lived most of his life outside of Canada, supported the war in Iraq, torture of prisoners, extension of the Afghanistan mission and accused Israel of war crimes in Lebanon.

[Biblio Bibuli]

Ignatieff is not going anywhere. I think Dion needs him on the front benches to carry the fight. The longer he is there and the more seasoning he gets, the better his ability to lead the party later on. His campaign was not exactly the smoothest. He still needs to establish himself in the minds of Canadians as a Liberal; a strong one.

There is likely going to be two elections in the next four years. Ignatieff is young enough to be ready to lead then. He'll still have to fight others but Rae might not be the factor that he was this time around.

It's a nice thought ... but I disagree with the "two elections" theory.

Stephen Harper is going to sew up a majority the next time around. A big majority. Guaranteed!

And before you say ... "Look who is talking" ... let me assure you that I was never so sure about ANY election as I am about this upcoming Harper/Dion one. It'll be a slaughter.

I would like to know what Iggy is thinking right now.

[jdobbin]

It's a nice thought ... but I disagree with the "two elections" theory.

Stephen Harper is going to sew up a majority the next time around. A big majority. Guaranteed!

And before you say ... "Look who is talking" ... let me assure you that I was never so sure about ANY election as I am about this upcoming Harper/Dion one. It'll be a slaughter.

I would like to know what Iggy is thinking right now.

The reason that some people think Harper will have a hard time this election is because they are still using the corrupt Liberal government campaign. Several journalists have said it won't work. I tend to believe that.

I see another minority. I just don't know for who.

I think Ignatieff is thinking that he will have to show his chops in Parliament.

And even if Harper wins his majority, it still means Ignatieff is well placed within the same timeframe that I mentioned. Five years.

[Biblio Bibuli]

The reason that some people think Harper will have a hard time this election is because they are still using the corrupt Liberal government campaign. Several journalists have said it won't work. I tend to believe that.

I see another minority. I just don't know for who.

I think Ignatieff is thinking that he will have to show his chops in Parliament.

And even if Harper wins his majority, it still means Ignatieff is well placed within the same timeframe that I mentioned. Five years.

Since Dion was a member of the corrupt Liberal establishment, then they're going to have a very easy time with that one. Even if it's off the radar with the electorate now ... a guy who can't speak English with a dog named Kyoto? Nah. Laureen can call in the decorators.

As for Iggy. Well, one election next year ... another 5 years later ... that'll make Iggy 65. A bit long in the tooth for a first time PM. He'll be back in England long before that, I predict. Evidently his wife rather misses living in an urban & sophisticated environment.

[jdobbin]

Since Dion was a member of the corrupt Liberal establishment, then they're going to have a very easy time with that one. Even if it's off the radar with the electorate now ... a guy who can't speak English with a dog named Kyoto? Nah. Laureen can call in the decorators.

As for Iggy. Well, one election next year ... another 5 years later ... that'll make Iggy 65. A bit long in the tooth for a first time PM. He'll be back in England long before that, I predict. Evidently his wife rather misses living in an urban & sophisticated environment.

65 is the new 55.

I can't speak to the issue of his wife. That's a personal decision he will have to make just like Broadbent did when his wife got sick.

I do think he'll be around though.

We'll see what happens in regards to the corruption thing. I don't know that it will work an Ibbitson, Simpson and Martin of the Globe and National Post seem to think the Conservatives will have to change strategy.

Have some faith. All is not lost for your candidate.

[normanchateau]

Stephen Harper is going to sew up a majority the next time around. A big majority. Guaranteed!

And before you say ... "Look who is talking" ... let me assure you that I was never so sure about ANY election as I am about this upcoming Harper/Dion one.

In the last four federal elections, even if everyone who previously voted Reform, Alliance or PC now voted for Harper, the most Harper could hope for is 38% of the vote. But it's heartening to know that CPC supporters still view so-con Harper as the man to lead their party into the next election.

[August1991]

"In the end it was his former school chum, Bob Rae, who sank Iggy. If the two candidates could have merged their campaigns before the ballot, Dion would not have triumphed.....

Rae's delegates would not have followed Rae to Ignatieff and in any case, why would have Rae have gone to Ignatieff?

Peter Newman's support for Ignatieff lends credibility to the idea that Dion was an outsider. Newman is the go-to-guy if you want to know what the old time party stalwarts think. But that's about all Newman is good for. Newman's a gossip monger which I suppose makes him a good journalist.

Ignatieff knows that he has zero chance of becoming leader of the Liberal party and he will not run in the next federal election. He didn't get into this to play drums for Dion.

Dion will be around for quite some time and even the best polls show that he can't win a majority, but then neither can Harper.

[normanchateau]

Dion will be around for quite some time and even the best polls show that he can't win a majority, but then neither can Harper.

What poll shows that he can't win a majority? All polls show a a trend towards an increase in Liberal support and a decrease in NDP and CPC support. If the trend continues, Dion certainly can win a majority.

[Biblio Bibuli]

Ignatieff knows that he has zero chance of becoming leader of the Liberal party and he will not run in the next federal election. He didn't get into this to play drums for Dion.

I agree with that. He has too much going for him to sit around worrying about the smell of sewage in Etobicoke.

As usual the Liberals can't recognize brilliance even if it hits them smack in the face.

Oh well, Harper seems to be doing a great job so far. He'll do.

[Canuck E Stan]

What poll shows that he can't win a majority? All polls show a a trend towards an increase in Liberal support and a decrease in NDP and CPC support. If the trend continues, Dion certainly can win a majority.

In the next election you're going to see Dion attacked more by the Bloc,the NDP. Each has more reason to fear Dion because of possible seat lose than the CPC. Throw in the Greens and the CPC who will also do their share of beating on him and you'll see that Dion has a lot of work in store to even get a minority.

[August1991]

What poll shows that he can't win a majority? All polls show a a trend towards an increase in Liberal support and a decrease in NDP and CPC support. If the trend continues, Dion certainly can win a majority.

It is difficult to impossible to form a majority government with less than 40% of the vote. (Chretien managed it because of the split between the PCs and Reform.)

Poll taken during or just after the Liberal convention (ie. polls most slanted to the Liberals) show them at best in the high 30s.

The only news here is that the NDP has sunk and the Green Party will remain a fringe party. The other news is what happens in Quebec where I think the Tories and the Liberals will add a few seats at the expense of the BQ.

[normanchateau]

What poll shows that he can't win a majority? All polls show a a trend towards an increase in Liberal support and a decrease in NDP and CPC support. If the trend continues, Dion certainly can win a majority.

It is difficult to impossible to form a majority government with less than 40% of the vote. (Chretien managed it because of the split between the PCs and Reform.)

Poll taken during or just after the Liberal convention (ie. polls most slanted to the Liberals) show them at best in the high 30s.

The only news here is that the NDP has sunk and the Green Party will remain a fringe party. The other news is what happens in Quebec where I think the Tories and the Liberals will add a few seats at the expense of the BQ.

I agree that Dion'll need 40% to win a majority. However, the trendline shows the Liberals rising, the NDP declining and the CPC declining somewhat depending on the province. In BC, CPC has declined dramatically and now trail the Liberals by more than 10 points. My point is that if this trend continues, the Liberals will win a majority.

[Riverwind]

Stephen Harper is going to sew up a majority the next time around. A big majority. Guaranteed!

I would say that is a sure thing to bet against given your track record with predictions on this forum ;-)

[southerncomfort]

What poll shows that he can't win a majority? All polls show a a trend towards an increase in Liberal support and a decrease in NDP and CPC support. If the trend continues, Dion certainly can win a majority.

It is difficult to impossible to form a majority government with less than 40% of the vote. (Chretien managed it because of the split between the PCs and Reform.)

Poll taken during or just after the Liberal convention (ie. polls most slanted to the Liberals) show them at best in the high 30s.

The only news here is that the NDP has sunk and the Green Party will remain a fringe party. The other news is what happens in Quebec where I think the Tories and the Liberals will add a few seats at the expense of the BQ.

I agree that Dion'll need 40% to win a majority. However, the trendline shows the Liberals rising, the NDP declining and the CPC declining somewhat depending on the province. In BC, CPC has declined dramatically and now trail the Liberals by more than 10 points. My point is that if this trend continues, the Liberals will win a majority.

Didn't you say over and over again that Harper was unelectable LOL

[normanchateau]

Didn't you say over and over again that Harper was unelectable LOL

Yes, I never imagined he could get more than 30% of the popular vote. He managed to get 36% last January because of extreme antipathy to the Liberals but he's now once again closer to 30% than 36%. I still believe that CPC can form a majority but not with Harper as leader.

[Biblio Bibuli]

[ I still believe that CPC can form a majority but not with Harper as leader.

Who else is there?

Please tell us .... who's better in the CPC ranks than Stephen Harper?

NOBODY ... THAT'S WHO!!

He is a great leader!

[geoffrey]

Prentice would win a majority.

[hiti]

Seems like there are dynamics under the surface that will determine the outcome of the next election.

1. Zac is no longer the Top Cop to pull a dummy investigation against Ralph Goodale, of all people, towards the end of an election campaign.

2. People who ran under the Green banner are asking Dion to run as Liberals.

3. Layton has lost his bloom and his support.

4. Harper does not have a plan for the environment whereas Dion is primed to go with what Steve canceled, plus much more.

5. Steve has pi**ed off the women's vote with his systematically destruction of the Status of Women by cutting their funding and eliminating all reference of "equality" on the government web site as pertaining to women.

6. Dion has more heart.

[August1991]

Yes, I never imagined he could get more than 30% of the popular vote. He managed to get 36% last January because of extreme antipathy to the Liberals but he's now once again closer to 30% than 36%. I still believe that CPC can form a majority but not with Harper as leader.

One could say that he managed to get 36% despite a horrendous campaign of fear-mongering. Harper was a scary, scary guy who, if given power, planned to install a military dictatorship backed by the US.

Well, it turns out that Harper's a decent human being and a good father. In the next election, he'll have the advantage of incumbency, many Canadians are comfortable with him and they may say he's earned his chance at a majority.

[geoffrey]

1. Zac is no longer the Top Cop to pull a dummy investigation against Ralph Goodale, of all people, towards the end of an election campaign.

Hardly a dummy investigation, Brison sent the e-mail. He was the insider no doubt. Was he guilty of the crime, maybe not so clear...

2. People who ran under the Green banner are asking Dion to run as Liberals.

Good for the Conservatives. Environment isn't a swing issue. Those that are greenies are already Liberals.

3. Layton has lost his bloom and his support.

Agreed. But the NDP was always irrelevant. Just more so recently.

4. Harper does not have a plan for the environment whereas Dion is primed to go with what Steve canceled, plus much more.

Dion has a record of absolute failure on the environment. Don't think he's going to get away with 13 years of skyrocketing emissions with no plan and a failure to meet our commitments on the international stage.

If I were a Liberal, I'd tread lightly on environment. The Liberals are strong on taxes... Harper raised taxes this year... campaign on that. And!!! People actually care about taxes, that will swing votes from the CPC to the Liberals.

5. Steve has pi**ed off the women's vote with his systematically destruction of the Status of Women by cutting their funding and eliminating all reference of "equality" on the government web site as pertaining to women.

If any woman actually believes that they are so incapable of dealing with their own affairs that they require government assistance to be as good as man, they've got greater issues. Women are equals to men, time for the government to realise that and stop treating them like children. Women deserve better.

No one has ever become successful from a government program like Status of Women.

6. Dion has more heart.

Harper has more fight. It's tough.

[hiti]

You cannot keep on ignoring Dion's Project Green program that was implemented and was starting to work towards attaining the goals set by Kyoto. Harper canceled all Project Green programs and announced that the Liberals did nothing for the economy. A total liar that Steve.

You obviously do not understand women and what has been happening to them and why many need assistance from the Status of Women. That's okay, they won't vote for Steve anymore.

It takes more that to have more fight.

[Figleaf]

Peter C Newman ... Michael Ignatieff, ... personified the spirit of Canada'a current economic and social renaissance.."[/i]

:puke:

Were Newman and Ignatieff room-mates at UCC or something?